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AJ multiway with fish, turn heat with gutshot + NFD

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  1. #1
    Join Date
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    Default AJ multiway with fish, turn heat with gutshot + NFD

    UTG+1 is an uber-fish who is a good reason to be at the table. He's like 66-4 and running like god.
    CO is special, a 24-5 who runs incredibly hot over the 2k hands i have on him. He folds 70% to cbets and has aggression factor 3. SB is another loose-aggro-fish 32-10-4 but can fold post-flop.
    BB is another of the 20-4 crowd but kinda fold/passive.

    C-betting this board 4-way seems a waste of $. Turn I call the donk cos I have pot-odds to the FD, but after the CO raise, SB call and BB weirdness it's time for a decision. Sure, these guys may be dumb, but they aren't completely blind. Initially it looks like 13 outs call ldo, but really? I'm counting 8 clean outs, and it's likely that i'm against a flush or flush draw making it 6 or 7 = ez fold?

    I folded, for what it's worth, but banked before doing so. Was i being too conservative?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button ($110.50)
    SB ($30)
    BB ($49)
    UTG ($154.30)
    UTG+1 ($106.15)
    Hero (MP1) ($104.40)
    MP2 ($54.50)
    MP3 ($104.60)
    CO ($93.50)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, A
    1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero bets $4.50, 2 folds, CO calls $4.50, 1 fold, SB calls $4, BB calls $3.50, 1 fold

    Flop: ($19) 7, 9, 3 (4 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

    Turn: ($19) 8 (4 players)
    SB bets $7, BB calls $7, Hero calls $7, CO raises to $29, SB calls $18.50 (All-In), BB raises to $44.50 (All-In), Hero folds, CO calls $15.50
  2. #2
    Guest
    no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
    the end
  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
    the end
    give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
  4. #4
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by daven
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
    the end
    give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
    I'm not giving them particular hands
    I'm giving them ranges
  5. #5
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    one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by daven
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
    the end
    give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
    Quote Originally Posted by daven
    one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
    Was there a reason you posted if you know what they have? Figure out the equity and see if it's a good spot or not.
  7. #7
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by daven
    one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
    why wouldn't both players have a set? that can never happen?
  8. #8
    i think it's a good fold since we don't close the action and the CO (who has shown the most strength here) nearly has a full stack and is likely to shove a large % of the time.
    3k post - Return of the blog!
  9. #9
    Easy fold.
  10. #10
    yeah def fold.
    "This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
  11. #11
    I like the hand as played. CO isn't that likely to raise here without a near-nut hand which doesn't seem likely after the flop. Nice call, nice fold.

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