Lets talk about the bet/check/bet line

[Irisheyes]

I think this is a line which goes in cycles in terms of whether it's primarily a bluff or a VB. Without a ton of reads or past hands I think it's difficult enough to know what to do on the river in spots like the one below and you can often be making a large mistake since in my experience the villains frequencies are often heavily skewed towards either bluffs or VB's.

So it makes me wonder what the best way to adjust is. Call a lot on the river? Fold a lot? Depolarize our turn betting range? How does what we might know about the villains turn betting ranges affect or decision in this hand?

Discuss... I guess??

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($203.80)
CO ($549.40)
Hero (BTN) ($388.00)
SB ($90.15)
BB ($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is BTN
1 folds, CO raises to $11.50, Hero calls $11.50 2 folds,

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
CO bets $19.5, Hero calls $19.5

Turn: ($64, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($64, 2 players)
CO bets $52.50,

[Irisheyes]

Villain is a TAG reg 22/18/3 or whatever obviously.

how does that rep a bluff? it reps a weak queen
now if villain understands that, and wants to use that as a bluff... that's more of a level?

if you don't want to deal with it, bet the turn for a free showdown
although in this case it would be bad because there are no draws he could peel with since he'd barrel a picked up spade draw
in general when we check the turn back, isn't our intention to call a lot of rivers? our hand is too good to bluff with and we beat everything but his weak queens that decide to play this way

therefore his range is polarized to a weak hand with showdown value and air which means that we only need to estimate how often he runs this line with his bluffs
one danger is that he could merge his range and vbet 77-JJ which would make it a more difficult spot since his range will be wider and be more difficult to play against

in conclusion I have no idea what I'm talking about I should have wrote this in my blog

[mixchange]

On this board I'd side with a value bet. The only time Id see this as a bluff is if you two had a very specific dynamic

Great thread btw, love the topic

[Marshall28]

Do you actually think he thinks you'll fold anything on the river that you called with on the flop? I'd need a specific dynamic to make that assessment. I highly doubt it here.

[Irisheyes]

Do you actually think he thinks you'll fold anything on the river that you called with on the flop? I'd need a specific dynamic to make that assessment. I highly doubt it here.

I think he knows pretty much exactly what I have. If I knew what he thought I would do vs a bet I'd like to think I wouldn't need to make the post.

Edit: Sorry that was snarky. If you'd need a read to call with 88 than I'd submit that villains line is a great bluff even in the absence of reads other than 'TAG'.

[Irisheyes]

if you don't want to deal with it, bet the turn for a free showdown

Yeah I kinda think that this might be a good idea when we play against people who might tend to make life difficult on the river.

But then if I change the hand above so that I open and I get 3bet from the blinds and I call. If the board and action runs out the same, then what do I do on the turn? b/f can be a much bigger mistake then.

[mixchange]

Do you actually think he thinks you'll fold anything on the river that you called with on the flop? I'd need a specific dynamic to make that assessment. I highly doubt it here.

I think he knows pretty much exactly what I have. If I knew what he thought I would do vs a bet I'd like to think I wouldn't need to make the post.

Edit: Sorry that was snarky. If you'd need a read to call with 88 than I'd submit that villains line is a great bluff even in the absence of reads other than 'TAG'.

this is the dynamic i'm talking about. most of the time this is an easy muck. From his perspective, I can't see him making this bluff without history

[zook]

Your average player is repping a pretty narrow range here, something like KQ/QJ/QT. I think a good player who thinks you're solid/tight could make a bluff here, but I'd fold without a read.

[mcatdog]

From his perspective, I can't see him making this bluff without history

Explain? I think it's the exact opposite.

[Fnord]

Add AA/KK/QQ/66/44 to his range going for the stack-a-donk/fu-floater line.

[Marshall28]

if you don't want to deal with it, bet the turn for a free showdown

Yeah I kinda think that this might be a good idea when we play against people who might tend to make life difficult on the river.

But then if I change the hand above so that I open and I get 3bet from the blinds and I call. If the board and action runs out the same, then what do I do on the turn? b/f can be a much bigger mistake then.

I think the decision in this spot really just comes down to your overall strategy. For example, if I were calling a lot of his 3bets, I would likely want my floating range to be very wide for value as I'm probably calling since I expect him to be 3betting too much. In this case, I would be calling flop and betting turn when checked to in order to protect my floating range, induce bluffs and light call downs, and fold him off naked overcards that have 6 outs against me. If I were raising the flop on him a lot after he 3bet, I would probably be checking behind in this spot (were it the case that I called the flop), since my flop raising range would need to be stronger in general and I'm not so concerned about my floating range and just looking to get to showdown in this instance, or trying to induce a river bluff by making it look like I'm checking behind turn to bet river if checked to again.

If you don't know your overall strategy against what your opponent is doing, you will be lost here like 100% of the time I think.

[Marshall28]

Do you actually think he thinks you'll fold anything on the river that you called with on the flop? I'd need a specific dynamic to make that assessment. I highly doubt it here.

I think he knows pretty much exactly what I have. If I knew what he thought I would do vs a bet I'd like to think I wouldn't need to make the post.

Edit: Sorry that was snarky. If you'd need a read to call with 88 than I'd submit that villains line is a great bluff even in the absence of reads other than 'TAG'.

It's a great bluff against a good thinking player who calls the flop a bit too light there. Unless you don't call flop too light and it's not extremely reasonable for him to believe you have a Q a high % of the time, I think.

[Irisheyes]

From his perspective, I can't see him making this bluff without history

Explain? I think it's the exact opposite.

I agree with mcat

it's not extremely reasonable for him to believe you have a Q a high % of the time, I think.

Only Q I would ever check behind on the turn is like QTs/Q9s if I had them. Thats like 6 combos in total. The rest of my check back range is 67s/56s/68s/A6s/A4s/57s/77-JJ. Thats obviously way way more combos than 6 so I think it would be rather unreasonable for him to believe I have a Q a high % of the time.

I think villains these days realise this and that's why I think that this river spot has become important to talk about.

[mixchange]

maybe I had false conceptions of villains dynamic with us, vs. a bad player I would expect bluffs but vs. a reg (not necessarily good) player less bluffs.
against reg players in this spot I see them vbetting a huge majority vs. worse/air, but that's just against me (20/17 tightish). I see a lot of regs betting flop checking turn and betting river with weak TP and mid pair hands

[mcatdog]

maybe I had false conceptions of villains dynamic with us, vs. a bad player I would expect bluffs but vs. a reg (not necessarily good) player less bluffs.

I don't know why you keep talking about history and villain's dynamic with us when the OP asked about what to do against a reg you don't have much history against. He even said that if he had a better read on villain, he wouldn't even need to start a thread about such a common situation.

To elaborate, villain is repping a fairly narrow range of Qx/2x which means that if you know villain is capable of bluffing here with any reasonable frequency, you have an easy call with any bluff catcher like 88. If there's that type of history then I don't think many regs will bluff in this spot, but if there isn't history of hero seeing villain take this line as a bluff, then I think villain might be much more likely to bluff here as hero very rarely has top pair or better.

[Da GOAT]

what hands wud be in your betting river range if checked to?

[Irisheyes]

I could see myself VB 88 given certain conditions.

[mixchange]

maybe I had false conceptions of villains dynamic with us, vs. a bad player I would expect bluffs but vs. a reg (not necessarily good) player less bluffs.

I don't know why you keep talking about history and villain's dynamic with us when the OP asked about what to do against a reg you don't have much history against. He even said that if he had a better read on villain, he wouldn't even need to start a thread about such a common situation.

To elaborate, villain is repping a fairly narrow range of Qx/2x which means that if you know villain is capable of bluffing here with any reasonable frequency, you have an easy call with any bluff catcher like 88. If there's that type of history then I don't think many regs will bluff in this spot, but if there isn't history of hero seeing villain take this line as a bluff, then I think villain might be much more likely to bluff here as hero very rarely has top pair or better.

Yeah my first answer was straightforward, but I was trying to figure out why I was seeing this different.

Most of the time in the games i play, on such a dry board average regs frequently are pot controlling mid pairs and weak queens with the line in this thread, also hoping to get value from weak pairs. I'd see a lot of 77-JJ and weak queens in this spot if I called vs. most of the regs I play

I expect most of the regs if they are bluffing to bet bet rather than bet check

[bode]

maybe I had false conceptions of villains dynamic with us, vs. a bad player I would expect bluffs but vs. a reg (not necessarily good) player less bluffs.

I don't know why you keep talking about history and villain's dynamic with us when the OP asked about what to do against a reg you don't have much history against. He even said that if he had a better read on villain, he wouldn't even need to start a thread about such a common situation.

To elaborate, villain is repping a fairly narrow range of Qx/2x which means that if you know villain is capable of bluffing here with any reasonable frequency, you have an easy call with any bluff catcher like 88. If there's that type of history then I don't think many regs will bluff in this spot, but if there isn't history of hero seeing villain take this line as a bluff, then I think villain might be much more likely to bluff here as hero very rarely has top pair or better.

Yeah my first answer was straightforward, but I was trying to figure out why I was seeing this different.

Most of the time in the games i play, on such a dry board average regs frequently are pot controlling mid pairs and weak queens with the line in this thread, also hoping to get value from weak pairs. I'd see a lot of 77-JJ and weak queens in this spot if I called vs. most of the regs I play

I expect most of the regs if they are bluffing to bet bet rather than bet check

i would agree with this, alteast in the 1/2 games on full tilt. This line is 90% Q9/QT/77-JJ.

[Irisheyes]

Just to check since me and Marshall talked a bit about this last night, if you are villain in this hand, your double barrelling frequency with air will be pretty high on this turn right?

[mixchange]

yes irish. well if i am going to bluff 2streets here it will be on the turn. But I might not bother if villain is decent at hand reading or will call down fairly light.

[Da GOAT]

its interesting;

do regs at 400nl+ c/c there big hands here since all hands calling a bet will bet themselves like 77+. And can they bet 4x, 55 or A high here since they figure they are beat and can get you to fold weak made hand.

if they just play face up and not really thinking deep then they will just bet Qx+ on river and check 4x, 55, A high for showdown.

I think the bet/check line is a sophisticated bluff against people who would expect to only see 77-JJ, Qx in this spot because the check on the turn reps that range so well

[Irisheyes]

its interesting;

do regs at 400nl+ c/c there big hands here since all hands calling a bet will bet themselves like 77+.

Well I think most regs aren't betting anything less than a Q and some will even check that back.

[Da GOAT]

How do u mean check it back when opp is oop? I meant villian here c/c ing his Qx, 99-JJ here since hero cud vb A6, 77-JJ. If he thinks u can fold all underpairs on river then he shud bet all 4x, 55, A & K high since he really doesn't have showdown compared to your range on river.

If hero won't vb the hands I mentioned ie thin vb then villian shud be betting thin himself as c/c ing is then a bad play.

I'm kinds gettin this line of thought from a jman vid and I've also added it to my game and seems to work.

[Marshall28]

its interesting;

do regs at 400nl+ c/c there big hands here since all hands calling a bet will bet themselves like 77+. And can they bet 4x, 55 or A high here since they figure they are beat and can get you to fold weak made hand.

if they just play face up and not really thinking deep then they will just bet Qx+ on river and check 4x, 55, A high for showdown.

They very good ones will c/c their big hands here knowing they should be getting a ton of folds on the turn. Most are so spewy though that I doubt it.

[Irisheyes]

Goat maybe I misunderstood. I took it that you meant that good regs (villain in the hand) would c/c the river with Qx/JJ "since all hands calling a bet will bet themselves like 77+". I was saying that this isn't the case since you can't expect most people (in hero's spot) to value bet thinly on the river.

You mean they should c/c the turn with JJ etc? c/c-ing the turn with JJ or Q9 would be really bad imo, I'd definitely do anything other than that.

[Irisheyes]

Just to check since me and Marshall talked a bit about this last night, if you are villain in this hand, your double barrelling frequency with air will be pretty high on this turn right?

To emphasise this point a bit more: HAND 2, TURN BARREL

Villain is 22/19/3 reg, doesn't fold to cbets too much at all (47%). Plays well mostly. This would be standard for all you guys right?

$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($1028.26)
CO ($765.20)
BTN ($539.68)
SB ($495.00)
BB ($2063.86)

Pre-flop: ($7.50, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $17.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $17.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($42.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN calls $30

Turn: ($102.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $72,

[Marshall28]

I like it a little better on J83-6, or when we have AQcc for obvious reasons. But I think it's good.

[Da GOAT]

I like the turn barrel to hand 2 if it's T+ since we can vb those too. even if we have Ax.

[bode]

you obv. cant fire the flop & turn on every dry flop/blank turn board you come across but since villain will be peeling such a wide range on that board it makes it a profitable double barrel.

[Da GOAT]

Goat maybe I misunderstood. I took it that you meant that good regs (villain in the hand) would c/c the river with Qx/JJ "since all hands calling a bet will bet themselves like 77+". I was saying that this isn't the case since you can't expect most people (in hero's spot) to value bet thinly on the river.

You mean they should c/c the turn with JJ etc? c/c-ing the turn with JJ or Q9 would be really bad imo, I'd definitely do anything other than that.

Iwasnt referring to the turn. If hero ain't vb thinly then villian shud bet Qx, JJ hoping for a call from 88 types. Since the board contains no draws that whiffed on board then it's prob a river fold.

[minSim]

I'm not sure,
- Is your turn range on this board after raising UTG that wide
- and villains preflop call and flop floating range that wide
(isn't his FTCB low just because he's rarely calling preflop?)

that you want to be bluffing here much?

Are you trying to get 99-QQ to fold? If so, your Q kicker is of no importance, and then I like barreling A3s/A6s/A8s/76s/basically pair+card a lot more.

[Da GOAT]

minsim, the point is his turn range is narrow so alot of vbing on the turn. I don't think turn is a great card to barrel tho. Opp range is mostly narrow but it's v weak so barreling can be good since he will likely call river if turn is checked thru.

The Q is good for us coz we can vb a pair of Q on turn or river.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Hand 1 I'd fold, I doubt anyone thinks your going to fold a pair here unless he's leveling you. Although range wise on the river he has so much more air compared to made hands if he had even a small tendency to bluff in this spot I'd call. However, I don't think he does.

[mixchange]

Hand 1 I'd fold, I doubt anyone thinks your going to fold a pair here unless he's leveling you. Although range wise on the river he has so much more air compared to made hands if he had even a small tendency to bluff in this spot I'd call. However, I don't think he does.

This is a really simple and excellent way to summarize and makes me think about the spot a little diff. thx

[Irisheyes]

ISF would you bet the turn in the second hand?

[Marshall28]

Hand 1 I'd fold, I doubt anyone thinks your going to fold a pair here unless he's leveling you. Although range wise on the river he has so much more air compared to made hands if he had even a small tendency to bluff in this spot I'd call. However, I don't think he does.

This is a really simple and excellent way to summarize and makes me think about the spot a little diff. thx

Trying to understand how this says anything different at all from my original post on the topic? Why is it so easy to understand when ISF says it?

[Irisheyes]

lol

[Numbr2intheWorld]

bingo

[Marshall28]

lol stop making fun of me im serious. : )

[minSim]

minsim, the point is his turn range is narrow so alot of vbing on the turn. I don't think turn is a great card to barrel tho. Opp range is mostly narrow but it's v weak so barreling can be good since he will likely call river if turn is checked thru.

The Q is good for us coz we can vb a pair of Q on turn or river.

I'm not getting you. You mean villains turn range is narrow, so hero should vbet a lot....meaning not bluffing much, and not this hand?
And when we check turn it'll get checked through a lot and we can vbet an A/Q river?

[mixchange]

sometimes short response is clearer

Hand 2 a barrel is better if you opened on the CO and the button flatted
I think people are conditioned to auto-float dry flops with low pps

even like 66
this is because your CO range is wide and doesn't always hit this flop so you get floated lighter
your UTG range is like all pps and Kx/Ax (maybe some scs) which is likely to be crushing the button's flop range so his "float" is probably stronger on average