100NL,QQ in a tricky spot

[pokerfan]

Mp3 is nitty 9/6/3.5 and a 3 bet % 1.4 over 900 hands. CO is a regular running 17/12/2.6 and a 3 bet% 2.3. BT (3 bet cold caller) is 34/12/1.7 over 20 hands. Whats the best move here for QQ?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($192.45)
MP2 ($60)
MP3 ($108.85)
CO ($147.50)
Button ($103.30)
SB ($39)
BB ($49.90)
UTG ($119.65)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4, CO raises $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds, Hero ?

I would call although shipping it in is probably not a big mistake if it is one

[Beck]

wow I really hate this, folding is not a horrible mistake either.

[jessyj]

Do you have history and/or a retarded image? If not I'd fold w/o much thought.

[badgers]

shipping is probably a massive mistake 150BB deep

[ZwiFT]

I don't see any other play than call?

[Da GOAT]

fold>call>4bet

only we are deep, opps have 100bb

[pokerfan]

Do you have history and/or a retarded image? If not I'd fold w/o much thought.

i had 4 bet/5 bet shove history with CO at another table in Button/SB war. His QQ won the flip vs my AK.

[badgers]

fold>call>4bet

only we are deep, opps have 100bb

lies

[ZwiFT]

fold>call>4bet

only we are deep, opps have 100bb

dubblelies

[Deanglow]

folding looks pretty awful, raising slightly less so.

call and play a flop

[Renton]

folding is ok
calling is slightly better
shoving is bad with this hand specifically, but would fine with AK or a suited ace.

[ZwiFT]

folding is ok
calling is slightly better
shoving is bad with this hand specifically, but would fine with AK or a suited ace.

Its abit retarded to say folding is ok and calling is slightly better, when in cashgames you "should" take every +50% equity after rake, all the odds and foldequity as you can do. And this seems like an easy spot to analyze and do that on, and is also very easy to play post flop. I'm pretty sure raising AKo/s here is -ev because the little fold equity we have, even if we were 100bb deep.. I can calculate it later on

[Renton]

yes, i agree, its definitely retarded to say +$0.05 ev with potential 140bb deviations is slightly better than 0 ev with 0 deviation.

[Renton]

as for whether its good to shove AK or a suited ace, thats obviously assuming there is fold equity, which i think htere is for sure, as the deep 3bettor should seriously consider folding qq and ak

[oskar]

I've been watching this thread because I have no idea what I would do.
My first impulse was raise to 35, and hope to get CO to either tank or shove fast, but if he calls and Button calls... and blah... it's all very bad.

If you're calling, you're pretty much set mining and hoping MP3 comes along? I mean, what's the plan on J92, 458...?

The reason why I liked raising initially was because we're pretty likely to have mp3 and btn in bad shape and we turn them into dead money and get to play HU with CO.

[pokerfan]

In the heat of the moment, i chose to call and decided to proceed with caution OOP. Yeah, i do think that calling is slightly better than other options. The question here is how we play our overpairs on the flop with 3 low cards in a 4-way 3 bet pot.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($192.45)
MP2 ($60)
MP3 ($108.85)
CO ($147.50)
Button ($103.30)
SB ($39)
BB ($49.90)
UTG ($119.65)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4, CO raises $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds, Hero calls $14, MP3 calls $14

Flop: ($73.50) T, 7, 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets $41, Hero ?

[ZwiFT]

as for whether its good to shove AK or a suited ace, thats obviously assuming there is fold equity, which i think htere is for sure, as the deep 3bettor should seriously consider folding qq and ak

Taking into consideration:

- CO has QQ+AK in his range, and fold QQ and AK 100% of the time
- Button and MP3 folds 100% of the time to your shove

Even with this, shoving AK here is big -EV total, not to mention the big deviation it will cause.

I agree that folding QQ here is ok because of the high deviation, esp if your a player who get easy tilted for big losses, but remember that big deviation can also cause huge upswings! Besides the deviation for fullring is so low in general that I dont mind it at all

[elipsesjeff]

Folding preflop would make us extremely exploitable so i agree with Deanglow. If the squeezer had nittier stats I'd have less of a problem letting it go. I'd like to know his SB/BB/squeeze 3bet %s over just a general % before I give this number any credit.

As played I ship the flop.

[mcatdog]

I would fold if the CO bet the flop but shove against the button. Sucks if MP3 wakes up with a big hand but I don't think that will happen too often.

[surviva316]

I agree that folding QQ here is ok because of the high deviation, esp if your a player who get easy tilted for big losses, but remember that big deviation can also cause huge upswings! Besides the deviation for fullring is so low in general that I dont mind it at all

Renton's $0.05 w 140bb deviation was obviously a bit of an exaggeration, but if this scenario happened like once every 20,000 hands, you could literally play millions of hands and never make a single dime from making the right play here (if there's a $.05 EV with that big of a deviation for a given decision)...

yes, i agree, its definitely retarded to say +$0.05 ev with potential 140bb deviations is slightly better than 0 ev with 0 deviation.

it is slightly better
it's $0.05 better duh

[Seabass]

Any raise pre is bad. Both calling and folding is ok imo. Your position aint great and your hand is marginal.

I assume people will (not the btn) be honest on the flop giving the preflop action. I might bet like 1/3 pot or so, a info/value bet if you will. I would like to avoid the spot you now find yourself in.

Like if I where the CO with AA here I would check a lot of the time knowing that the btn is almost sure to bet.

[Parasurama]

BTN's betsizing looks soooooo strong to me

[pokerfan]

BTN's betsizing looks soooooo strong to me

yeah, he bet strong with the second best hand. :P