10NL: JJ IP vs nit

[Gobbatino]

Villain is 10/9 over 400 hands or so and is quite passive but does c-bet flops 55%. Only pertinent read is he is not positinally aware. Is this a good time to call and re-evaluate on the turn or is a raise best? Say I call and the turn comes a blank and he fires again, when am I letting this hand go without being overly nitty? Or is the time to let it go even back on flop considering how tight this dude is?

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($30.41)
SB ($4.44)
BB ($11.27)
UTG ($10.04)
MP ($10.65)
CO ($8.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
1 fold, MP bets $0.35, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.85) 7, 3, 10 (2 players)
MP bets $0.85, Hero ???

[sarbox68]

Assuming he's opening 9% from all positions and is completely positionally unaware... You're a 2:1 favorite vs that range on this board. If you assume he only cbets the top 1/2 of this range, so something like TT+,AKo,AhTh,KhQh,AhJh,AQs+,KTs, you've still got 44% equity. I'm not sure I'm raising the flop unless I have some compelling reason to (i.e. high fold to c-bet-raise stat), as I don't like my chances against his calling/raising range being that nitty. But I'm not folding. I call and see what he does on the Turn.

Also - you chose not to 3bet pre-, I'm assuming in part because a) you didn't like your odds vs. his calling/4bet range and b) you wanted to be able to get value from missed overs. So his overs missed. What kind of board were you planning on continuing with if not this one?

sarbox, we shouldn't raise the flop if he has a high fold to flop raise
we should call

if he has a LOW fold to flop raise we should raise
DUCY?

[surviva316]

call flop, and there are a lot of cards that come on the turn that improve your equity (J, 9, 8 or heart), so it's hard to generalize our turn actions. i'm folding if the turn comes Q+ and he fires again because even if he's capable of double barreling us his range still pwns us

[sarbox68]

sarbox, we shouldn't raise the flop if he has a high fold to flop raise
we should call

if he has a LOW fold to flop raise we should raise
DUCY?

'cause we fold out what we beat in the former and what get called by sh!t we beat in the latter....

[Gobbatino]

Ok, fair enough, I follow so far. I did call and the turn came 8c, giving me the gutshot. Villain fires a 4/5 pot bet. And den?

[Parasurama]

Call again ldo

[surviva316]

i mean if his show down stats are as nitty as his PF ones then i think it's profitable to shove here. again assuming he's a complete nit, he folds 99 and JJ+ here which is 25 hands and calls with all of his sets (12 hands) and unless he's double barrelling with like AK or AQ (which he isn't) then those are the only hands he has. so we have >67% fold equity and we have 6 outs against any of the hands he's calling with.

EDIT: reread the HH and realized that he doesn't have 33 here very often, so he's only calling with 9 hands (one more time, assuming he's as nitty postflop as he is pre)

[bigspenda73]

QQ is so much more interesting than JJ here

turn is a call, but plan on bluffing hearts and tens, as calling the turn purely w/ your own equity is not enough against his PF/Flop/Turn range.

[JoeHaw]

but plan on bluffing hearts and tens, as calling the turn purely w/ your own equity is not enough against his PF/Flop/Turn range.

This is crucial I think. I got stuck in a spot like this live against a friend of mine and it's important that you get some FE out of QQ+ when the right card comes.

[surviva316]

yeah i thought the board was scarier than it was when i read it last night. i don't think we can rely on villain folding QQ+ in this spot often enough for it to be profitable. another heart is a wtf easy card to bluff because villain has a flush in like 3 maybe 4 have his hand combos. if he calls with QQ+ with on heart in it though, we're screwed.

if a ten comes we're not repping the hugest range ever but it's big enough to get a nit to fold