JJ BTN vs SB nitty

[bspahn]

opp: 17/14/3.8 with 3bet 7%

flop call imo is fine
can we call once more and fold to a river shove? means we are repping a floated AQ/AK only?? (wouldnt I raise a set on flop or turn?)

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG big-shoot ($184.20)
UTG+1 vinc25 ($197.00)
CO swedishsnake ($117.15)
BTN Hero ($197.00)
SB injenowge ($415.95)
BB gogidi ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $6, injenowge raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $14

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
injenowge bets $26, Hero calls $26

Turn: ($94, 2 players)
injenowge bets $55

Final Pot: $149

[The Izebox]

I have a tendancy to get carried away in blind battles, but I feel as if this is a perfect situation to 4 bet preflop. i feel that by flatting its hard to define your hand. I also dont like the flat on the flop. Again, I would pop him right there and try to take it down rather than face a touhg decision on the turn. At the end of the day your facing calling 55 on the turn on top of the 32 you already put in. It would be a lot cheaper to pop him preflop and take it down. The hands that are calling a four bet preflop are going to be taking down the pot in the above situation regardless.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

felting JJ preflop is usually easier to do than play it HU in a 3bet pot vs this type of player

since it's BTN vs blind and the board is drawy, i'd raise the flop to 70 and call a shove.

shove turn is your best option now, the river is going to be a very tough spot to bluffcatch without some unique knowledge about this TAG.

[Renton]

pretty standard 4bet pre for me

i think i would just dump it on turn (vi-zeroskill wtf?)

he's not gonna bet that flop texture with a super wide range, so by the time the ace comes you are really almost never good, imo.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

pretty standard 4bet pre for me

i think i would just dump it on turn (vi-zeroskill wtf?)

he's not gonna bet that flop texture with a super wide range, so by the time the ace comes you are really almost never good, imo.

lol stoned, obviously i was wrongg

[bjsaust]

Raise flop?

56 on the flop

[bigspenda73]

why are we raising flop you guys?

why are we raising flop you guys?

for value, for protection, to protect our bluffs and semi-bluffs
villain sometimes can't let go of T9 if turn is a low card, definitely felts TT if he's in this situation

basically for the same reason that 4b pre is also good here

[bigspenda73]

run me a range where raise/calling the flop is profitable

Board: 9d 2d 8c

Hand 0: 57.414% { TT+, 22, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, QdTd, JTs, Td7d, JTo }
Hand 1: 42.586% { JcJd }

(no 88/99 because I am assuming he flats 66-99 pre)
and we have some fold equity vs. hands that have outs like AK
notice it's pretty close to the same situation preflop, where against his range when we 4b/call we're probably like

Hand 0: 56.771% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.229% { JcJd }

but getting him to fold his 3b bluffs may have some value because we're folding on a KQx board even if he holds 75s and we sometimes run into a 5b bluff which makes us EV+ here


so I think if we flat we should raise the flop, and 4b pre is actually better because we crush his 5b bluffs harder than we crush his flop semi-bluffs

[Sir Pawnalot]

Only hands we get value from when raising is; AK, AQ and TT. If villain ha some random hands in his preflop 3 bet range- like 9Ts, TJs (not diamonds), 68s etc.

It really depends on his preflop 3 bet range. If he only 3 bets 7% I guess his range is a lot AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs, AK, AQs

We do not lose much value from calling instead of raising against the combinations we beat, but we lose a lot of chips versus the combinations that beat us; 89s, TJd, AKd, AQd, 99, QQ, KK, AA.

Basically, we dont lose much value from calling- but we lose a lot when we are behind and decide to raise it.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Why do you put hands like A4d in his range? Wasnt this a tightish 3-bettor?

sir pawnalot, 7% is not TT+,AQ+
that's 3.4% considering we block his jacks so half of the time it's some Axs, 22-55, 97s type of crap

Why do you put hands like A4d in his range? Wasnt this a tightish 3-bettor?

I 3b 6.1% and I have all kinds of trash in my range

[bigspenda73]

(no 88/99 because I am assuming he flats 66-99 pre)

convenient that you drew the line at 99 and not TT, they're all weighted here, you have to have some combos of 88/99/22 in his PF range and you didn't even put AKdd, AQdd in there. I'd agree that a more fundamentally sound poker player is more likely to have 22 than 88/99 here but this is some nitbot, so I cannot assume that just yet.

[Sir Pawnalot]

That changes things quite a bit. It is also very important what his c-bet frequency is in 3-bet pots, and his continuing range after the flop raise.

We need him to both have a wide 3-bet range and a fairly wide continuing range to make a raise EV MAX.

(no 88/99 because I am assuming he flats 66-99 pre)

convenient that you drew the line at 99 and not TT, they're all weighted here, you have to have some combos of 88/99/22 in his PF range and you didn't even put AKdd, AQdd in there. I'd agree that a more fundamentally sound poker player is more likely to have 22 than 88/99 here but this is some nitbot, so I cannot assume that just yet.

well I was going by what I do personally, I never 3b 99, and sometimes 3b TT

and yeah, I missed AdKd and a few more flush draw hands, but our equity is not going to go below 35%:

Hand 0: 60.314% { 88+, 22, AdKd, AdQd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, QdTd, JTs, Td7d, JTo }
Hand 1: 39.686% { JcJd }

I think with 35% raise/call is break-even but I didn't do the math exactly

That changes things quite a bit. It is also very important what his c-bet frequency is in 3-bet pots, and his continuing range after the flop raise.

We need him to both have a wide 3-bet range and a fairly wide continuing range to make a raise EV MAX.

it's really hard to model a call, I can only say that raising is EV+
so I don't know which maximizes our EV, a raise or a call, I'm only saying that we should be raising this flop as a semi-bluff a lot which is why we should have more value hands in our range to balance it

[bigspenda73]

I think with 35% raise/call is break-even but I didn't do the math exactly

how is going out of your way to get your money in as a 35-40% dog ever a good thing?

I think with 35% raise/call is break-even but I didn't do the math exactly

how is going out of your way to get your money in as a 35-40% dog ever a good thing?

to win the money already in the pot
you forget that half of the time that he folds AKo here or other crap that can unfortunately still beat us on the turn

[bigspenda73]

you're assuming he bets those hands on the flop

you're assuming he bets those hands on the flop

I think it's a common leak at 1/2

[Luke999]

How loose are you on the button, I really don't see a half competent reg esp with stats like 17/14 3betting junk OOP if he knows you can flat a wide range of hands and he is gonna be burning a ton of money.

How loose are you on the button, I really don't see a half competent reg esp with stats like 17/14 3betting junk OOP if he knows you can flat a wide range of hands and he is gonna be burning a ton of money.

not 100BB deep it's not
when you flat you are basically saying "I rarely, if ever, have the top of my range"
I think this is one of the most common 3b spots

[Luke999]

How loose are you on the button, I really don't see a half competent reg esp with stats like 17/14 3betting junk OOP if he knows you can flat a wide range of hands and he is gonna be burning a ton of money.

not 100BB deep it's not
when you flat you are basically saying "I rarely, if ever, have the top of my range"
I think this is one of the most common 3b spots

Well it depends on how you play OTB which is what I was asking.
And yes raising trash OOP in the longrun against a person that plays very well on the button is burning money.

How loose are you on the button, I really don't see a half competent reg esp with stats like 17/14 3betting junk OOP if he knows you can flat a wide range of hands and he is gonna be burning a ton of money.

not 100BB deep it's not
when you flat you are basically saying "I rarely, if ever, have the top of my range"
I think this is one of the most common 3b spots

Well it depends on how you play OTB which is what I was asking.
And yes raising trash OOP in the longrun against a person that plays very well on the button is burning money.

well you're wrong about that because it's not burning money
"it depends" is the correct answer

for example, if my 3b range is {QQ+,AK,72o} I'm pretty sure I will show a profit 3bing 72o OOP because every reg in the world will see I am 3bing 3% and snapfold to 3bs without premiums
but omg! it's 3bing trash OOP!

if you're asking me, then personally I have 53% ATS so 3bing me light from the blinds is going to be profitable no matter what

[Renton]

sigh raising the flop is inconsistent with flat calling pre

case closed

[bjsaust]

Why cant we raise flop for protection? We're going to see an overcard a lot.

In the heat of the moment I probably play the same and fold turn, but theres some value and protection by raising isn't there?

7% 3bet probably means a bit higher in the blinds v's btn raise, and could easily include a bunch of suited stuff.

[bspahn]

one thing to consider as well is that i have a very high fold to 3bet, generally around 70% (i dont think its bad, but i know tons of 1/2 regs are closer to 50% ...)

in any case, the reason why i dont like to 4bet pre or raise this flop is because i think it's just too close to neutral ev.

if i 4bet pre he's ONLY getting it in with JJ+/AK as I dont have a huge 4bet% and on the flop if we raise I'm only getting all in with a lot of hands that either beat me or are a slight dog like big draws. i'm only crushing TT here honestly.

ONE comment I did like however is that if we are bluff raising flops like this then obv i should be doing it with decent hands as well. I'm generally not in the mood for bluff raising with complete air in general so I rarely raise here unless I have a big hand or big draw

[Renton]

4betting pre isn't neutral ev, its massively +ev.

[bspahn]

ok i'm going to need some help here!
i know JJ is a good hand obv, but here are some concerns:

if i'm not a 4bet monkey and they know that and I fold to most 3bets, then if I 4bet/get it in here a guy like this with 3bet 7% and reasonably tight stats simply is NOT going to stack off with AQ/AJ/TT/99 type hands, in which case the only reason for 4betting here is to get a FOLD pre... in which case my hand could be anything really...

I think two things need to happen before this is hugely +EV to 4bet/get it in pre:

1) i need to have a reasonably high 4bet (means I have to bluff a lot more in these spots (ie junk hands)
2) his FOLD TO 4bet needs to be small so I am more confident he'll get hands that I crush in.


Basically over the last couple of months in this exact spot when I have been 4bet/getting it in i'm facing QQ+/AK about 90% of the time against these types of guys. That's why I've opted to flat pre

[Renton]

or you simply need to accept that people with 7% 3bet are gonna 3bet a massive range sb/button which includes auto stacking with TT and sometimes worse regardless of what a nit you are.

[Renton]

and if you really feel his range is so nitty that he only continues with QQ+ AK (then clearly you should 4bet bluff a shitload in this spot, but w/e), then you should flat call. But you shouldn't raise the flop because you are assuming his range is strong. Thats why I'm saying that raising flop is inconsistent with flatting pre.

[bspahn]

i guess this is one of those things that you really cant generalize, and you just gotta get it in versus all the regs at the site a few times BTN vs blinds and just see what they're doing it with to give you more information...

by the way can someone tell me in HEM how I can see how often i 4bet? (ie %)

ALSO, when guys are relentlessly 3betting me IN and OUT of position, ie guys that are 9% or higher whats my best defence for this, without adding a ton of variance to my game. Obviously 4betting lighter is good, but I dislike getting stacks in with hands like AJ/AQ/88-TT type hands... easiest I suppose is just tighten way up or leave the table?

[meeloche]

Oh man....

Pre you can go either way, I'd probably elect to get JJ in here if the gameflow/dynamic was right for it.

Raising the flop would not be good vs this player. Just call flop fold turn.

[Renton]

ip its pretyt cheap and easy to 4bet bluff with complete garbage hands like k7o. oop is harder.

4betting pre isn't neutral ev, its massively +ev.

if you stove our equity pre and post it really didn't change much

I agree it inconsistent to flat and raise the flop, but if we think 4bing pre is EV+ why wouldn't raising flop be EV+

[Renton]

bc he gives up on this flop a ton

bc he gives up on this flop a ton

I did the calculations, we need 38% equity to raise/get it in here

I don't think you can make any range that gives us less than 38% because he will lead his draws every time

[Muzzard]

Is there anyway to ignore/block posters?

[Renton]

im pretty sure if you stove vs a range that has you drawing to 2 outs about 75% of the time and flipping the other 25 it will be considerably less than 38%. Adding fold equity would make it marginally profitable, as I'm sure raising flop is marginally profitable. Calling is better.

[jyms]

Letting this guy see a flop BvB is probably bad. Once he does I'm not happy playing for stacks after that. 7%3bet has nothing to do with his range after the flop. I certainly prefer shoving/folding to calling, what flop are we hoping to see that we stack off on?

[griffey24]

by the way can someone tell me in HEM how I can see how often i 4bet? (ie %)

Go into the reports section, and then click that "+" sign on the left to add stats. And then add the stat "versus 3bet raise %" or something like that I'm pretty sure its called.

im pretty sure if you stove vs a range that has you drawing to 2 outs about 75% of the time and flipping the other 25 it will be considerably less than 38%. Adding fold equity would make it marginally profitable, as I'm sure raising flop is marginally profitable. Calling is better.

so you're saying he's not getting it in with his flush draws? I think he bets any strong draw on the flop and gets it in
I think we're a flip some of the time and drawing to 2 outs another portion of the time
but that's the same situation as it was preflop
unless you think he goes "well, I'd felt TT preflop, but now I'll fold it on the flop"