Aq 3b pot CB against shortie?

[mg0698]

Villian was 44/15/1 over 45 hands my plan was to get it in PF, but as played do u CB??? Fold to CB 13%


CO: $59.90
BTN: $78.10
SB: $91.10
Hero (BB): $127.95
UTG: $110.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A Q
1 fold, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $16, CO calls $13, 1 fold]

Flop: ($35.00) J T 4 (2 players)
Hero ???

[Da GOAT]

c/f

c/f

or you could shove
if he folds 99- it's profitable

[bspahn]

hmm

that's fine if you want to get it in preflop, but your 3bet imo is too big. if you think he'll spazz and shove or 4bet pre just make it small like 11-12$, you also want him to call with a ton of trash you dominate so making it less has a lot of advantages!

you dont want to 3bet AQ pre and flip with small pairs etc for a $120 pot right, you want value, and you'll get that by making him spazz with stuff you dominate or for him to call with stuff you dominate and then getting his stack when you HIT flops.

AQ hits like 30% so you'll have to just be patient. since he never folds to cbets you gotta give up here!

44/15 seems like an uber fish, you dont have to get fancy with these types, just be patient and wait for hands, the $ will come to you

[Renton]

pretty horrible spot but i think theres enough behind that you can cf

[bspahn]

from my experience i'd say that when i have hands like AQ or AK on boards like TJx etc and I'm dealing with opps who don't fold a lot i end up being in an all in pot with like 10-25% equity repeatedly...

the other thing is i see a LOT of fish double up and instantly leave... so if you're going to be in an all in pot with one I'd generally want to be crushing them, and that takes patience... flipping with them and a lot of marginal spots I think just give them too much of a chance to double up and leave..

[wufwugy]

sticking it in 100% no givsies backsies

villain is seeing this flop with his whole range, hero has almost 40% equity if villain only calls when ahead or with a legit draw, but since villain is going to fold a lot and sometimes call with garbage we're flipping

[Da GOAT]

i really dont mind just calling pre and shipping vs co. i dont wanna get in this spot usually and you cant just shove preflop.

if shorty was shorter i like 3bet/shove flop. otherwise calling is prudent

[bspahn]

this is exactly what i mean, whenever i have two overs and a gutshot and assume i have 10 outs and bla bla 40% equity it almost always turns out that it is incorrect and I have way less equity. you're basically assuming that he never has A4/AT/AJ/QJ/QT/Q4/TJ/444 etc or other hands that we have less outs against.

i suppose i like shoving flop better than betting out and getting raised or called... i still raise smaller pre and try and hit a flop

[wufwugy]

doing it all wrong

villain is a donkey who calls lots of 3bets, AQ is way ahead of his range, so we should 3bet BIG and shove every flop since his entire range sees the flop

sometimes he folds, sometimes he calls with a made hand, sometimes he calls with a draw, all in all this is a very big money maker

[bspahn]

sorry but i think your reasoning is terrible.
3bet huge and shove any flop makes no sense to me. when fish is going to stack off with any piece of the board you're just giving him a free chance to double up and leave with your money rather than just trying to hit a half decent hand and getting his money

[Renton]

wufwugy is correct, i just think its closer in this case than in most, and if there were a couple less dollars behind I would be comfortable shoving flop too. It could be a shove in this case, I didn't run any calculations, just my instinct said fold.

[Renton]

bspahn, your line of logic sounds a bit amateur-ish in that post. It's not very good to "find a better spot" at the cost of several bb of potential ev that lies in shoving the flop with like 35-40% equity + the overlay of 30 dollars in the pot + fold equity. Who cares if you double him up?

sorry but i think your reasoning is terrible.
3bet huge and shove any flop makes no sense to me. when fish is going to stack off with any piece of the board you're just giving him a free chance to double up and leave with your money rather than just trying to hit a half decent hand and getting his money

he's only hitting the flop 30% of the time
if he never calls our shove with a pp (well even if he does, he has 60% equity, big whoop) and only has two unpaired cards on the flop we can 3b/shove any flop with AQ
this particular flop he might hit more because he's not folding a flush draw and J/T are cards he may have more often

but even if we get called 50% of the time and have on average like 35% equity when called (we have 40% most of the time, 28% some of the time and at least 16%)
we pick up $35 when he folds
we win $122.8 thirty five percent of the time so that's $43

our shove costs us $44
we are BREAK EVEN c/calling a shove if he never bluffs
obviously getting him to fold his 6 outers is better than him checking it down and hitting it on the river, so we should shove unless we believe he'll shove worse when checked to, like A5 or something we should shove

[bspahn]

okay i see the argument for THIS particular flop, also because of pot size and fish's remaining stack.

i'm not hearing any arguments for 3betting less pre, i've posted many hands here where i was advised to 3bet less because i'm trying to keep a fish in with more hands so I'm unsure why nobody seems to agree with me that 3betting less pre is better in this spot.

i also wrote my last post in response towufwugy who said we should 3bet huge here and shove ANY flop. i think THAT isn't too smart. if the flop either hits us or comes JTx like here where we generally have more outs I can see our equity being much higher.

i guess nobody agrees with my argument about doubling fish up and having them leave. maybe for you americans on stars and ftp dont have these sorts of fish but the ones I encounter almost always leave after a quick double up. i want them to stay and i want to stack them, that's why i was saying a bit of patience is fine.

[Marshall28]

okay i see the argument for THIS particular flop, also because of pot size and fish's remaining stack.

i'm not hearing any arguments for 3betting less pre, i've posted many hands here where i was advised to 3bet less because i'm trying to keep a fish in with more hands so I'm unsure why nobody seems to agree with me that 3betting less pre is better in this spot.

i also wrote my last post in response towufwugy who said we should 3bet huge here and shove ANY flop. i think THAT isn't too smart. if the flop either hits us or comes JTx like here where we generally have more outs I can see our equity being much higher.

It doesn't make a huge difference either way. If you did pair one of your hole cards against a fish w/ this stack size you should probably be checking to him though.

I prefer in general to just call preflop then c/r the flop when I make a pair. If they are gonna put a ton of money in the pot, might as well let them put it in after we've made our hand, right?

i guess nobody agrees with my argument about doubling fish up and having them leave. maybe for you americans on stars and ftp dont have these sorts of fish but the ones I encounter almost always leave after a quick double up. i want them to stay and i want to stack them, that's why i was saying a bit of patience is fine.

I'd prefer not to give up any EV, but it comes down to stylistic preferences more than one scenario being right and the other being wrong.

[dev]

If we have reliable information that the player is likely to hit and run then we can make a good argument for maybe not taking a marginal edge, but this isn't just a marginal edge.

The reason for 3betting bigger here is to make the flop shove a bit neater. Smaller makes for awkward stack sizes.

well do you really mind paying him like 10 dollars (which is our EV in the hand) to stick around? I think if we give up EV for future ev considerations it should be cents, not 1/6 of the guy's stack