Fold a set on the turn?

[badgers]

I haven't seen villain before today but he is on a lot of my tables playing at 16/10/2. He has a fold to 3bet of 86% over that small 500 hand sample, and if he was paying attention (doubtful) he would have seen me calling w/ AKs where I could have 3bet him, so QQ/KK are definitely in my range and he may know this.


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($206.45)
UTG+1 ($180.20)
Hero (MP1) ($203.00)
MP2 ($209.00)
MP3 ($200.00)
CO ($253.00)
BTN ($271.20)
SB ($208.05)
BB ($208.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is MP1
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 6 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $22, UTG raises to $58, Hero ??

[KillsAids]

meh, i suck in these spots. Personally I'm not folding, but it's also because I'm not good enough to fold a set (check the hand I just posted). Usually I'll convince myself villain has KQ although he's UTG and I'm raising lol.

well i guess his range is ATs, T9s, KK-QQ,55, KQ,AKhh,AJhh at most, unless he's shown you that he gets crazy postflop.

He might not do this for value with 55 and KQ, in which case you're boned. But you have to discount ATs/T9s because he may not raise them UTG at a full table, which helps.

If you think about it, would he really play a set this way? How does he know you'll bet the turn, and why raise small like that? I actually think his most likely holding by far is AhKh, or AhJh.

Still dunno if I'd have the balls to go with my read and ship, but I'd probably call and call a river bet on a non-T/heart

[rpm]

i'm leaning toward pair/flush draw hands as well. why would he risk checking the turn OOP with a hand like KK, QQ when your calling range includes so many worse hands, and given the multitude of draws now possible, shouldnt he be looking to get as much in as possible while he's likely ahead? AT could possibly be c/r'ing turn but again, is unlikely to be raised UTG pf.

small size of turn raise seems to suggest villain is either planning to raise/fold to shove (hands like ak, aq, kq) or has AT,9T and is extracting value/preparing for stacks to enter on river, however i think these are unlikely . given that you smoothed pf and flop, your hand is well hidden, i'd probably ship it. you might even get called by AK, AQ, AA, KQ.

[Deanglow]

meh he has 2pr or AhKh enough just get it in.

[wakeup]

yeah ship, he does this with worse