wtf river bet 100nl

[dev]

V is 22/19/2/80, no relevant history

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($49.95)
Button ($100)
Hero (SB) ($114.80)
BB ($212.80)
UTG ($249.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, K
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, BB bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($11) 2, A, K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($25) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $16, Hero calls $16

River: ($57) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $45

My plan was to c/c but I kinda lost my nerve a bit after looking at his bet size.

[griffey24]

Pretty sure bvb I'm calling this always.

[gabe]

raise pre

[dev]

What can he be betting this river with that I beat? AQ maybe. There aren't many chopping Ks in his range because there's only one left in the deck and AK and KQ both beat me. I doubt he's raising pre with k9o here.

@ Gabe, mp limper was pretty loose/passive pre and I expected a call, I figured I was better off playing a smaller pot OOP. I guess a raise takes a lot of the guesswork out of playing against the tagg BB and possibly isolates the limper.

[griffey24]

If I'm villain in this hand, I'd probably put you primarily on Ax here (after pre, and after c/c on turn) so I might bet any Ax on river to try and get you off a chop.

[gabe]

What can he be betting this river with that I beat? AQ maybe. There aren't many chopping Ks in his range because there's only one left in the deck and AK and KQ both beat me. I doubt he's raising pre with k9o here.

@ Gabe, mp limper was pretty loose/passive pre and I expected a call, I figured I was better off playing a smaller pot OOP. I guess a raise takes a lot of the guesswork out of playing against the tagg BB and possibly isolates the limper.

man you MUST raise this pre especially if hes just some loose/passive fish. you want to build the pot when you have good hands and a postflop edge. also it makes the BB less likely to play, which means you are more often just HU with the fish, which is the best possible situation

raise pre because you want fish to make big post-flop mistakes, and because you want to show strength to be able to rep those Ax/Kx boards as well as low boards if you want (repping an overpair)
also taking it down pre is not a bad result compared to letting BB in and having him hit two purr or something

also, because after you complete you basically can't have AK, TT+
so when BB raises and you call, he should know that his range hit the flop hard and your range hit the flop kind of meh

why would you think of folding despite the board coming off decent
you're basically putting him on a straight or better
he obviously vbets a split and probably bluffs a decent amount considering he has AA, AK, KK, QQ, KQ in his range (although he can't have KK because you hold one) and you pretty much don't

[Dragon Slayer]

Well if we poker stove this range AA, QQ, ATs+, KQs, KQo, AJo we are 10% on the river. Comments on this range though if you guys think it should be different.
As played though you Limp/call pre, then C/C line looks pretty weak. He could be thinking he value towning you with an Ace. His Value range might be a lot wider given your line.

[mixchange]

Raise pre.

As played you have to call, as your SB completing range is weak (you're going to get bluffed a lot here)

[bode]

@ Gabe, mp limper was pretty loose/passive pre and I expected a call, I...

stopped reading here. KJs is crushing his limp/calling range.

As played you have to call because your hand is so incredibly under repped.

[Renton]

yeah suited broadways are a very profitable raise here

as played it seems like a fold, but i would lead the turn

[Genitruc]

fold

[dev]

Preflop was kind of a brain fart. I figured I could get his stack in a fair % if I hit a big hand without raising before the flop. I guess it comes down to how often I expect to take it down after the flop when I miss. I don't remember specific reads on the hand anymore, but with more 100nl fish, it's probable that I can delayed cbet it if I'm HU w/ the fish to take it down, so yeah it's a raise.

I folded the river but it felt really nitty.