5NL FR : set bet sizing

[Keith]

UTG was playing 29/19 and MP2 was a 67/2 station

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($6.59)
UTG+1 ($5.42)
MP1 ($4.98)
MP2 ($5.23)
MP3 ($5.42)
CO ($4.29)
Button ($5)
SB ($2.48)
Hero (BB) ($10.73)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 6
UTG bets $0.20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) A, 6, 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.20, MP2 calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.95, UTG calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.47) 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20, MP2 calls $1.20

River: ($7.07) 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.55, UTG calls $2.55, MP2 calls $2.55

Total pot: $14.72 | Rake: $0.98

Posted this in my op , but think my bets were too small and gave any draws a price to continue. Called myself a fool when the river card came , butshould I have commited them all in anyway. Checking would have invited a shove and would have had to fold, smaller bet gets similar , putting them all in ... does this fold out the Ax and two pair hands that would call the bet i did make? As it was it put a fairly high % of their stack in the pot.

[Vinland]

Flop bet is fine, you made it almost pot.
Turn is too small if one is chasing a draw. I bet $2.50. I would expect a player with a decent A to call and a station will still chase his draw most likely. You are only worried about UTG having AA or KcQc (his flat river call rules this out). So its the station you need to mostly charge for draws.
River I bet 1/2 pot. You only are only behing the UTG if he has AA and the station still may have a variety of shitty hands that he called down with. I dont give him a flush yet when they are this bad.

[surviva316]

flop bet sizing is completely fine.

turn bet sizing is really really really bad. think about ranges and consider your opponents. you're getting Ax's stack and draws are still prolly calling like 3/4 PSB's. betting 1.20 is like "i know you have a draw here a lot, so i'll be a charity donor and give you perfect odds to draw out on me"

river bet sizing is bad too. it's too small to be a stop bet because you've basically commited yourself to a shove over (especially from the station who is the person you're moreso worried about having a flush). if you're betting for value, you're much better off just shoving, 'cause they're gonna call a 2/3 PSB with Ax. your bet sizing essentially manipulates their range, so that Ax gets off for cheap, and flushes still get your stack

The most basic assumptions are UTG has AT+ and MP2 has clubs. While we want to get value out of Ax hands, we also have a loose-passive fish who plays anything suited. Whether it's the right play or not, I'm potting the turn and hoping MP2 folds and UTG calls with his Ace, then fist-a-pump shove the river. The way I run though UTG probably has a set of Aces.

[Carroters]

Turn bet is way too smal, they're not making a mistake at all to call with a flush draw. I would close to pot this turn since they aren't folding top pair or better for either your gay bet size or a pot sized bet. River is a bit sketchy since there are 2 opponents both of which FDs are a reasonable part of their range (although less so with the station who will be calling down with a lot of other bs aswell.)

A blocking bet works well on this river, since you'll never get bluff shoved on here. Make it bigger though. This is still a value bet so get more value out of top pair, 2 pair, other made hands. Just because your hand is no longer the effective nuts doesn't mean you shouldn't still be extracting value vs their whole ranges. The station will be paying off with a wide range here so bet bigger since he doesn't have to have a flush all that often compared to the other shit he'll continue with. Around half pot here is probably good.

One more thing to consider - The Tc is actually not the worst card here because it does make flushes less likely. Reason being, SCs and gappers that people like to play commonly include tens so it nullfies a good amount of FD combos from their ranges. Villains (even the station) are less likely to have Jc3c than they are QcTc KcTc JcTc Tc9c etc.

Finally, just to stress the importance of this: Your turn bet size is seriously pretty bad! You're actually allowing these donks to play well against you. You're essentially handing them a line where they can't go wrong when they have draws. Donks and stations make mistakes all the time, so please allow them to.

[Carroters]

Just noticed how short we are by the river, we obv aren't folding to a shove if we bet small so just shove yourself. A decent size turn bet makes this hand so easy to play because it essentially give us no option on the river but to get the rest in and we get max value from draws obv.

[surviva316]

spr is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too low to get away with a stopping bet. you'd basically have to bet like less than a dollar for you to not be committed to the pot (and even then it's debatable), and a flush draw is shoving over like 80 cent bet so so so so often, so you're not effectively blocking anything.

if you wanna save yourself from getting value-towned on the river, you're much better off checking and leaving the value betting up to him 'cause he's gonna bet something retarded like 80 cents a lot with a flush.

i don't think this is necessarily the best option, but it's clearly much better than making a blocking bet

[Carroters]

Yah assumed stack sizes were all like $10 for some reason.

[Keith]

Couldn't see UTG opening suited connectors so basically had him pegged as an Ax or pocket pair type hand , AA surely would bet more into the flop from UTG and if MP2 had it , I think he'd have raised the flop. MP2 could have been on a flush draw, but I thought he'd possibly have called the check raise having actually hit the flop maybe the 4 or the 6 or would definately been playing all the Ax type hands in his range.
Obviously , if they were on pair , two pairs they are going to be waruy of the flush. One thing I have noticed and I don't know if its just my imagination or a true fact , but at 2 and 5NL people will be happy to call if its 90-95% of their stack at risk , but if its their whole stack at risk they'll fold.

[Keith]

Couldn't see UTG opening suited connectors so basically had him pegged as an Ax or pocket pair type hand , AA surely would bet more into the flop from UTG and if MP2 had it , I think he'd have raised the flop. MP2 could have been on a flush draw, but I thought he'd possibly have called the check raise having actually hit the flop maybe the 4 or the 6 or would definately been playing all the Ax type hands in his range.
Obviously , if they were on pair or two pairs they are going to be wary of the flush. One thing I have noticed and I don't know if its just my imagination or a true fact , but at 2 and 5NL people will be happy to call if its 90-95% of their stack at risk , but if its their whole stack at risk they'll fold.

[Sasquach991]

I think this is right, assuming one villian:

You bet 1/4 pot it gives villian 17% equity (5:1)
You bet 1/2 pot it gives villian 25% equity (3:1)
You bet 2/3 pot it gives villian 28.6% equity (2.5:1)
You bet 3/4 pot it gives villian 30% equity (2.3:1)
You bet pot it gives villian 33% equity (2:1)

2 villians and first one calls,

You bet 1/4 pot it gives 2nd villian 14% eq (6:1)
You bet 1/2 pot it gives 2nd villian 20% eq (4:1)
You bet 3/4 pot it gives 2nd villian 23% eq (3.3:1)
You bet pot it gives 2nd villian 25% eq (3:1)

Edit: I cornfused equity and odds. Changed em to eq (odds)
Thanks Stacks

[Stacks]

I do believe your off there sasquash.. For instance, if the pot is $10, and I bet $10 [pot], then the pot is $20, and you must call $10, therefore you are getting pot odds of 20:10, or 2:1. Meaning you need 1/3 or 33% equity to have a proper call.

Same goes for if I bet 1/2 pot (or $5 here), you will be getting 3:1 ($15 pot, $5 to call, so 15:5 = 3:1), and need 25% equity to have a BE call.

Regarding the hand, obv the turn bet sizing is lolbad. As carroters said, they are correct to call with their draws. This is a situationw here you just need to get as much money in the pot as you can while you know you have the best hand. MP2 obviously isn't folding any Ax, or draw, and UTG's range is probably pretty strong given he 3bet into 2 villains, one of which is a huge fish, and called a flop c/r OOP.

So yeah, make it a tad larger on the flop (like $1.10) I think.. They are calling the same range they would call a $0.90 raise with. And bet much larger on the turn. I don't care to calculate the turn pot and stack sizes, but basically bet as much as you can that will get a call (obv), and my assumption is that the bet can be pretty large, since neither really wants to fold here.

Also, Nutty, why in the world would you want MP2 to fold when you bet pot on the turn? MP2 is an uber fish, flush draws are def in his range, but so are other weaker made hands. We would thoroughly love a call from MP2, and both villains for that matter (obv).

[Keith]

We would thoroughly love a call from MP2, and both villains for that matter (obv).

hence the turn bet size, get them both to call and nice big pot , then shove the river and they goo ....wow massive pot easy call ........except the river card came and I go "F*ck".

The irony is I actually won the hand, but having got into the shitty spot wanted some comments on the route i took to get out of it.

[Stacks]

Yeah you want them to call, but you want them to do so incorectly. To look at the extreme, if you minbet the turn, they call 100%, but it's absolutely correct for them to call with any draw, and worse made hands would call a much larger bet.

So what your job is on the turn is to find the betsizing that they will call, yet still be doing so incorrectly. Given UTG's range, and MP2's inability to fold, a larger turn bet size is the way to go. Also, UTG might have af lush draw given his flop betsizing. Just bet larger with your value hands when villains don't want to fold. That's the case here.