Please fold :( -- AKs semi bluff triple barrel misses

[AFchung]

Villain is 19/9. I've played a lot with him and hes pretty fit or fold on the flop. He raises the turn with his monsters

What do you think of the river bet? I'm trying to get him to fold a PP which still calls the super blank turn. I know I'm repping a narrow nut range but I'm hoping that he might find a fold for 99- on that river card. I feel like when i check this river, hes going to check behind and show me 66

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($69.15)
MP3 ($56.90)
CO ($62.35)
Button ($66.20)
Hero (SB) ($50)
BB ($49.10)
UTG ($50.20)
UTG+1 ($104.85)
MP1 ($32.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
7 folds, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3) 5, Q, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($6) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

River: ($15) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $13

Total pot: $41 | Rake: $2.05

[bikes]

bet bigger on all streets. something like

2 > 5.5 > 15

[daven]

bet flop bigger for sure
i don't think i barrel this turn

[jessyj]

I like it.

I disagree with betting the flop bigger
we want to bet a certain amount that would get him to call with extra hands and lose money with said hands because we're barreling every turn with our draw

[AFchung]

I disagree with betting the flop bigger
we want to bet a certain amount that would get him to call with extra hands and lose money with said hands because we're barreling every turn with our draw

this was my thinking as well. i was betting the turn for sure regardless of what came (maybe not a Q?) so i didnt really care if hes calling a wide range on the flop. but the main issue here is the river play

i asked other people and a lot of them like a check-fold but i feel like its too weak and suboptimal with given reads. against this weak tight player i really think we can barrel him off most of his range except the nut hands Qx/boats(which he raises on the turn based on my very reliable read). the only hand that I can see him giving a crying call with is JJ

[bigspenda73]

don't think a standard river bet size is the way to go here

shove-a-dub-a-doooooooo

[BooG690]

I disagree with betting the flop bigger
we want to bet a certain amount that would get him to call with extra hands and lose money with said hands because we're barreling every turn with our draw

If we also plan to barrel the turn regardless of the card, don't we want to bet the flop bigger?

There's more money in the pot if we hit our draw.
There's more money in the pot if we win the pot with villain folding on turn.