25NL - Flopped Flush Against River C/R

[BooG690]

This BC needs to get out of the muck. To the regs, villain is a 24/7/1.5 through 68 hands: do you feel he has AJ enough here for me to call? Do we EVER check through this river? I'm probably being results-oriented, but whatever.

Also, regs, please don't answer the questions. Let's give others the chance to research, execute, and check the math needed for this river shove.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



saw flop

UTG ($27.35)
MP1 ($25.35)
MP2 ($18.70)
CO ($23.30)
Hero (Button) ($38.85)
SB ($25.75)
BB ($25.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 8
4 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 2, J, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.10) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB calls $2.75

River: ($9.60) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BB raises $20.75 (All-In), Hero calls $13.25

Total pot: $51.10

Questions
1) How much equity do we need to make this river call?
2) Give villain an initial range of {33-22,A3s,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Qh9h,Th9h,A3o}. How many combinations of AJ must we add to this range for the call to be +EV (Hint: PokerStove is your friend)?
3) Just for kicks: How many combinations of AJ can villain have HERE?

[clvacva]

pot is 9.60+7.50+13.25=30.35
then betsize/(bet+pot) = 13.25/(13.25+30.35)= 30.4% equity needed

If we let him have all the 9 AJ combos remaining and use the range you assigned the equity is 47%

So we need 3 combos of AJo in order for our equity to be at 30%

[Micro2Macro]

sorry to hijack but you're like never good here.

[BooG690]

sorry to hijack but you're like never good here.

I totally agree.

pot is 9.60+7.50+13.25=30.35
then betsize/(bet+pot) = 13.25/(13.25+30.35)= 30.4% equity needed

If we let him have all the 9 AJ combos remaining and use the range you assigned the equity is 47%

So we need 3 combos of AJo in order for our equity to be at 30%

1) Where is this $13.25 coming from?
2) Adding three combinations of AJ does not give us an equity of 30%. May I ask how you got this number? I believe you're making a mistake somewhere.

[bigspenda73]

sorry to hijack but you're like never good here.

I totally agree.

surely you jest, it's pretty close, turn bet should have been slightly bigger.

[clvacva]

The 13 is from the bet you have to call or is that wrong. You bet 7 he raised shoves which is 20 total so you have to call 13.

I went to pokerstove and in the hand selection I deselected all the AJ hands and then selected 3 of them.

[BooG690]

The 13 is from the bet you have to call or is that wrong. You bet 7 he raised shoves which is 20 total so you have to call 13.

I went to pokerstove and in the hand selection I deselected all the AJ hands and then selected 3 of them.

I bet $7.50, he shoves for $20.75, and the current pot (without our bets) is $9.60. By using $13.25, you are leaving $7.50 of the pot unaccounted for, DUCY?

[Stacks]

13.25/51.10

[BooG690]

Damnit Stacks.

[clvacva]

but the 51 is when we called. I thought we make the equity calculation before we call.

I am confused.

[bigspenda73]

ratio vs fractions yo

[BooG690]

but the 51 is when we called. I thought we make the equity calculation before we call.

I am confused.

OK, think about it this way...

I will be using the numbers 13, 39, and 52 for simplicity of math (nice and close to our numbers). So before the call, our decision is to call $13 to win $39. We only have to be right 25% of the time for this to be breakeven (we lose $13 three times and win $39 once; we're right 1 of 4 times). Therefore, we only need to win 25% of the time (our equity), DUCY?

Now, if we were to divide 13/39, we get 33%. However, by the reasoning above, we know that's wrong. Dividing 13/52 gives us the 25%; the denominator (52) is the final pot.

[daven]

gotta be good about 25% of the time. Explanation above by someone else.
Bet turn bigger.

sorry to hijack but you're like never good here.

I totally agree.

surely you jest, it's pretty close, turn bet should have been slightly bigger.

it's not close at all
24/7 will only raise a boat or flush on the river and c/r bluff about never

[bigspenda73]

pretty hard for him to have a boat here and you act like he wouldn't have raised a flush on the flop/turn.

[tugger]

I don't like the river bet at all, you're asking for trouble. He's called two bets already, he doesn't have nothing, does he? He either flopped a flush or a set. He checked it over to you on the river, is the pot not big enough for a mid flush on a paired board?

Your flush is bad, you should check the river and cry when the big pot goes his way.

[tugger]

I would add A3 to his range.

[BooG690]

I would add A3 to his range.

Holy crap. I have no idea why I didn't have that in his range in the first place. Thanks for the fix.

Please apply question to fixed range.

[tugger]

I would add A3 to his range.

Holy crap. I have no idea why I didn't have that in his range in the first place. Thanks for the fix.

Please apply question to fixed range.

You had 33 in his range. Holy crap. Holy holy crap.

I've got him on flush or boat. AJ is not raising this river.

[tugger]

He either flopped a flush or a set.

This is why I felt the need to add A3 to MY range.

pretty hard for him to have a boat here and you act like he wouldn't have raised a flush on the flop/turn.

it's super standard for fish to slowplay the nut flush to the river, but I agree, he's more likely to have a boat or quads given his line (since he has da 3 hi flush draw he calls flop)

Would you agree we see a river c/r almost never here? I see fish c/c their high flushes here, and I can't imagine him c/shoving a bluff because that is the last thing a fish thinks when they check the river

I would argue that given how rarely we see this happen that we can expect him to have a really strong hand about every time when it does happen

[tugger]

(since he has da 3 hi flush draw he calls flop)

Just how fishy do we think he is? Is this the norm? To assume everyone is an uber-fish?

If he has quads, I have no idea how this dude still has a bankroll.

(since he has da 3 hi flush draw he calls flop)

Just how fishy do we think he is? Is this the norm? To assume everyone is an uber-fish?

If he has quads, I have no idea how this dude still has a bankroll.

he's a 24/7 fish
he doesn't have a bankroll, he has a weekly paycheck

[clvacva]

Thanks BooG690 for the explanation

and he had A3 of diamonds or KQ of hearts?... Results please

[tugger]

I'll eat my socks if he had 33

[DoanDiggy]

I would like to add my 2c that Villain doesn't have to be beating us to shove here. I have recently observed fish playing exactly like this on a monochrome flop with nothing better than TPTK (without flush draw). I think their thought process is that you would slowplay a flopped flush, so you must be drawing to the flush. But they are unlucky so they don't want to put more money in until they are sure (on the river) that you don't hit it.

So they call down with like AcQs, the flush doesn't get there, and now they're going to let you bluff the river with your QhJ and then shove on you because the other fish they play with can never fold pairs and ZOMG now they have 2 pair with a Q kicker. The same is true on this board of AJ or A2... they're afraid you're drawing to the flush and might get there, so they put in as little as possible until they are sure the flush isn't there.

They could even have called you down with like KhQ, and now they got to the river and are mad that they missed just like they always do, but hey, maybe you were drawing too and missed, and KQ might be good. But then you bet. But no one ever bets 3 streets unless they're bluffing!!! But maybe you're bluffing with the best hand, the pot's big, they don't have much left anyways, so they might as well go all-in and hope you fold.

Hell, they could even have decided to slowplay A2 and now they're pissed that their hand got hosed on the river, so they just check/shoved it out of frustration.

How is villain playing this hand when they hold 54s, 43s, or 53s? We're beating all of those hands, too.

I mean, how often are we bet/folding this river? I'd probably go for some thin value on the river with AQ+, and I almost certainly have to cry and fold when they check/shove. How are we going to play 54s here? A flush is pretty close to the top of our range... bet/folding with these odds to call just seems criminal.

Fish can be unpredictably retarded and subject to spazzing out for whatever reason (maybe their favorite NFL team just turned the ball over AGAIN!). I don't think his range necessarily crushes us; I think we are good often enough to call here.

[bigspenda73]

AQ and 78hh are very similar hands here, unless you think he's waiting til the river to c/r a baby-flush, which I've stated I don't feel is in his range. Otherwise they pretty much beat/lose (AQ vs 78hh) to the same hands that take this line.