Need a plan nl 100

[Andypandy]

Villain is 15/14/3,2/2,8 over 320 hands, so pretty nitty player. Hasnt made any noteworthy moves so far.

Pf 3 bet is maybe a tad too small. Flop is maybe a bet/fold or bet/call but i felt this flop hit his pf-calling range pretty hard? Plan on turn and rivers?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($221.31)
MP ($46.53)
Button ($403.61)
Hero (SB) ($255.69)
BB ($112.21)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
2 folds, Button bets $3, Hero raises $10, 1 fold, Button calls $7.50

Flop: ($22) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($22) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $15, Hero calls $15

River: ($52) (2 players)
HERO?

Total pot: $52

[Alexos]

def bet flop

[nutsinho]

Bet the flop ldo. were you planning to c/c or c/r?

[Andypandy]

Bet the flop ldo. were you planning to c/c or c/r?

I planned to c/c in some kind of pot-controling way... but i see now i messed this one up, i think b/f. b/f, b/f is best, atleast since he seemed like a nit that won't pull big moves...

[griffey24]

You think a low board hit a 15/14's 3bet calling range somehow?

It might be hard to get 3 streets from a nit on this board the way it ran out, but I'd bet 15, 32, 75ish.

[Micro2Macro]

Bet the flop ldo. were you planning to c/c or c/r?

I planned to c/c in some kind of pot-controling way... but i see now i messed this one up, i think b/f. b/f, b/f is best, atleast since he seemed like a nit that won't pull big moves...

When this hand was played you should have asked yourself where the value is in checking and then you'd realize that not betting is bad.

[oskar]

It would be more helpful if you didn't bother with the vpip/pfr and instead looked at the ATS and fold/4bet/call 3bet stats, as well as fold to c-bet.

You might not get 3 streets, but then b/c/b or b/b/c or something.
b/f seems pretty bad unless he has a very very low raise c-bet.

You're looking at all the wrong stats, yo.

[jyms]

failing all this you also mentioned the 3 bet pre which sets up a horrendous SPR situation for yourself. Either 3bet bigger or just call. Being over 200BB deep with AA is never a good place to be playing three streets of betting deep with a min 3 bet pre OOP.

[mixchange]

1st of all you must bet flop, and ITS BVB BABY everyone puts you on nothing an calls wider. We love this spot with AA!

2nd he is the type that is flatting sooooooooooo many pairs and not 4betting QQ prolly so you're missing a ton of value and potentially letting him draw out by checking flop

I also 3bet to $11 oop (but w/e)

I'd make my 3b huge because we're 250BB deep
not sure what the standard is

bet the flop because if he has 55, 66, 76, 75 he's probably just going to check it back and look to get to showdown and maybe even higher pairs