200NL: 99 3b pot

[d0zer]

Villain is 25/20/3 reg, 5.5% 3b.

Pre kind of a tossup between calling & 3betting. I had already successfully restole on him a few times this session so I thought he might play back where I could shove over, and I just wanted to keep up the aggressive dynamic.

When he calls the flop & checks the turn I expect him to have some hand with SD value or a heart draw looking for a free look. The river bet sizing doesn't really seem like a bluffy size, but with the heart draw missing to I have to look this up given the price?



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG mordekhai ($426.50)
UTG+1 Fritz1315 ($206.85)
CO kapie123 ($401)
BTN WonTwoMany ($214.65)
SB eVERRYX ($235)
BB Hero ($200)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, WonTwoMany raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $20, WonTwoMany calls $14

Flop: ($41, 2 players)
Hero bets $24, WonTwoMany calls $24

Turn: ($89, 2 players)
Hero checks, WonTwoMany checks

River: ($89, 2 players)
Hero checks, WonTwoMany bets $44, $44 to Hero ($156)?

[griffey24]

What's his fold to 3bet?

Pretty sure I'm calling this ...

[d0zer]

What's his fold to 3bet?

Pretty sure I'm calling this ...

75%. Only a 200 hand sample on these stats tho.

[meeloche]

It's close but I'm folding here because I don't think he 4 bets his strong value range 100% of the time and his sizing doesn't look all that bluffy. I also don't see many hands that he can have in his pf range that he's bluffing with.

[Marshall28]

3betting 99 there w/ the intention of shoving over a 4bet is really bad IMO. 99 is going to end up having the same value against his 4b/get it in range as a hand like 44/55/66 because 4b/getting it in w/ a small pair so atrocious for what should be really obvious reasons.

If you expect villain to call your 3bet a lot, then 3betting the 99 is fine, but even then, most of the time I would just flat preflop.

As played, river is very close since in order to fold you have to essentially put him on a float w/ a hand containing a J on the flop. What J's flat pre and on this flop? AJ maybe? QJ/KJ? Doubt it. J8/J9? Probably not in his preflop range. It's close, but I probably call.

[meeloche]

Actually looking at this again I call and take a note. His value range is really too thin to give him credit here. When its this close calling is better than folding.

[griffey24]

Actually looking at this again I call and take a note. His value range is really too thin to give him credit here. When its this close calling is better than folding.

Yaah..I'm not sure what 'strong range' you thought he'd have here at first, after checking through the turn.

The only hand that makes sense is like J's full, or maybe Jx hearts.

[mcatdog]

3betting 99 there w/ the intention of shoving over a 4bet is really bad IMO. 99 is going to end up having the same value against his 4b/get it in range as a hand like 44/55/66 because 4b/getting it in w/ a small pair so atrocious for what should be really obvious reasons.

This is too broad of a statement. Some people adjust to light 3bettors by 4bet bluffing more, other people do it by 4bet-calling hands like 77 or 88. It's enough of a possibility that 99 is a lot different from 44.

At first I was thinking fold but I changed my mind, I call.

[Marshall28]

The more I think about it the more I like c/r to induce a 3b on the flop. If we are that sure that we're ahead of him preflop, we only have to worry about Tx which is obv very rare and 77 which is obv also rare.

It also keeps us out of situations on the turn and river where any J+ is an overcard and we get put in tough spots constantly. If the flop checks through it becomes much less an issue when the turn brings an overcard since most hands like QJ/KQ/KJ we expect all to bet the flop.

[meeloche]

As for 3 betting 99 to jam over a 4 bet. It is certainly profitable vs the right opponent and something I do fairly regularly as long as certain 4 bet requirements are there.

[griffey24]

As for 3 betting 99 to jam over a 4 bet. It is certainly profitable vs the right opponent and something I do fairly regularly as long as certain 4 bet requirements are there.

Yaah I agree, especially if you've been 3betting him a lot and you've seen that he has the ability to 4bet bluff frequently its a good spot to 3bet a hand like 99 again on the button vs his CO raise and ship over a likely 4bet bluff.

[griffey24]

The more I think about it the more I like c/r to induce a 3b on the flop. If we are that sure that we're ahead of him preflop, we only have to worry about Tx which is obv very rare and 77 which is obv also rare.

I don't know about this. I suppose I agree to some extent if he's capable of a full on 3bet bluff, but it's not like we're fist pumping to get it in here vs any flush draw or anything.

Also just cause we 3bet him pre, doesn't mean that we're for sure ahead of him preflop. But if the dynamic is correct, there are times where you're sure you're ahead of his calling range, and you can also comfortably fold to a 4bet.

I wouldn't 3bet 99 and fold to a 4bet though if I had already been banging on him, cause that would be a bit silly.