Follow through with bluff on river against Tagg reg? 50NL

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is 17/13/5.0 over 350+ hands.

The flatting from SB makes me think he could have a PP. If he hit a set on the flop I'd expect to get check/raised often on that board. When he flats and donkleads turn, I'm thinking he has maybe some sort of J, maybe 88-TT, or some sorta of flush draw.

When he flats my turn raise is where I am stumped a little. He could have a AJ or a good flush draw, but my line looks uber strong especially from UTG and don't expect him to call a river shove with AJ.

It's very unlikely he has a set here right? Simple due to hand combinations and the line his taking. On the river I dont think he ever has a straight. Safe to shove river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -

Button ($42.60)
SB ($80)
BB ($50.15)
Hero (UTG) ($55.55)
MP ($52)
CO ($77.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
Hero bets $2, 3 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

River: ($46.50) (2 players)
SB checks,

[XTR1000]

Fold turn.

You´re saying your line looks uber strong being utg and stuff and I agree. You shouldn´t forget tho, that the guy just called the flop and b/c turn oop vs your uber strong range. You may fold out AJ once in a while, but given the FD bricked and you still beat some of his XXhh Id just check back river.

[Dragon Slayer]

The C/C flop-Lead turn line usually means a ton of strength. What do you think he is donking the Turn with that he will fold to a raise? I think without a better read folding Turn cant be all that bad. I think Call-re eval River is better than raising.

[Dragon Slayer]

The C/C flop-Lead turn line usually means a ton of strength. Think without a better read folding Turn cant be all that bad. I think Call-re eval River is better than raising. I agree with Checking back he can have some missed FD's

[Parasurama]

c/c flop lead turn is usually weak in my experience...

[Sup3rM4N]

c/c flop lead turn is usually weak in my experience...

Same here.

[Dragon Slayer]

c/c flop lead turn is usually weak in my experience...

Well I must say I use it a ton with air like on paired boards as a bluff But dats because it looks strong son!

[IowaSkinsFan]

Don't look at the turn in a vacuum. How many nut hands can you have here? Whats his most likely mistake going to be against your range?

[jyms]

I find that when tight aggro taggs slowdown they usually have it. That being the case he either has nuts or air here. He's not folding a set toa smaller bet on the river. That leaves us with a large bet to fold hands that Bet/call the turn or C/F. I C/F

[Sup3rM4N]

Don't look at the turn in a vacuum. How many nut hands can you have here? Whats his most likely mistake going to be against your range?

I think I can only rep JJ+, AKh, JJ being the least likely of my range. I never raise those small PP's from UTG so its unlikely for him to ever put me on a set here besides JJ. My stats are more on the nittier side and he doesn't have any real reason to think I would triple barrel bluff. I think his mistake would be C/C a speculative hand like AJ on the river against my range. Also calling with Axh to the turn raise hoping to get there with the flush.

Leaks in my thinking?

[bjsaust]

Meh, sometimes we'll check down the best hand here.

[Sup3rM4N]

I find that when tight aggro taggs slowdown they usually have it. That being the case he either has nuts or air here. He's not folding a set toa smaller bet on the river. That leaves us with a large bet to fold hands that Bet/call the turn or C/F. I C/F

I don't ever imagine him folding a set on the river. I expect to get C/R there a ton on the flop tho with a set, as there is a flush draw out there and the flush can either help me or kill his action. It's hard to put him on a set when he doesn't C/R flop nor does he 3bet turn. Once the turn comes and if he had a set I would expect a tagg to 3bet over at that spot hoping to get stacks in.

[bjsaust]

I tend to think that FD turned gutshot/oesd makes up a fair part of his range with this line. Bad thinking?

[wufwugy]

nobody folds anymore

[Parasurama]

lol @ tight aggro taggs

[jyms]

lol @ tight aggro taggs

Villain is 17/13/5.0 over 350+ hands.

Is that not Tagg? but yea I get what you are saying

[Parasurama]

yeah villain is a tagg but it amuses me that people use tagg so often to just mean bad reg that they've forgotten what it actually stands for.

ISF, villain makes a mistake when he b/c turn and c/c river with Jx when we have our nut hands. Since we don't have many nut hands often the bigger mistake for villain is to fold top pair. So isn't it ok for us to try to make him fold, especially when he takes a line often indicative of weakness?

This is what makes me think the turn play is totally fine with our gutshot. As for river I don't think we have enough nut hands left in our range to make a credible bluff.

[BigLRIP]

If you think he has like 66-99 on the turn (I'm assuming that's what your trying to fold) I think a cool line is to float and take the pot away on the river. I really doubt he's betting those hands twice, or that he's check calling them unimproved on the river.

[IowaSkinsFan]

yeah villain is a tagg but it amuses me that people use tagg so often to just mean bad reg that they've forgotten what it actually stands for.

ISF, villain makes a mistake when he b/c turn and c/c river with Jx when we have our nut hands. Since we don't have many nut hands often the bigger mistake for villain is to fold top pair. So isn't it ok for us to try to make him fold, especially when he takes a line often indicative of weakness?

This is what makes me think the turn play is totally fine with our gutshot. As for river I don't think we have enough nut hands left in our range to make a credible bluff.

Good reasoning. However if our range is actually 66+, AJo+, KQo+, AJ, QQ+, JJ is not really too bad of a nut hand range. Also, the only hands we are really folding if opp leads if probably, idk AK/AQ/KQ, 88-TT maybe. So it's not like opp is making some superb bluff on the turn if he is bluffing. He's making a terrible bluff and a bad blocking bet IF you play your range purely for value. Now if you raise AQ/AK on the turn as well, you make a guy who is block bettings play worse, but a person who is stationing it up's play better. I think its difficult to tell in this case which one he is. Also, not sure what hands he'd play this way on the turn, so I'm wary to bluff here. The only Jx in his range is AJ given the way he plays pre.
So yeah, you could put him squarely on 66-TT, or 88-TT. Or he could just have 55 here every time and you just made a bad mistake.

I'm not sure we are going to want to have any sort of raising range here anyways so it seems like raising the turn is going to have to work by itself since it will lend value to no other hands.

[Parasurama]

I'm not sure we are going to want to have any sort of raising range here anyways so it seems like raising the turn is going to have to work by itself since it will lend value to no other hands.

There was something bothering me about this turn raise and I couldn't figure out what but it's definitely this.

So call turn and re-eval river or just fold now? Will we have good bluffing opportunities on the river? I can't tell because like you said it's difficult to tell if he's blocking/bluffing or planning to station it up on the river.

[Micro2Macro]

I'm not sure we are going to want to have any sort of raising range here anyways so it seems like raising the turn is going to have to work by itself since it will lend value to no other hands.

There was something bothering me about this turn raise and I couldn't figure out what but it's definitely this.

So call turn and re-eval river or just fold now? Will we have good bluffing opportunities on the river? I can't tell because like you said it's difficult to tell if he's blocking/bluffing or planning to station it up on the river.

Makes folding the turn seem ideal imho. We're probably just too likely to make a mistake here. But then again we have that gutter with overcards which makes peeling tempting given his interesting line.