passive fish ITT

[Deanglow]

Villain is 44/0 with 1.3 3bet over 250 hands. He tanked for a good 5 seconds on the flop and instasnap called the turn.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($401.10)
UTG+1 ($586.30)
MP1 ($207.20)
MP2 ($396)
CO ($410)
Button ($1145.10)
SB ($396)
Hero (BB) ($752.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
3 folds, MP2 calls $4, 3 folds, Hero bets $24, MP2 calls $20

Flop: ($50) 6, 2, J (2 players)
Hero bets $36, MP2 calls $36

Turn: ($122) A (2 players)
Hero bets $72, MP2 calls $72

River: ($266) 4 (2 players)
Hero has $264 effective

[daven]

instinct response is bet around $100.
now I need to figure out why.

He has Ad a lot here. River is interesting. You beat over half his aces but don't have any bluff equity. That plus he's checking behind with two pair or less turns this into a soul-read is there value to be had? if so, how much? hand.

He's not going to shove over as a bluff, but he's going to be wanting to showdown all his aces. This type of fish hates being stacked though. Is he calling $90 3x as often as he calls your shove? close, but probably not - meaning that a shove would make sense if this was pure value. I think the hands in his range that beat you make a smaller bet smarter. Close though.

[badgers]

Yep i agree w/ betting somewhere between $80-$100.

He's not going to shove over as a bluff, but he's going to be wanting to showdown all his aces. This type of fish hates being stacked though.

qft

Is he calling $90 3x as often as he calls your shove?

This isn't the reason why a smaller bet is better. I think we have >50% equity vs. his range for calling $90 but <50% when we shove.