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100NL, my squeeze went bad in some tough spot

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  1. #1

    Default 100NL, my squeeze went bad in some tough spot

    initial raiser is a regular running 13/10/3( ATS% is 35% and fold to 3bet% is 75%), BT is unknown. I'm lost at what to do on the turn ? I just picks up some gunshot outs but it doesnt look like this villian wants to go away if i DB on this bad turn card. PSB value & thin bluff shove or c/f here?
    No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB ($104.15)
    UTG ($61.55)
    UTG+1 ($96.60)
    MP1 ($100)
    MP2 ($5.65)
    MP3 ($100)
    CO ($40)
    Button ($94.85)
    Hero (SB) ($100)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 8
    4 folds, MP3 bets $3, 1 fold, Button calls $3, Hero raises $13, 2 folds, Button calls $10

    Flop: ($30) 8, 2, 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets $20, Button calls $20

    Turn: ($70) J (2 players)
    Hero ?
  2. #2
    BTW, i rarely play TPWK in 3 bet pots OOP this way.
  3. #3
    Rough spot. Would be better if you had reads on what he's flatting and calling a raise with. What range are you putting him on here?

    AJ? KQ? TT, JJ, 99... I think you can bet/fold this turn or check/fold depending on how often you think he's folding to a shove over the 3bet I'd be inclined to make on the jack in position or to a river draw completing. I'm probably giving up on this bluff if I'm called on the turn or raised... But if you aren't betting this turn, the entire play is bad I feel. Remember that even 55 has decent enough odds to stay in on that pot for one bet, so if you check you are leaving yourself open for a lot of counter-play that will really help his range. So Bet/Fold seems pretty good here even though it is a bad card. Then if you detect some sort of weakness or the river completes a lot of draws, you can continue. Maybe??
  4. #4
    bet/folding the turn is not an option. Checking the flop is though
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Deanglow
    bet/folding the turn is not an option. Checking the flop is though
    if we check on the flop, how many streets you are willing to c/c vs an unknown player? BTW, I c/f when he bet $30 on the turn.His range is just too strong for me to continue with this hand. Maybe he sensed my weakness and bluffed me off the hand
  6. #6
    I don't really like preflop.

    We have a great multi-way hand with a presumed donk in the BU who's gunna be calling enough to make this awkward. I'd rather just call pre and "play some poker", even OOP.
  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by d0zer
    I don't really like preflop.

    We have a great multi-way hand with a presumed donk in the BU who's gunna be calling enough to make this awkward. I'd rather just call pre and "play some poker", even OOP.
    I agree. Squeezing an unknown oop is probably not good with 89s. Also betting flop and c/f turn seems bad too from an ABCD theorem point of view
    Quote Originally Posted by ISF
    Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
  8. #8
    I think preflop is marginal, calling and squeezing are both fine imo.

    Flop, checking is an option, but I would probably bet $12-$14 like I would with my entire betting range. This leaves a bit of room to bet/fold scary turns, and maybe gets calls from worse..
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  9. #9
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    i like the squeeze given reads.
    Flop check > cbet $15 > cbet $20.
    Villain has an overpair way too often.

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