3/6 - boat utg, simple sizing spot

[griffey24]

-villain is very good stars reg bfl4me
-we haven't had much history together at all, he prob views me as 21/18/3ish type. Not sure what he thinks of my utg range
-I'd like to somehow get it in here, though not sure that's possible. Small bet to induce a c/r? Overbet?

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($721)
CO ($756)
BTN ($1,455.75)
SB ($651)
BB ($1,006.75)

Pre-Flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $21, 3 folds, BB calls $15

Flop: ($45, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

Turn: ($105, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $78, BB calls $78

River: ($261, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets ...

[BigPapi]

His likely range against your UTG open is probably pretty narrow from BB. With the lack of draws on this board and him calling twice, his most likely holdings are a Q imo.

If we bet small (say 90) he might raise, but he'd raise to something like 300 probably and we dont get stacks against a reg if we shove over since our range will be narrow.

If we bet like 200 we're still keeping our range wide and a raise from him would be a shove. So we get more when called and if he likes his hand it's for stacks for sure.

The overbet will likely not be called by the bottom of his calling range (like JJ for example?). I think it still gets calls, but wont get shoved over enough to be more profitable then a bet of 200

I think the best way to try and play for stacks is to just bet 200, but I dont know if it's the best/most profitable betsize in terms of how many times a betsize will get called.

So 200 > overbet > small bet imo

[griffey24]

Yah I thought about making a very small bet, around 90-100 (rep thin value with KK/AA?) and hope he c/r'd good Qx. But I figured even if he did c/r, he might not call if I shove over given how strong it looks.

The main question is, how wide his range for "c/c'ing and NOT c/r is". If he's going to just c/c a 200 bet (and not c/r), and will also c/c the same range of hands for 330ish then clearly an overbet would be better.

[IowaSkinsFan]

betting small to induce a c/r is incredibly stupid here

Just bet big

[BigPapi]

yes definitely grif. Since his range of hands is (or we think it is) so narrow in this situation I dont think his c/c range will differ much between the 2 bigger betsizes. The only thing that might change is his c/r range, but that's even narrower so it might be best to just select the size that gets called the most.

The only hands we're going to get value from are AQ/KQ and maybe TT-JJ. I doubt he'll call 33 pf but for this particular hand it doesnt matter anyway what size we choose on river. If he thinks our UTG contains lower Q's like QJ and QT, then the situation changes that he might be more inclined to raise KQ. It's always difficult to say how an opponent will react in certain spots with certain holdings so all we can do is take our best guess.

If he thinks we're going for light value here w AA/KK he's not calling with JJ/TT and calls/raises 75/25% with KQ and probably raise AQ.

If we bet 200 I think we have AA/KK less often, so either have a Q or better or are full of it, so he might bluffcatch with JJ/TT, call KQ and raise AQ

If we overbet like 330 he may still bluffcatch JJ/TT and call both KQ and AQ.

[OP]

betting small to induce a c/r is incredibly stupid here

Just bet big

This

He's not going to valuetown himself with a naked Q on a c/r since you're calling range is like 90% boats.

I'd bet like 220-250

and fwiw I'd merge overpairs here against this particular guy

[Numbr2intheWorld]

betting small to induce a c/r is incredibly stupid here

Just bet big

[mixchange]

His calling range is pretty inelastic, so I'd bet big. Doesn't seem like a spot where villain will consider turning a made hand into a bluff, so I can't see getting much out of inducaments.