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I know what villain has, but I'm not sure how to bluff -50nl

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  1. #1

    Default I know what villain has, but I'm not sure how to bluff -50nl

    Villain is a tagg reg with high cbet % and with stats and reads I'm sure he has JJ+, maybe with a diamond as well. If we assume thats his only range, what is the best betsizing/timing on turn n river that will lead him to fold?

    He most likely sees me as a nittier tag than normal who does not get outta line.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -

    saw flop

    UTG ($52.25)
    MP ($50.90)
    Hero (CO) ($136.45)
    Button ($49.25)
    SB ($49.50)
    BB ($8.20)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
    UTG bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

    Flop: ($4.75) , , (2 players)
    UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

    Turn: ($11.75) (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50 (Should I have bet bigger? Pot? Overbet so I can bluff bigger on the river?

    River: ($26.75) (2 players)
    UTG checks,
  2. #2
    What makes you think he wants to fold? I really dont get your preflop or flop play either.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  3. #3
    You're going to lose a lot of monies trying to push people off of overpairs.
  4. #4
    I wouldn't be too happy getting it in against his UTG 4bet range, and I dont mind playing post flop with AKo. His going to cbet that board close to 100% of the time and with my tight nit imagine I think there are enough scare cards n money behind to bluff him out on later streets(plus maybe can spike A/K). Ultimately I think we would be putting villain in a tough guessing spot OOP against a tight player with only one pair. Leakage thinking?
  5. #5
    pre is fine, I think the float is fine, turn is ok too imo.

    If you think he's capable of folding JJ+ here then just overshove river...you don't look like you have any bluffs in your range, but I wouldn't do it without a good read cuz I don't expect many players at 50NL to be laying down overpairs nearly enough to make that profitable.

    Also there's a chance you're ahead of his KdQx.
  6. #6
    I don't mind flatting prelfop.

    But postflop, with you having two overcards and the backdoor nutflush draw. I would raise his flopcbet. He's going to fold a very high percentage of the time.

    When he doesn't fold, you take the initaitive in the hand. That's huge because now you control the pot.

    Most of hte time, he's going to flat with 77 88 99 T. JJ he may 3bet and you can fold without feeling too badly.

    But I liek to take initiative. I would then bet any diamond on the turn very hard. If I actually hit an A or a K, i would check behind for deception then value bet close to pot on the river.

    I don't really liek the way you played it. As played, I would check behind the turn because I think our Ace high is actually ahead of a ton of his hands. He very well might have AQ AJ and thats fine. No need to bet here.

    I would bet teh turn if you had total air though

    And the river is just a check behind.
  7. #7
    If you're betting the turn you have to be betting every river. Otherwise you should just check back the turn and try to get there.

    I'd bet bigger on turn and probably just shove the river.
  8. #8
    Or I'd just chk back the turn and try to get there on the river. Either line is fine.

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