I got the aces 600NL

[Deanglow]

Villain is an ok 15/11 with 4.6 3bet over 700 hands. We have never really got involved in big pots or situations like this before. He should expect me to bet/fold and check/fold the turn a lot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($615.75)
BB ($894.75)
UTG ($672.15)
MP1 ($268.05)
MP2 ($600)
Hero (CO) ($600)
Button ($771.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($45) 4, 3, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button raises to $84, Hero calls $54

Turn: ($213) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($213) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $145, Hero

[Jason]

I only play $50NL, but I probably call here - I see lots of overcards in his range and missed draws. It looks like you've under-repped your hand a little when you checked for pot control on the turn, so that river bet isn't as scary as it would normally look. I don't see many hands you lose to other than a set he played a little tricky - possibly two pair, but that's a small part of his range, too.

[daven]

unless he's uber-levelling this is pretty much a fold.
I don't see him betting 77-QQ on that river.

[Muzzard]

unless he's uber-levelling this is pretty much a fold.
I don't see him betting 77-QQ on that river.

So he's never bluff raising this flop? and never bluffing the river? Or never betting like Kxhh for value?

[Jason]

Ya, I was going to say, do they never bluff at that level? Cause I bluff ... a lot I think our hand looks like 77-AA and possibly some speculative junk that didn't hit, so I don't think he can put us on anything that connects well to that board any more than we can him. We just happen to have the top of that range. But, yeah, if he's the type that would never get out of line and you have that read, then no need to spew off money, but if that's how he plays his big hands, he should be pretty profitable to play against long term.

[oskar]

unless he's uber-levelling this is pretty much a fold.
I don't see him betting 77-QQ on that river.

So he's never bluff raising this flop? and never bluffing the river? Or never betting like Kxhh for value?

I think you can expect him to barrel his bluffs and semi-bluffs on that turn a lot... I think that skews it a lot towards value range on the river.
Would you call this with 77? Because I think his range is polarized enough that AA is nothing but a bluff catcher. The only Kx in his range on the river is KhQh... KhJh if he's feeling it :P - so even if he doesn't barrel the turn it's not much of his value range.

[badgers]

For sure he can have Kx in his range... KhQh and KhJh, but also just random bluffs... Idk wtf he else he can have for value other than sets and his range preflop and on the flop is so wide that I can't lay this down just because we expect him to barrel turn a lot.

[daven]

So he's never bluff raising this flop? and never bluffing the river? Or never betting like Kxhh for value?

I didn't say never bluffing the river, nor did I see never betting Kxhh for value. It's not about never, it's about whether the frequency is enough to make this a call.

he considers himself to be raising this flop for value way more than he thinks he's bluffing (even though raising JJ here is a bluff he won't see it like that), and if he's bluffing he pretty much always has a strong draw.

Some hands he can call pre-flop then raise this flop with:
22-QQ inclusive, KhQh, AhQh, AhKh. And he can check turn ehind with any of them for all sorts of reasons - especially cos hero has only a tiny number of flush draws in range. I don't see him bluffing the river, but maybe betting the kings in his range for value. So, how about calling him a river value range of 22-66, AhKh, KhQh. You still loving the call?

for what it's worth, I spew call this river a lot. But that's cos I suck. I think it's long term losing $$.

[badgers]

so daven he never has 87hh-QJhh, 97hh-QThh, 87s, 97s, A7s etc...? I could go on with all the air he has, there's loads possible. If dean has a high cbet % this is even more of a call.

[Muzzard]

so daven he never has 87hh-QJhh, 97hh-QThh, 87s, 97s, A7s etc...? I could go on with all the air he has, there's loads possible. If dean has a high cbet % this is even more of a call.

+1.

also given this is Co vs BU the ranges are wider here. It's not like its UTG vs UTG+1 daven.

[Deanglow]

i would check/fold this flop most of the time iirc but I don't think he knows that because we haven't played much

[daven]

I like this thread. I may even end up convinced that i was wrong in my initial response

87hh-QJhh, 97hh-QThh, 87s, 97s, A7s etc...? I could go on with all the air he has, there's loads possible. If dean has a high cbet % this is even more of a call.

Agree, he can bluff with this air - but I think there's a decent likelihood that people overestimate the role of these types of hands in his range. Sure, they're there sometimes, but definitely not as much as we think. Main reason is that, as muzz so eloquently pointed out, it's co vs bu, meaning that the blinds are going to be squeezing quite a bit, which further means that a decent reg will be calling with sc types of hands probably less frequently than if dean was opening from UTG?

Dunno. Just feels as though I rarely win calling in spots like this vs half decent or better players - but maybe it's cos i'm folding here too much and not giving myself the chance.
Food for thought.

[nutsinho]

RAISE

[Da GOAT]

nuts, you saying c/r river?

Imo I think his range contains a fair amount of missed draws that took a free card on turn. At best he has a pair which wont call a c/r on a 4 card straight flop. Having said that I feel he will just fold to a c/r anyway since he has no hands in his range to call a c/r with, so id say theres no value to gain in a c/r?

[Extremophile]

What kind of hands is he folding to c/r and with what kinds is he calling?

[Da GOAT]

imo pretty much all are folding and none are calling thus I dont get why we are c/r'ing. i dont beleive we are c/r'ing as a bluff so I get why we are for value here since i dont see why. must be something im missing.

[nutsinho]

uhh no i think he has a set allllllll day and while he may smash things when we go all in there isnt a very good reason for him to call us

[Renton]

i'd just 3bet the flop, i'm a simple man

with your image though u should probably just take this line and fold. You probably can't have a 5 from preflop (zing nit) so c/r river isn't credible.

[grindinginnj]

I 3 bet flop too. And i think he has alot of missed draws in his range and probably hit K.(KQhKJh). Doesnt villian bet set on the turn for value.