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50nl - how many barrels?

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  1. #1

    Default 50nl - how many barrels?

    Villain is a TAG regular, a bit on the tight side, 13/10/33% ATS. I doubt he's ever folding this flop (50% fold to cbet and it's JJ5) plus he has tons of pocket pairs in his range. We haven't tangled at all, in a session of 100ish hands I've 3bet him once from the blinds and he folded. FWIW I also have a pretty tight image at this table and haven't been getting out of line, I think I'm running about 13/10 which is tighter than normal for me.

    I'm guessing a cbet is fine as long as we follow up on turn/river?

    Question: how many barrels are we looking to fire here and what would be ideal for sizing? Not sure if this turn is the best to bluff at because we rep kinda thin (though we are utg) and it doesn't change the board much. So I'm thinking if I choose to fire this turn I need to fire the river also. Would you guys ever do that vs someone who is relatively unknown but seems to play a pretty standard tight aggressive game?

    Perhaps c/f is fine somewhere I'm just an idiot who likes to try pushing people off hands regardless of board texture :/

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP2 ($38)
    CO ($92.35)
    Button ($49.25)
    SB ($71.70)
    BB ($95.65)
    Hero (UTG) ($59.30)
    UTG+1 ($70.15)
    MP1 ($12.15)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
    Hero bets $1.50, 4 folds, Button calls $1.50, 2 folds

    Flop: ($3.75) 5, J, J (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.50, Button calls $2.50

    Turn: ($8.75) 6 (2 players)
    Hero?

    If we bet this turn though we have to fire almost any river right given that the turn didn't change the board?
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    Personally I would just give up here.

    ?wut
  3. #3
    Yeah..trying to push people off better hands at SSNL is not how I used to actually beat these games.

    I am a spew box ;(
  4. #4
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  5. #5
    Betting this turn doesn't seem like we're repping THAT thin to me...
    Ich grolle nicht...
  6. #6
    Given our position and board texture I think we need to either fire 1 and be done or 3 barrels because he's not folding any pair TT or lower to 2 barrels but will probably cringe at 3 regardless of which turn/river peels off..depending on how much of a station he is.
  7. #7
    Nothing wrong with betting turn nothing wrong with checking
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Deanglow
    Nothing wrong with betting turn nothing wrong with checking
    If it's so close that it doesn't matter much I think I'd just check without better reads.

    If we bet turn are we firing almost any river?
  9. #9
    As a rule of thumb, I don't like betting out paired boards like these on the flop as the villain is likely way ahead or way behind. By betting, I also think it tends to polarize our range to monster or air type hands. So, I would tend to check and then possibly fire two barrels. Trying to fire 3 barrels on this board just doesn't seem profitable.
    - Jason

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    As a rule of thumb, I don't like betting out paired boards like these on the flop as the villain is likely way ahead or way behind. By betting, I also think it tends to polarize our range to monster or air type hands. So, I would tend to check and then possibly fire two barrels. Trying to fire 3 barrels on this board just doesn't seem profitable.
    C/B/B makes no sense to me in this spot. If the villain has 77 he isn't folding to c/b/b that often imo. Seems like you're only getting hands that would've folded anyways to fold to c/b/b, while giving them a chance to draw to a callable hand or bluff you off on the turn.

    Since you're UTG, betting this flop is repping the entirety of your range, while checking it is repping exactly what you have. I feel it's more likely he'll see c/b/b for exactly what it is in this spot rather than you getting tricky with a hand.
  11. #11
    Whether or not he will fold to 3 barrels or 2 with hands like 77 is debateable and I'm not really interested in that part. But, I disagree that betting the flop is repping your entire range because MOST players with a Jack will not bet that flop in my opinion. In fact, I would expect most players with hands like AK to bet this flop or maybe hands like pocket deuces or threes, a five, or AIR. Hands like TT, QQ-AA and any Jack probably don't bet this flop because they aren't worried by it. By betting it, you are making a strong likely readable statement about what you have in my opinion. In fact, a check raise on the flop would be a good play, too because if villain bets flop, he's in the same clap trap and can be exploited.
    - Jason

  12. #12
    If you are only c/r'ing for value you are getting exploited. c/r'ing a tiny range is more exploitable than betting a wide one (I believe?)

    Why would QQ+ or Jx not bet this flop? Do you think 77 is folding to a cbet?

    If I bet AK here it's because I'm betting QQ+ etc. I am betting (most?all?) of my range here.

    If you advocate c/r bluffing here (with AK) perhaps that's not a bad idea.

    fwiw I'm really confused about what you posted and I don't know wtf I'm talking about in this reply.
  13. #13
    rpm's Avatar
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    i personally tend to shut down on that turn because it doesn't really change the board texture at all. he probably even peels the turn with his middling pairs because our range appears pretty polar and he has the comfort of position. kind of makes me question whether there is any value in betting this flop w/AK, i know i would do it. hmm...
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
    If you are only c/r'ing for value you are getting exploited. c/r'ing a tiny range is more exploitable than betting a wide one (I believe?)

    Why would QQ+ or Jx not bet this flop? Do you think 77 is folding to a cbet?
    If you only do anything, it can be exploited, but I don't think that automatically check raising a wide value is profitable. I think check raising can be profitable both for value and as a bluff in certain situations and you have to balance that out. Balance does not mean an even distribution - if check raising as a bluff is 100% the right play, you should mix in some calls about 10% to 20% of the time to be "balanced" if you are playing an opponent who requires balance because they are good and observant and will exploit you ALWAYS doing something.

    I don't know if QQ+ or Jx would not bet that flop, but against MOST reasonable opponents, I would think you WOULD want to do that because you are either way ahead or way behind. Checking is a less polarizing move because monster hands like QQ+ should check it as much as air or a hand with showdown value like AK. When you bet, I think it's generally a strong statement about your hand. It sounds like you're saying to your opponent, "I either have a monster hand I want to get value with or I have a hand that can't stand a lot of heat and I'd prefer you fold NOW please". With position, this information can really help your opponent.

    I just think if you're trying to push a hand like 77 off this flop, a check raise is the best way to do it or possibly a double barrel AFTER the flop assuming some good barreling cards come. Both of those lines are consistent with the story that you have a good hand in the context of a way ahead, way behind board texture. This 6 isn't a good card to barrel in this case because it doesn't help our actual hand or perceived range and it doesn't hurt villain's perceived range either - it also completes no draws and only introduces a couple of backdoor draws which we obviously can't credibly expect to represent now or on the river.

    Obviously all of this is villain dependent. Against fish, I often DO bet these boards when I'm way ahead because they will pay me off and I don't think of barreling when I'm behind for the same reasons.
    - Jason

  15. #15
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    I would just bet the turn as their range shoudln't have any Jx hands apart from JJ given we opened PF UTG and given they have taggy stats.

    We can rep a pretty good range here if we two barrel and it's goign to fold most of their PP range that isn't 55/66. I'd probably give up if called on turn as they'll likely have QQ/66/55 and aren't goign to fold imo. I guess I don't mind another river barrel if the card isn't like T/Q/ and you think he can fold QQ or other random PP's he's called x2 with? Idk. Obv b/f.
  16. #16
    @ jason:

    I don't think having our betting range polarized is a bad thing here, we've opened from early position so our perceived range doesn't include much air.
  17. #17
    i find it really hard to answer this post because I bet anything from -/3barrels here depending on what i think of the reg (yes sometimes I c/f flop because if villain calls w/ QQ+ here his range~=~our range so i don't see the point of trying to bluff 100% of the time if he's the sort to play back a lot....)
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