100nl - deep with flush and villain likes his hand

[Micro2Macro]

villain is 23/20 with a 58% ATS over 111 hands. I've only 3bet him twice this session. He probably sees me as 18/14ish and positionally aware. He saw me get my stack by stacking someone with a set where I c/r flop and then c/r turn.

River is intersesting. I'm not sure exactly how good/bad he is postflop as he's basically just been taking down pots preflop. How much would you raise here for value? If we got shoved on that would be kinda sick :/

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($100.50)
BB ($117.80)
UTG ($105.85)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($149.75)
CO ($173.45)
Hero (Button) ($207.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, Q
3 folds, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5, 6, A (2 players)
CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($35.50) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $25, Hero (about $130 effective)

[Micro2Macro]

Board: 6h 5h Ac 7c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.385% 15.38% 00.00% 2 0.00 { Qh9h }
Hand 1: 84.615% 84.62% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah8h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, Th8h, 4h3h, 3h2h }


hmm..this assumes he doesn't call a raise with worse than a flush.

I think I missed a couple worse flushes he could have in there but I guess stove shows we're likely behind alot since the board blocks alot of the lower suited connectors/gappers he's opening with from this position.

[Pelion]

I think you answered your question :P.

[Micro2Macro]

Yup haha, I guess the advantage to posting it though is it will motivate me to actually figure it out rather than just letting the HH sit in my database and only be glanced at

[daven]

call river, nice hand, next...

[Deanglow]

not raising somewhere is pretty awful

[Micro2Macro]

not raising somewhere is pretty awful

why? what street are you thinking of in particular?

[daven]

not raising somewhere is pretty awful

why? what street are you thinking of in particular?

flop cos of his sizing and getting a free turn etc

turn is the street to raise though if you're going to raise cos that's where there is value to be had - he'll be calling his flush draws (any Ah/Kh in his range), etc. Hell, even a bunch of aces without a heart because you look a lot like Ahx etc
Also you gotta be hating another heart peeling cos there goes any chance of value plus the hero call in that spot would be kinda gross.

[Micro2Macro]

I disagree with raising flop however I strongly agree with raising turn for reasons stated.

[grindinginnj]

I think u should have raised turn, lot of hands that still call u. and protecting in case he has AorKh in his hand. As played call river.

[badgers]

yep def raise turn, as played I think you can raise/fold river.

[Micro2Macro]

yep def raise turn, as played I think you can raise/fold river.

I thought about doing this in play and hesitated for a bit (actually went into timebank mode trying to figure out his calling range in my head), it felt too thin at the time so I just called and felt like total weaksauce when he showed 3h2h lol. For some reason I didn't think about raising the turn which is weird...I guess I was so compelled to trap him that I forgot to just think about his goddamn range.

Now on the river, for or a raise size what would you suggest? Something small like $60 perhaps?

[Sasquach991]

Board: 6h 5h Ac 7c 3d

Turn: ($15.50) 7 (2 players)

[youtwitface]

raise turn

[badgers]

yeah $60 ish sounds about right. Just give him odds he can't refuse and give yourself room to get away if he 3bets..

[Micro2Macro]

Board: 6h 5h Ac 7c 3d

Turn: ($15.50) 7 (2 players)

son of a bitch

[grindinginnj]

yep def raise turn, as played I think you can raise/fold river.

why would u raise river here. Am i missing something.

[badgers]

yep def raise turn, as played I think you can raise/fold river.

why would u raise river here. Am i missing something.

I don't know. We have a flush which is massively under-repped and I think there's value to be had from sets and stubborn 2 pairs so I want to raise.

[Outlaw]

3-bet or fold preflop.

As played, raise river.

You missed a lot of value on the turn by not raising there imo.

[Micro2Macro]

3-bet or fold preflop.

As played, raise river.

You missed a lot of value on the turn by not raising there imo.

He's opening a wide enough range and he had a really high cbet % so I felt calling preflop was +EV especially given stack sizes. I'll be able to take a ton of pots away from him on many flops with a bluff raise or have the option of floating other flops with good equity depending on board texture. I felt I could play more hands IP vs him by widening my calling range to exploit his very wide opening range, thus 3betting with the top of my folding range would include weaker hands than normal. My hand still has decent postflop value, but if it were Q7s, I'd be 3betting. If he was a nit I'd 3bet preflop or if he was really good I'd 3bet preflop but he was playing in a fairly obviously exploitable way.

[youtwitface]

lol nice

[Micro2Macro]

lol nice

What kind of contribution to this thread is this? If you've got something useless to say please save it for a thread that doesn't/didn't have potential for discussion.

[Illfavor]

3-bet or fold preflop.

As played, raise river.

You missed a lot of value on the turn by not raising there imo.

He's opening a wide enough range and he had a really high cbet % so I felt calling preflop was +EV especially given stack sizes. I'll be able to take a ton of pots away from him on many flops with a bluff raise or have the option of floating other flops with good equity depending on board texture. I felt I could play more hands IP vs him by widening my calling range to exploit his very wide opening range, thus 3betting with the top of my folding range would include weaker hands than normal. My hand still has decent postflop value, but if it were Q7s, I'd be 3betting. If he was a nit I'd 3bet preflop or if he was really good I'd 3bet preflop but he was playing in a fairly obviously exploitable way.

While I generally prefer to have an actual read when doing this, I agree with this analysis. The FE potential is tremendous and such. It's not like it's bad playing vs. ppl with indeterminate ranges...