AA 3bet pot, river pairs Q - 50NL

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is a pretty standard tightish reg running 15/12, 18% steal over 1.1k+ hands. Doesnt get outta line from what ive seen, He folds to 3bs 57% of the time and 4bets only 5%. I have been 3betting quite a bit in the last few orbits and I never expect him to 4b bluff me but mite defend against the squeeze a bit lighter. As played, with only $19.50 on the river, what should I do? What about my turn bet sizing? Should I have bet bigger leaving a super small river bet or should I have overbet shoved?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -

SB ($53.55)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($67.65)
MP ($82.70)
CO ($50.15)
Button ($67.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
3 folds, Button bets $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $6.50, Button calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.50) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls $9

Turn: ($32.50) (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button calls $15

River: ($62.50) (2 players)

[Alexos]

10-11$ on flop + shove turn >>> gay bet+ gayer bet

you're not making a mistake by shoving river so just do that, he'll have 99-JJ a bunch, and c/f seems pretty bad

[griffey24]

meh after the sizing is all messed.. there's not much you can do other than shove.

It really tilts me when people get to rivers with crappy sizing left, these things need to be planned earlier! This is not a small thing.. sizing can drastically change the result you want in a hand. Getting folds and calls in spots you don't want them.. or vice versa.

If you wanna bet 3 streets, then you gotta go $5, $10, $28. I don't really like those bet sizings though, so I think $10, shove is way better.

[gabe]

10-11$ on flop + shove turn >>> gay bet+ gayer bet

why? taking that line (where you shove turn) is bad for balance too

[Ravageur]

pf and flop sizing looks good to me, i'd bet bigger on turn - 19 oir something - and shoving this river is necessary

[griffey24]

10-11$ on flop + shove turn >>> gay bet+ gayer bet

why? taking that line (where you shove turn) is bad for balance too

I don't think its bad for balance. It lets us shove hearts on turn, or some OESD or combo draw we might have.

[bode]

this is usually a standard shove, but vs a villain that is that nitty over a good sample size, i cant really see him calling 2 streets without a Q or KK here, and based on his nittiness and 5% 4bet i think he's getting KK in pre alot.

[nutsinho]

the flop comes Q84r and you want to get it in over 2 streets? when do you bet 3 streets?

[griffey24]

the flop comes Q84r and you want to get it in over 2 streets? when do you bet 3 streets?

When hero sizes flop cbetting accordingly. It's hard to go 3 streets once he bets 9 on the flop. If we bet 5 on flop, we can go 5, 11, 27.

[Alexos]

10-11$ on flop + shove turn >>> gay bet+ gayer bet

why? taking that line (where you shove turn) is bad for balance too

is it? You can shove lots of turns when you improve your equity..

i think its bad for balance to have 1/3 pot on river

[meeloche]

On this board my standard would be to bet 3 streets half pot half pot half pot. The reason you have 1/3 pot on the river is because you bet 9 instead of 7 on the flop.

I would only bet big enough to shove turn if the board was much more coordinated and you were more worried about protection. This board is pretty close to the safest board so no reason to bet big imo.

[minSim]

I dunno, because of this being a sqeeuze pot we can't go 3 streets of half pot, because we'd have less then half pot on the river which makes little sense.

So you'd have to go with a under half pot bet on flop and turn to leave a decent riverbet.
I always thought one of the reasons half pot flop and turn in 3bet pots is good because it leaves a good riverbet left.

As that's not really possibly here, you might as well pot flop pot turn.

And really, I think it doesn't matter THAT much. You want crying calls from underpairs anyway and their decision doesn't change that much imo.
A pro of betting small is that someone might spazz shove. A pro of potting flop is that 8x+ is calling 1 street always and might fold the turn so for the times he does fold the turn we profit more from a larger flop bet.

[AnTman_69]

I dunno, because of this being a sqeeuze pot we can't go 3 streets of half pot, because we'd have less then half pot on the river which makes little sense.

So you'd have to go with a under half pot bet on flop and turn to leave a decent riverbet.
I always thought one of the reasons half pot flop and turn in 3bet pots is good because it leaves a good riverbet left.

As that's not really possibly here, you might as well pot flop pot turn.

And really, I think it doesn't matter THAT much. You want crying calls from underpairs anyway and their decision doesn't change that much imo.
A pro of betting small is that someone might spazz shove. A pro of potting flop is that 8x+ is calling 1 street always and might fold the turn so for the times he does fold the turn we profit more from a larger flop bet.

What's wrong with betting slightly under half pot on the flop.?

[minSim]

I dunno, because of this being a sqeeuze pot we can't go 3 streets of half pot, because we'd have less then half pot on the river which makes little sense.

So you'd have to go with a under half pot bet on flop and turn to leave a decent riverbet.
I always thought one of the reasons half pot flop and turn in 3bet pots is good because it leaves a good riverbet left.

As that's not really possibly here, you might as well pot flop pot turn.

And really, I think it doesn't matter THAT much. You want crying calls from underpairs anyway and their decision doesn't change that much imo.
A pro of betting small is that someone might spazz shove. A pro of potting flop is that 8x+ is calling 1 street always and might fold the turn so for the times he does fold the turn we profit more from a larger flop bet.

What's wrong with betting slightly under half pot on the flop.?

Not much wrong with it, but why is it better then a pot bet?
Only reason I'd take the smallbets line here is if I thought villain would call a small turn bet with underpairs but would fold to a shove OR if I'd care a lot about balancing.

[ChipTrix]

Well, of course you're shoving the river. If you're planing on check / calling, then you should always be shoving here because you're obviously going to lose value from hands that will check behind.

As far as your bet sizing, yes it needs some work and planning. You're much better off making a larger bet size on the flop and shoving turn because you're going to lose value from some hands that might have scare cards come from them on the turn or river (especially against a nit).