100NL, i played this hand sooo badly vs an uber nit

[pokerfan]

villian is themobfather , a nit running 11/8/2 with 3 bet 3%. Wtf he CRAI on the river? I thought that a small river bet might get some value from AJ, AQ or even QQ+?Can I 3 bet preflop vs this guy in this position? Is there anything i can do better in this spot?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($100.45)
SB ($104.70)
BB ($48.45)
UTG ($83.40)
UTG+1 ($105.85)
MP1 ($153.75)
Hero (MP2) ($106.85)
MP3 ($116.60)
CO ($146.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 7, A, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $6, Hero calls $6, 1 fold

Turn: ($21.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $15, Hero calls $15

River: ($51.50) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises $81.85 (All-In), [color=#666666][i]Hero ?

[BankItDrew]

Certainly a 3bet pre is what I would be doing here, even against this nit UTG.

Pretty sick river action here. Have you ever seen him do anything remotely close to this before?

[daven]

you look like a draw. He checks to induce a bluff cos he knows you're folding those missed draws to a river bet. His range for doing this is AA/AK/AQ and some weird shit so you call.

[Pelion]

@daven: You really think AK checkraises? The check seems fine but the raise seems really really thin, and I expect bad. And AQ? Can he really expect us to call preflop, and then call down, and then bet out AJ? And then call a big c/r? o.O. That just doesnt seem likely at all. Wed check AJ behind on this river a tonne.

So, if he check/raises AQ on this river hes a nutter. Even AK seems pretty bad since he must expect us to check AQ (and certainly worse made hands) behind, so the times we bet we arent usually calling the raise unless weve slowplayed something. His value range here just has to be monsters.

[pokerfan]

Certainly a 3bet pre is what I would be doing here, even against this nit UTG.

Pretty sick river action here. Have you ever seen him do anything remotely close to this before?

no history at all. His fold to 3bet% is like 70%.

[badgers]

Preflop - I think calling/ 3betting are both fine. I think I call here a lot more than most.

Flop and turn are standard

River is a bit lame. It feels like a spot where you need to bet for value and I would here just looking to get value fromm AQ, but there's not really any nut hands we can have at all here so.... It looks like a good spot for villain to c/r bluff but without a read that he's capable of making big moves/ bluffing for his stack then I'm just gonna fold and move on. He's definitely never c/raising AK/AQ though unless he's terrible and not very nitty! I think his range is more like AA/77/55 (33 rarely) and air.

[griffey24]

If you're going to bet the river and rep a missed draw, then you have to BET the river like a missed draw. A missed draw wouldn't bet $16, it would bet like 35ish.

As played, this spot sucks since he's a huge mega nit but you also bet such an inducing amount. This all comes down to what he's capable of, and nothing to do with stats.

[pokerfan]

If you're going to bet the river and rep a missed draw, then you have to BET the river like a missed draw. A missed draw wouldn't bet $16, it would bet like 35ish.

As played, this spot sucks since he's a huge mega nit but you also bet such an inducing amount. This all comes down to what he's capable of, and nothing to do with stats.

yeah, from the villian's perspective, he must know i have TPGK or TPTK on this board. I really doubt that he tries to bluff & push me off my hand even if its indeed an inducing amount. Also, i have yet to see uber nits CRAI on river with worse than TPTK in these low stakes.

[Deanglow]

3betting pre is pretty bad and your bet sizing on the river is worse. He isn't capable of bluffing here so fold

[grindinginnj]

I like your style Dean str8 and to the point.. No way he could bluff there.

[BankItDrew]

I like raising the turn frequently. Raising the turn gives me a hard on tbh. You're so ahead here so often.

[Lifer]

don't bet river, his range is:
hands that split/beat you
hands that lol and fold

and since he's an ubernit who barreled turn, he's not folding much (but he might lol, as I'm sure he did this time)

[wakeup]

I like raising the turn frequently. Raising the turn gives me a hard on tbh. You're so ahead here so often.

But what worse can we get called by?

[BankItDrew]

I like raising the turn frequently. Raising the turn gives me a hard on tbh. You're so ahead here so often.

But what worse can we get called by?

Weaker aces and drawing hands. Try not to give opponents too much credit for folding 2nd best. The main reason for the raise is not for value though.

[Lifer]

Fold out chops and it's less than calling a 3rd barrel if he's got a set amirite? Added bonus he's never gonna bluff or shove AK so after we raise we'll play perfectly.

[fjuanl]

So is the plan to r/f turn and check back rivers if called? I've seen this line talked about in a book somewhere but it was with something like AQ on QcTc7h5h.

[Deanglow]

Call flop, call turn and vbet river 2/3 is so so standard here.

[Micro2Macro]

why are you gay betting the river?

agree with deanglow, don't see any reason to raise the turn..though doing it with AQ would be kinda cool I think..

I doubt a guy who is 11/8 is going to think about c/r'ing with a better hand than you here, he's probably just going to bet without much thought and hope you call, so after you make this real inducing bet, I don't think folding is really that great..

[Juice®]

That pathetic river bet looks like top pair trying to squeeze more value out of worse Aces... he either has you crushed or he's made one hell of a river bluff if he thinks you're capable of mucking it. In my experience, river check-raises are the tits.