QQ 3bet pot, get C/R by nitty 3bettor on flop - 50NL

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is 17/13/2.3, 3b:2% (4% from BB) over 1.1k hand and in my opinion is not a very good player. I have some notes on him but none are relevant to 3bet pots. With his such low 3bet%, I didn't want to 4b/call and at best flip for ~140bb. The plan was to flat and raise cbet/call on low boards (leakage?). When he checked, I was expecting a C/F, but this kinda threw me off. Is their a chance that he might be thinking I'm trying to steal it since my flop bet sucks donkey balls?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -
SB ($56.65)
BB ($68.65)
UTG ($52.75)
MP ($107.35)
CO ($64.10)
Hero (Button) ($68.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
3 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.25) , , (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB raises to $16

[Micro2Macro]

if you expect him to just c/f why are you betting

[eragotte]

Okay i started writing about this hand then it turned into a huge ramble, I think your stats are very relevant here as well as if he knows your stats or what he thinks of you. Further, flop bet is gay, bet $8.5 next time and it saves a lot of guessing. Anyways heres my ramble:

there's a chance he has anything since you say he is a bad 50nl player... but more likely he has aces or kings and didnt want to bet because he thought you would float a semi drawy board to a cbet and new you would cbet if he checked hence he checks to make it bigger on the flop and hopefully end it there or find out if you have a stupid hand with a 9.. he probably has aa/kk/maybe AdKd but then again JJ probably looks like the nuts in his situation... and i'd probably c/r jj-like 22 here but i dont 3 bet 4% from bb...

anyways next time bet the flop 8.5$ so you have an easier decision since now his range is AA/KK/AKdd and sometimes JJ/TT but i think you have to fold even if your equity is okay vs that range... even if his range is like 88/99-AA you probably have to fold because when he has AA/KK you're getting stacked and when he has 88/tt your getting little more out of him

[XTR1000]

He never has a 9 and I wouldnt bet much more on flop as you could still go 5.5 - 16 - ez shove. As played its probably a fold, unless he´s the type of guy staring at any overpair like a deer in your headlights.