AJs vs reg in 3-bet pot.

[Carroters]

Edit: Villain is 25/21 over 120 hands.

Okay, this isn't usually a spot I'd 3-bet but my reasoning was that I hadn't 3-bet this guy at all yet and he's a pretty sensible player with a fold to 3 bet of 70%. I thought for these reasons he'd give this a lot of respect and probably fold as much as everything but (AQs, AK JJ+) Given this I should maybe have chosen a hand that's more live vs his continuing range and isn't so frequently dominated. A small pair or SC would probably have been a better choice.

(I usually make this 3.5x preflop not sure why I used my standard IP amount here.)

So thoughts on preflop first?

This is a good flop for my range and I'm planning to fire at least flop and turn as again given my read that he's not spewy and plays pretty safely, I should be able to fold out AQ and TT-QQ within 2 streets.

This turn effectively means that checking now makes more sense. I'm not worried about balacnig much here given he hasn't seen me play in a 3 bet pot yet and I think betting just folds out worse and loses monies to better. His betting range on the turn should be wider than his calling range in that it may contain the odd float if he called lighter than I thought preflop.

I still think given my read I should maybe fold turn and definitely river since he just isn't bluffing here or value betting worse.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($30.45)
UTG ($25.05)
MP ($16.40)
Button ($16.75)
SB ($25.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
UTG bets $1, 3 folds, Hero raises $3.25, UTG calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.10) 4, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.10) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($28.10) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $11.05 (All-In) Hero?

[spoonitnow]

Pre-flop is fine, your blockers give your fold equity a significant boost. You're supposed to be behind when he doesn't fold, that's why it's a bluff.

On the turn when you check you need to decide if you're stacking off or not. If not, then don't call the turn.

[Icanhastreebet]

c/f flop if he's flatting JJ+/AQ/AK I think
3combos of JJ
6 combos of QQ
3 combos of KK
3 combos of AA
9 combos of AK
12 combos of AQ(Does he rly have this)

so he's definately continuing with 15 combos and is probably almost always peeling 1 w/ JJ/QQ (9 more) and folding all his AQ cept spadespade.

Your 2barrel is going to have to make him fold JJ/QQ but on this turn he's checking those back so c/f is fine.

If the turn is like a 2d you'll get him to fold JJ/QQ (9 combos) but he's still continuing with 15combos of AK/KK/AA so a 2barrel needs to work 37.5%. If you go 1/2 pot on the flop, 1/2 on the turn or even smaller if he's aware you just going to end up jamming the river then you make a slight profit with this line.

Now what if we check the flop? If he is really straight forward he'll probably check back his JJ/QQ/AQ and bet his AK/AA/KK(He's probably less likely to bet KK since he crushes the board.
So we can A) c/f flop so his AK/AA makes the minimum
B) check flop bet turn bet river (He might fold turn at this point but if he doesn't just jam the river since I don't think he'll fold JJ/QQ on the turn but will to a river jam.
If he bets his AQ when checked to there isn't much we can do and a bet becomes better so cliffnotes are...

basically if he DOES have AQ in his range betting the flop is going to be a lot more profitable if he's going to muck it. If he checks back AQ when we check to him though I prefer a check.

Also if he checks back his entire range on the flop (I don't a clue how this guy plays) he's just going to own our lives when we check so betting becomes better.

[Carroters]

Dat's helpful stuff, thanks a bunch guys.