Bad Value Bet on River?

[tyrn]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($5)
Hero (CO) ($6.60)
Button ($5)
SB ($7.25)
BB ($3.47)
UTG ($6.31)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
UTG bets $0.17, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.17, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.41) J, A, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.01) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70

River: ($2.41) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.65, UTG raises to $5.14 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $5.71 | Rake: $0.38

I think villain's range on the river is 88-TT, QQ, KK and maybe weak kicker Ax hands, am I missing anything? When they check-shove river, I think villain's representing TT and TT only. I don't think Ax ever does that. So, do i b/f or check this river behind?

[spoonitnow]

We need some stats if you have them. Also why do you think Ax never check/raises the river?

[Erpel]

Given no stats or reads or other information the only hands I put the opponent on are Ax/JJ/AA.
88-TT would likely not have called the flop.
QQ-KK would likely not have raised the river - if they do call both flop and turn (turn probably unlikely as the gutshot is not enough equity on a paired flop)
When Ax checks the river it should raise 100% of the time.

The board is double-paired. Any Tx or Ax that he has managed to end up seeing the river with crushes you. Checking behind I think is fine.

The important thing is in stats/reads etc. And history - like if you are always betting he might have noted that and be more likely to be letting you do the betting when he has a strong hand.

[OhioRounder]

I'm not really sure what a river bet here accomplishes other than leveling yourself. I don't think villain is going to call with worse, so you've just turned your hand into a bluff vs a nut range.

[tyrn]

Stats on villain after 165 hands are 13/10/0.6 .

I didn't think Ax would c/r river because my line looks exactly like Ax as well, I'd expect a call. With that said, if I'm representing Ax all along, betting the river probably folds out pocket pairs. I've seen villains with QQ, KK call down all the way on an A high board, but it probably won't happen enough to justify the large amount of hands that just caught up to me on the river. The thing that irks me about this hand is that his line looks so weak, then his shove represents a range I can't see him checking 3 streets with. He was the PFR.

My stats are 16/13/2 I don't think I bet when checked too enough for villain to have that read.

[Erpel]

I think checking river behind is still best. This is not an A-high board. It's a double-paired board. I'm not convinced KK/QQ will/should call a bet on the river. Even if they do that they are 3 and 3 combos where the potential combos for JJ and AJ (slowplay is reasonable for those yes?) alone is 3 and 6. You're just not ahead often enough to justifya value bet.

[acoss3006]

Its not a value bet if nothing worse will call you.

Bet closer to pot on the turn. Check behind on river.