re-steal in 3b pot.

[oskar]

Villain is decent at FR, but c-bets waaaaaaaaay too much short handed or in LP, and just generally spazzes when ranges are wide and he's confused.


I don't want to bore you with ranges... When he raises I think it's for value < 20% of the time.

What's my best line here?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($100)
Hero ($131)
BB ($98)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 3 players) Hero is SB
BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, BB folds, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($23, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $23.50, Hero ???

[Carroters]

Hmm seems we have to raise the flop or fold here. If he's folding to a raise 80% of the time or more this will be fine. We can't exactly float flop and then c/c a turn shove because there's a ton of hands he can be bluffing with that either have decent equity vs our shitty pair or have us dead to 2 outs already imo and just about every turn hurts our equity vs his bluff hands.

I agree his range looks rediculously weak here, since he probably just flats medium aces and 4 bets AQ AK etc preflop. So...I'd just go ahead and raise flop to a comittal looking amount like $60 and fold if he jams since he's surely never doing this without a hand. We'll save $40 which we'd otherwise have got in drawing to 2 outs this way.

[oskar]

Obviously that's an option. But I didn't like it because of his spazzy tendencies. I think he could hero call/shove with something retarded, or even bluffshove because I rep such a retarded narrow range.
So if I 3b I think it's a fairly huge 3b-shove or a pretty gay 3b/fold.

For that reason I thought any of the following would be better:
call, gaydonk turn
call, c/r turn
call, gaydonk river when he checks back turn.
call, check/fold
call, check, check/fold

I'm posting this hand because I think all options are at least slightly +EV. I'm just trying to find the most profitable.

[griffey24]

This board is so dry. If I really didn't believe him I'd call and OOP float, lead river if he checks back turn. C/F turn if he bets.

[Carroters]

This board is so dry. If I really didn't believe him I'd call and OOP float, lead river if he checks back turn. C/F turn if he bets.

If he's this spazzy, surely he's barrelling turn with such a frequency that the line call - c/f turn is just burning money and folding to a bluff too much of the time here?

Oskar - you really think he's gonna hero call/shove like 66 here if we raise flop to $60? I mean he probably doesn't have stuff like J9s here very often when he takes this flop line, even if he is spewy and aggro. So I think the only hands he can hero call the flop raise with are going to have to be underpairs to the jack most of the time and there's way more combos of random unpaired hands in his range for raising the flop than there is these. Athough, If he's good enough to realise how bluffy your range is and might shove over, then I still like raising big enough to prevent this.

[nutsinho]

anyone thought of folding?

[oskar]

Not really.
When I say spazzy - I mean spazz with limitations. If I expect him to continue to bluff with air on the turn, and hero call me all the time with 66-TT if I 3b the flop, then I'd just fold and not 3b pre to begin with. - so I think I have very good fold equity with both an oop float, and a flop 3b.
Given that villain is still a FR nitreg at heart, no, I did not think about folding too much.

In my experience players like him will almost never raise that flop for value without a set or 2 pair, but will bluffraise quite a bit if they feel like they're getting run over.



$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($100)
Hero ($131)
BB ($98)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 3 players) Hero is SB
BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, BB folds, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($23, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $23.50, Hero calls $13.50

Turn: ($70, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($70, 2 players)
Hero bets $24


Thoughts on river bet sizing?