10 left in 180, right play?

[Knytestorme]

As said, this was with 10 left in a $2 180 SnG at FT. I'm reasonably short stacked and think it was the right play given the flop and my M and Q but would like other opinions given that I was interested in trying to win the thing and not just move up a pay spot or two.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB (t21841)
BB (t41622)
UTG (t29512)
Hero (MP) (t14836)
Button (t60181)

Hero's M: 8.73

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, K
1 fold, Hero bets t2400, Button raises to t4800, SB calls t4400, 1 fold, Hero calls t2400

Flop: (t15700) 2, Q, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets t52400, SB calls t16941 (All-In), Hero ??

[drmcboy]

post reads

don't post results

I would raise 2.5x pre

pre is probably a fold vs a lot of BUs even with price

as played shove flop for sure, you want something like 88 or maybe even JT to fold, give them a chance.

[Knytestorme]

damn, had thought I had unchecked show results, apologies.

In terms of raise sizing, there was already 2100 in the middle so wouldn't the difference between 2.5x and 3x (400 chips) be almost negliable in terms of making others decide between playing or not to the raise? Or is it more that because it is negligable we may as well save ourself the extra 400 chips for those times we fold?

Hmmm, was going to comment about the fold part there and disagree but the more I think about it, if I'm willing to let go of any flop that doesn't hit me hard like this one does then I should be willing to let it go pre and save myself the 2400 chips from the raise. Give my M I agree, I should let it go pre or shove.

Also, looking over it I hate my play more. I should have shoved that flop rather than check calling two shoves....think my hope was either to get to see a cheap turn or c/r a smallish turn bet to rep a set. With a shove and call behind me I think I'm getting the right price to draw to 8 outs since I can assume any A or K is clean to the nuts for me....will try to work it out.

Pot on flop is 16500 chips and I have 9936 left.
Effective pot after shoves is 36372 or 3.66 x my remaining stack so I'm getting 3.66:1 to call for 8 outs x 2. Using the rule of 4 that's about 32% to hit on the river so I'm getting the right odds to call.

So yeah, calling or shoving on the flop had the same effect really though a shove might have dropped out the SB and reduced the odds to make it a wrong choice so I actually prefer c/c if the SB comes along and c/f if they fold, but pre was very marginal and likely a bad call overall

[drmcboy]

you're never folding on this flop regardless of the action, < PSB, 8 out draw = go time

you want to shove because you may end up with more than 8 outs

an example of cleaning up outs is BU might shove AJ here, but if you shove he'll (probably) fold, and then if you get called by Qx you win win the pot with a King.