100nl FR - river jammin'

[Micro2Macro]

Haven't really gotten involved at all with this guy before other than he's caught me c/r bluffing the turn like last month but I doubt he made a note/remembers that given he's 24 tabling sne bot yo..

anyway, I thought about betting the turn bigger (like 22 maybe???) but I'd still be left with an overbet shove on river so meh. plan was to shove any club but other than that I don't think there would really be any other reasonable card to bluff? I doubt this guy ever has a set given his line as I'm assuming he'd just get it in on the flop mostly because he's going to want the hand to end asap so he can get back to his other tables AND zomg there is a flush drawwww. My plan raising the flop is to fire any A, K, Q, J, 2, or club turn and fold if re-raised (A turn would actually be pretty gross if he c/shoved)

so like..A9s,T9s,88 maybe? all could be reasonable hands in his donk/call range on this flop as well as flush draws. since he's pretty bad I'd assume alot of the time he'd just shove the river for me if he binks a flush because he probably doesn't understand my range for shoving the river is polarized to flushes/air and that c/c is clearly a better line if he binks then to shove (or i guess if he bet like 1/2pot that would be reasonable).

is my thinking flawed there ^ ?

I guess having the ace is pretty cool because it limits the # of flushes he could have considerably (any AcXc hand he'd flat in the blinds is out, given his tightness pre and inability to adjust to me min raising 96% of buttons he won't have many low suited crap in his range.

thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($112.10)
SB ($122.85)
BB ($104.50)
UTG ($100.65)
UTG+1 ($82.80)
MP1 ($76.70)
MP2 ($196.90)
CO ($109.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, A
5 folds, Hero bets $2, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5) 9, 2, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7

Turn: ($25) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, SB calls $19

River: ($63) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $91.85 (All-In)

Total pot: $63 | Rake: $3

[caddie444]

I have found that whenever I take this sort of bluff line I usually get owned unless I have a specific read about the strength of his donking range. Sure it's possible he could have like 10-9, 88 here thinking lol you have AK and if he does I really like it, but I've also seen donks play small/medium flush draws like this and they snap riv so fast. His preflop calling stats/reads when he's in sb would help a lot too, and have you seen how he's played a set OOP?

I think if I was planning on taking this line I would betsize like $13>$27>shove

[Micro2Macro]

he's like your standard 11/9 sne grinder.

[badgers]

don't like. Why are you raising the flop? I'd probably just fold because a lot of the 11/9 bots literally only donk sets here. For that reason I really don't like the turn either, esp because TT/JJ also make up a lot of the rest of his range and may not fold turn. Don't like river since you're trying to make a brainless nit fold a big hand when your range is potentially very wide and is most definitely not limited to flushes.

[Jason]

Knowing his fold to steal % and even his steal % (shows his awareness) is pretty important when playing these types of hands so you can narrow this down to either a typical blind war to see who blinks last or if he's really playing the hand at face value. If he folds to steal 75% or more, I'm inclined to just let this go a lot earlier than you did. If he's 55% or less, then you're more likely to be able to take a bluffing line since his range is so wide and weak.

Your flop raise looks suspicious to me like someone trying to win a blind war with a pair of deuces If he IS a blind defender, that gives him validation to keep on trucking with pocket pairs and decent pieces. Before you even bet the turn, you pretty much have to be prepared to shove the river as played if you want any chance to win the hand or else checking seems more reasonable to me.

Again, it's so villain dependent. If he's really a 24 tabling SNE, I think giving up on the flop is the best plan. Those guys by and large prefer not to get into huge confrontations for the fun of it and when they perk up and give you attention, it's because they don't plan on going anywhere. But, you will definitely put him to the test with a river shove and if he WAS playing blind games with you in this hand, you've probably insured you won't have many more problems with him in the future unless he's just a glutton for punishment. And, sure, the club is a good river card ... if he doesn't have clubs

[Micro2Macro]

don't like. Why are you raising the flop? I'd probably just fold because a lot of the 11/9 bots literally only donk sets here. For that reason I really don't like the turn either, esp because TT/JJ also make up a lot of the rest of his range and may not fold turn. Don't like river since you're trying to make a brainless nit fold a big hand when your range is potentially very wide and is most definitely not limited to flushes.

I raise because I have tons of good barrel cards and also holding a 2 blocks possible set combo's he could have. If I had Ah2h I'd probably fold but since I also block the nut flush draw I think the chances of me getting 3bet on the flop are a bit less and I also have the chance of picking up good equity on the turn.

this is kind of an after-the-fact thing..but I talked with a 100nl reg about this hand and he pointed out that this particular villain will lead out with weak marginal hands that he feels he can't c/c. I didn't know this at the time but I have noticed a lot of players like this lead in similar spots with like 77 because they don't want to c/c and face 2-3 barrels. It's sort of meh because I didn't have this read at the time but I figure since he can only have 7 combo's of sets he barely needs to be doing it with anything worse for me to make a move and also I imagine he's going to play his hand pretty face up and just try to get it in on the flop with a set? So when he calls I will be able to pick reasonable turn cards to barrel.

As for the river I'm not sure I like it at all because he'd probably play a worse flush draw the same way and the worse flush just got there. Even though we block the nut flush I doubt this type of player would be able to lay down a worse flush, nor would I expect anyone to. Also, it's likely that if he did have a weak made hand he'd just fold the turn...so his range is pretty strong at this point and bombing the river becomes closer to suicide than a good play.

[badgers]

Well I defintely think 99/33/(22) are in his range since your raise is gonna be perceived as pure air a lot of the time. On the turn I still think he can have QJcc/QTcc/JTcc/T8cc depending on how wide he calls preflop but it was a minraise so it's not unreasonable to put all that in his range. I still think this is JJ a lot too, although on the turn I guess you can fold out TT/weak FDs.

I just don't really like the flop raise, you're going to have enough hands with better equity in your range here and if you think he's FOS enough that you can profitably raise the flop you can just call (obviously this is bad given the read you acquired after the hand). River bet is ok I guess but I don't really know what you're trying to fold out and it's such an obvious barrel card that I wouldn't rule out some sort of hero call with TT or something depending on whether he's as tight post as pre.

[Micro2Macro]

yeah fortunately nits are really bad and have super unbalanced checking ranges on the river so he snap pot into me and i just folded in the real hand history. (I think if we actually knew and had this read we could shove if he checks).

if he was good he'd check a flush to me.

am I wrong here ^ ?

[badgers]

yeah i agree with everything in last post

[Renton]

I don't see a real reason for overbetting the pot, and I actually think he's more likely to fold a bet of half of whats left. I think he gives you more credit for made hands other than flushes for that size, where I think he only gives you flushes when you go all in like this.

I probably would just call the flop. He's betting 3 into 5, I don't think it's time to turn into a bluff quite yet, and there are so many good turns for you so I think frankly that its a huge waste.

[Micro2Macro]

I don't see a real reason for overbetting the pot, and I actually think he's more likely to fold a bet of half of whats left. I think he gives you more credit for made hands other than flushes for that size, where I think he only gives you flushes when you go all in like this.

I probably would just call the flop. He's betting 3 into 5, I don't think it's time to turn into a bluff quite yet, and there are so many good turns for you so I think frankly that its a huge waste.

thanks for the input. I guess lots of good turn cards for me makes calling pretty preferable/can rep wider range of hands of value for if/when I decide to bluff.