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100NL 77, flopped set, turn action

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  1. #1

    Default 100NL 77, flopped set, turn action

    Villain is 15/9, 3bet 3.7% and is a reg.

    He's setting it up for an easy shove on the river, which I can't call unless I fill up, which I'd have to donk and he might not call. I have about 22% to fill up and he's giving me 4:1 to fill up. I beat nothing, right? Standard fold? Apologies if it is, weak tight tendencies are strong in me.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($390.50)
    BB ($101.50)
    Hero (UTG) ($155.15)
    UTG+1 ($100)
    MP1 ($72.85)
    MP2 ($161.70)
    MP3 ($100)
    CO ($184.30)
    Button ($102.65)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7
    Hero bets $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, Button calls $3, 2 folds

    Flop: ($13.50) 10, 6, 7 (4 players)
    Hero bets $11, 1 fold, CO calls $11, 1 fold

    Turn: ($35.50) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $27, CO raises to $70
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    call. jam if you boat. c/f if you dont. he's giving you near direct odds and he doesn't have to call the river jam all to often to make this profitable

    ?wut
  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bbickes View Post
    call. jam if you boat. c/f if you dont.
    ^ this, and not even close cos of villain's sizing
  4. #4
    You really think he's calling a river where the board pairs often enough? Its not like this reg is great but who would call that? I'm never bluffing.
  5. #5
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    People hate to fold big hands. Theres even a theorem about it.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  6. #6
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gobbatino View Post
    You really think he's calling a river where the board pairs often enough? Its not like this reg is great but who would call that? I'm never bluffing.
    This hand is not about polarizing your range with this sort of hand. It's about having sexy pot odds and not requiring much implied odds to make this call profitable.
    Last edited by BankItDrew; 11-02-2010 at 02:16 AM.
  7. #7
    he's only gotta decide you floated a hand like Acx/straight+flush combo draw that you're turning into a bluff on the river 10% of the time for call turn/shove board pairing rivers to be clearly profitable. i think he definitely calls at least 10% of the time with King/Ace high flushes, which make up a lot of his range
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

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