100nl - 3bet pot vs random halp

[Micro2Macro]

52/17 or something over just a few hands

river is somewhat of a gay card...can I really value shove here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($102.05)
Button ($259.65)
Hero (SB) ($100)
BB ($100)
UTG ($68.15)
UTG+1 ($129.05)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($70.60)
MP3 ($142.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $2, 5 folds, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $7

Flop: ($19) 7, Q, J (2 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG+1 calls $15

Turn: ($49) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $26, UTG+1 calls $26

River: ($101) K (2 players)
Hero?

I have like 55 or so behind fwiw

[Jason]

What's his WTSD%? I find that's a pretty helpful stat for spots like this. If it's 40% or higher, then I'd be more apt to want to shove than if it's 20% or less. And, a shove at this point is just a 1/2 pot value bet. Generally speaking, I think it's a pretty miserable board and would be happy to get to showdown without putting any more money in the pot. The only hand you beat that makes a lot of sense is AK, but you have TWO aces which makes it much less likely but he probably WOULD call that. What hand that's not JJ-AA would raise UTG and keep calling bets on that board keeping in mind that him having an ace is statistically unlikely? It's a pretty bad spot too because I'd hate to check and allow him to bet. Ugh ... weak blocking bet ftw?

I probably check and hate myself for having to fold if he shoves. I don't see what he's calling that we beat if we shove aside from AK which is a small part of his POSSIBLE range. All sets, two pairs, and straights are a very possible for a villain who plays 1/2 of his hands ... and this hand in particular in position with a hero who keeps betting for him.

[Im_new]

damn, that K sux.

I'm thinking c/c > shove > c/f, but I can't justify this mathematically. (I'm learning, I'm learning.)

I don't think any sets are in his range after he only called the turn given texture.

If he views you as aggressive, I'd say he's calling the turn with 9T (and maybe KK) only. He's probably setting up to shove into your check/call your shove on river. (Of course, that's if you think he'll call your 3b with 9T in position? Have you been 3betting a bunch since he showed up?).

Sets and two pairs raise turn given texture, I hope.

[Micro2Macro]

he's played like 10 hands or something so far

I guess c/c isn't terrible given he could have something really retarded or a missed flush

:S

[rpm]

why so small on the turn, M? were you bet/folding?

[caddie444]

c/c is likely ideal since it gives him an opportunity to bluff clubs and he may 'v-bet' any AK, Kc10c. I wouldn't put it past him to have like 10-10 or 99 thinking lol you have AK... but I think it's safe to say he won't bet if you check with these hands.

I def don't like a weak blocker bet, what are we gonna bet $20 then fold??

[oskar]

why so small on the turn, M? were you bet/folding?

Just enough to set up an easy river shove. No point in betting more.



I still shove the river. You're not seriously expecting a random loose passive donk to bluffshove a missed draw. He'll prolly still call with Qx, KT, K9, and I think that's > his 2 pair range. Not by a whole lot, but I think it's enough. I wouldn't even completely discount 74o from his stackoff range.

[Deanglow]

There is no river card I wouldn't shove

[Jason]

There is no river card I wouldn't shove

What range of cards that we beat do you expect him to call with? What range of cards that he beats us do you expect him to fold?

[Micro2Macro]

after sleeping on this one I recall times where JTs has paid me off in the same spot.

he seems like a similar character.

I think the K makes it really close though but it's tough to say what he can show up with at this point.

[ZwiFT]

ez shove he will call you with the nuts and AJ, AQ, AK, 99-TT, one paird draws and those rape the nut range

[jessyj]

No chance I'm missing out on value here from somebody who will likely call Qx, some Jx, and KT/K9/AK. We'll be beat sometimes but I think he'll call worse > 50% of the time.