AK vs unknown TAG in 3-bet pot.

[Carroters]

Villain is 21/14 over 30 hands. I haven't 3 bet him yet; no history.

Flop: The way I played it feels kind of gross. On board like A64 I'd happily just bet a decent amount on the flop and shove the turn. Here though I felt I was getting called by 0 better hands except rarely AJ, but this is a bit thin since we don't know if he's calling the 3 bet this lightly. I decided to bet smaller to ensure I don't fold out his Qs and maybe get called by hands like JJ KQ etc.

When he raises I feel like his range is pretty much AQ, QQ and maybe some bluffs. Given this price, my weak looking bet, and being IP I felt flatting was standard given his range is very likely polarized.

Turn: Now I really feel like he has AQ a ton and not a whole lot else. He can't reasonably expect me to fold much to this bet given lol pot odds etc, so I fold. I actually think the turn is an easy fold as played because I just can't put him on a worse hand. I'm almost certain any bluffs he's continuing are just shipping the turn.

If I call the turn I have to call the river, so this isn't a lol pot odds calls when he's shoving the river all the time, it's basically my decision for the rest of my stack.

Feels gross though.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($51.25)
Button ($62.25)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($87.35)
UTG ($115.65)
MP ($51)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
1 fold, MP bets $2, Hero raises $6.25, 3 folds, MP calls $4.25

Flop: ($13.25) 8, Q, A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $7, MP raises $15, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($43.25) 4 (2 players)
MP bets $12.50, Hero folds

Total pot: $43.25

[Dex]

I agree that the turn is making a decision to play for stacks, and a decision on how good we are and how often vs villain's range. But what is the flop, in the sense that what do we think villain will actually do on the turn once we flat? I agree that flatting has to be ideal, but are we calling just to hope he gives up if we're pretty much always going to fold to a bet? Are we happier to see a bigger bet?

One thing that I am curious about is given the board texture we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value from worse aces, JJ, TT or a random KK. So is check back flop, call/bet turn+river better than call/bet flop, check turn, bet river? Bet bet bet vs an average TAG on AQx in a 3bet pot just seems better for their winrate than ours.

[Carroters]

I agree that the turn is making a decision to play for stacks, and a decision on how good we are and how often vs villain's range. But what is the flop, in the sense that what do we think villain will actually do on the turn once we flat? I agree that flatting has to be ideal, but are we calling just to hope he gives up if we're pretty much always going to fold to a bet? Are we happier to see a bigger bet?

One thing that I am curious about is given the board texture we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value from worse aces, JJ, TT or a random KK. So is check back flop, call/bet turn+river better than call/bet flop, check turn, bet river? Bet bet bet vs an average TAG on AQx in a 3bet pot just seems better for their winrate than ours.

I agree that checking the flop looks like it could be better since we can induce bets from a wider range of hands than are calling multiple streets and agree that we're not getting it in over 2 or 3 streets profitably. However, I think a weak looking c-bet is a good way to get his weakest sd value hands and pairs to put money in since this is a flop I'm c-betting all my air on. I think that once I check the flop it actually looks more like I have some sort of Ace/decent showdown value so when I bet on a later street it looks like it's always for value; but yeah I have no idea if he percieves it this way, I just think most TAGs will since they themsevles will always c-bet all their air on this board.

I'm defintiely way more likely to call a shove on the turn than I am this given the size of the pot and what I percieved his flop c/r range to be like. In a nutshell, if his range for c/r the flop is nuts and air then he takes all the bluffs out by betting this small, we have to fold. Simple as that. I guess it's mainly the flop I'm unsure about. As played I think the turn is a snap fold to this sizing.

[Dex]

I agree turn is a fold for the reasons you gave. Was just curious as to what sort of action you'd continue against, and I was thinking the same.

I think what you're trying to accomplish with your smallish cbet is interesting, it is ultimately a wa/wb situation and the more money we can make from the portion we're way ahead of the better. You may make someone spaz raise sometimes, but they'd never bet the turn like that. I also agree a thinking player would expect us to cbet strong hands/air and check back hands with showdown value. But I guess my thinking is that if we're only good for two streets of value, we might as well bet the two closest to showdown to convince villain into coming along.

I like your thinking though and if you folded the turn nh. I'm just not giving someone credit for being able to bluff the turn like that.

[Carroters]

I like your thinking though and if you folded the turn nh. I'm just not giving someone credit for being able to bluff the turn like that.

Yeah, I think bluffing this turn this small vs an unknown at 50NL is suicidal

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

we just don't fold AK that flops TPTK 100bb deep in a 3bet pot to an unknown. that's what im saying

[Carroters]

we just don't fold AK that flops TPTK 100bb deep in a 3bet pot to an unknown. that's what im saying

yay for blanket statements that render actually thinking about your opponents range irrelevant.

[shakesss]

I would either fold flop or as played call turn with the intention of calling a lot of rivers. I really dont like calling and folding turn coz he is gonna continue close to 100% of the time so the flop call would make no sense if we were planning on folding. I think calling down is better than shoving coz if he is spazzing with something weaker than you get value from that. If i am against a TAG i would check flop and try to get to showdown because the Q smacks his oop 3b calling range.

[Carroters]

I would either fold flop or as played call turn with the intention of calling a lot of rivers. I really dont like calling and folding turn coz he is gonna continue close to 100% of the time so the flop call would make no sense if we were planning on folding. I think calling down is better than shoving coz if he is spazzing with something weaker than you get value from that. If i am against a TAG i would check flop and try to get to showdown because the Q smacks his oop 3b calling range.

Do you actually think he is ever bluffing with this sizing?

[Dex]

Do you actually think he is ever bluffing with this sizing?

Villain is leaving himself $17.25 going to the river which if we call will be a $68.25 pot. So he would have 25% of the pot left behind. If he can't shove this amount on the river as a bluff without expecting to be called, then he wouldn't be bluffing this small on the turn unless he sucks and plans to give up on the river. We don't have a read that he's that lolbad. Pretty sure if he has a hand like AJ that he's overvaluing after we cbet smallish, he wouldn't be betting it that small on the turn.

[shakesss]

I dont think he is bluffing often at all in this spot, but if he has AQ or QQ its a cooler. I just find it really hard to get away from this spot after having put so much money in on such a favorable board. At 50nl i have seen a lot of ppl spaz out in 3b pots, and since you did call flop, and this is a pretty unusual way to play top two or a set i would call down and hope hes valuetowning or spazzing with something.

[gabe]

makes sense to me

[Dragon Slayer]

Flop kinda sucks, Im sure I call anyway knowing Im prob beat and fold Turn.