couple of hands 600nl

[meeloche]

Hand #1

Villain is an ok reg. At 6 max he plays looser than most tag's but I'd still call him a tag. We haven't been playing hu long as we're just trying to start 6 max games.

He has a high 4 bet percent and I don't think he's liable to slowplay a big hand pre that often.

What's the best river line here, Shoving as a bluff or c/f?

No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($633)
Hero (BB) ($661)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 4
SB bets $9, Hero raises $42, SB calls $36

Flop: ($96) A, 10, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $60, SB calls $60

Turn: ($216) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $138, SB calls $138

River: ($492) K (2 players)
Hero? (~400 left)

Hand #2

Villain is your average tag. I haven't played with him that much and we don't have any history.

Is this just an easy bet if so how do you size it? I don't expect him to call with Kx all that often or turn it into a bluff if I check fwiw.

No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($690)
Hero (SB) ($630)
BB ($922.20)
UTG ($642.30)
MP ($498)
CO ($1380.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, A
4 folds, Hero bets $18, BB calls $15

Flop: ($42) 6, A, K (2 players)
Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

Turn: ($102) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $72, BB calls $72

River: ($246) 3 (2 players)
Hero?

[Alexos]

check 1
c/shove 2 (c/c if ure a nit)

[Renton]

Don't have strong opinion either way about hand one, i just wanted to mention that I believe k4s to be one of the worst possible 3bet hands vs a minraise button open hu.

As for hand 2, is it just super level one 2006 that I check the turn here?

[gabe]

Don't have strong opinion either way about hand one, i just wanted to mention that I believe k4s to be one of the worst possible 3bet hands vs a minraise button open hu.

As for hand 2, is it just super level one 2006 that I check the turn here?

you are way wrong about k4s, and why would you check the turn in hand 2?? tons of worse hands call bets and you are rarely behind, also its good for your barreling range to have AT in there

[pocketfours]

1. shove

2. c/shove

[IowaSkinsFan]

1: c/f
2: Overbet slightly

[Renton]

you are rarely behind, also its good for your barreling range to have AT in there

Yeah I thought of this, but I thought there could still be merit to checking because betting shuts a lot of his range down (i.e. all his floats/gutters that are def betting). Also obv checking turn avoids the weird river situation where betting over-represents our hand and check folding is equally tough.


As far as 3betting K4s, I just think it is bad firstly because its taking a hand that is solidly in the realm of being able to call for a profit and turning into 'air'. But mostly I think it is bad because I believe 3-betting oop with deep stacks (minraise simulates deep stacks)is not a very effective strategy with weak hands.

[Dragon Slayer]

1: c/f
2: Overbet slightly

Why overbet ?

[Luke999]

Shove hand 1.
C/C hand 2.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Why overbet ?

Fold out the splits

[pocketfours]

LOL nobody takes same line on both hands

[Dex]

Until now

Hand 1 - Check because I don't really expect to be bluffed when villain likely has a lot of showdown value vs our river checking range. It's hard to see villain's range in this spot being better two pairs that we'd want/need to bluff out.

Hand 2 - If every ace splits with us apart from AK, A6 and A3, which we can potentially discount, we lose to 66 which we can discount somewhat for being flatted 2 streets, we beat passive flush draws that don't have showdown value, and your read is we won't get value from Kx, I likey the check/shove. Overbetting is a valid choice but I prefer check/shove.

[ATOTHEC101]

Ones close, I don't think shoving is a bluff, def for value, I'd probably jam if he's suspicious.

Two I'd c/r all in, against better players I'd just overbet big.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I dont understand all these c/ring all in comments on this hand

[Luke999]

edit: didn't see the board texture, i understand C/R now

[Alexos]

I dont understand all these c/ring all in comments on this hand

folding out splits sometimes, but also lets him bluffs FDs.

although your line makes him fold splits more often.

[pocketfours]

Those who want to c/f #1 because of two combos are smoking some bad weed. Where is my friend the griffo when I need him???

WP Luke.

[Alexos]

Those who want to shove k4s for value are smoking some solid weed

fyp

[pocketfours]

fyp

bzoink

[pocketfours]

The EV of shoving is the same whether you do it for the values of the valuetowns or for any other reason.

[griffey24]

Those who want to c/f #1 because of two combos are smoking some bad weed. Where is my friend the griffo when I need him???

WP Luke.

Why do you think he only has two combos in hand 1? Even I'd c/f this! Though I'd like to balance c/f this with actually checking some J's here.

The better question is what hands do you think he's bluffing? The only bluff hands that make sense are Ax bad kicker and 9T or something.

I think he has more than two combos though. 3 combos of QJss, 3 combos of AJss, he might even have KJ sometimes and JTss sometimes. Not to mention the occasional value jam with AQ since he thinks we never have Jx.

[nutsinho]

1- c/f
2- overbet

i dont think either is very close

[meeloche]

I was never considering shoving for value in hand 1 since that seems insane to me. I certainly don't have the image for that and I'd never expect him to call with worse. I wasn't sure how much of his range was folding if I shoved so I checked. he ended up having KQ.

I didn't even think about over betting in 2 which makes me glad I posted this hand.

[pocketfours]

There is five hundred dollars in the pot. Why are we giving it to him again?

All I'm saying is that c/f here vs me is just handing me the pot on a silver platter. Maybe it's fine against some weak reg, whatever. Or maybe I just play bad?

[griffey24]

I didn't even think about over betting in 2 which makes me glad I posted this hand.

This surprises me, I feel like I over-bet here almost always. Our hand doesn't have much value EXCEPT for getting him off a chop.

If he's really aggro though, I kind of like the c/bomb line to get him to bluff spades.

[pocketfours]

Why do you think he only has two combos in hand 1?

Which two combos am I talking about? Anyone?

[gabe]

1- c/f
2- overbet

i dont think either is very close

aw cmon shoving hand 1 cant be so bad thats its not close to c/f

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Hand 1 c/f

hand 2 pot or something that could possibly get him to call with something worse. I feel like overshove is the only way you get a split to fold.

[AnTman_69]

Do u guys ever overbet for value in hand 2? Does balance not matter so much on this particular board.

[griffey24]

Do u guys ever overbet for value in hand 2? Does balance not matter so much on this particular board.

How is overbetting with AT here not for value, when he never has AK or a 3?

Either he calls and we chop or he folds and we win what would have been a chop. Seems like value to me.

[Alexos]

I don't get why we would want to shove hand 1, at all. When I think of his range, there are a bunch of Jx combos, a bunch of better 2pr hands that might or might not fold, and some marginal hands (Ax,QT, etc.) that he'll prob check behind on river that we beat, but never calls a shove with.

I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx, or if he calls a shove with worse. I don't think either is true from an average TAG.

[gabe]

"I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx"

yea....thats the point because most of the things that he has better than Jx aren't that good relative to our perceived bet bet shove range

[pocketfours]

Does this TAG call 4x 3bet with A9s-A2s?

[Alexos]

"I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx"

yea....thats the point because most of the things that he has better than Jx aren't that good relative to our perceived bet bet shove range

yea thats true but im just not certain ppl will actually fold those (2-3 ppl in this thread actually shove for value here?), and AJ/TJ/QJ/KJ discount them as much as you'd like you still get alot of combos.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

"I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx"

yea....thats the point because most of the things that he has better than Jx aren't that good relative to our perceived bet bet shove range

Wait you're saying shove as a bluff?

[gabe]

ya. if hes folding KQ i think shoving is better than checking. is he calling KQ though ??? thats the question

[meeloche]

Does this TAG call 4x 3bet with A9s-A2s?

I don't think so.

[pocketfours]

Well that pretty much leaves QTdd and QTcc the only two hands that we beat that will probably not bet if we check. And does he even call with those pre is uncertain.

[IowaSkinsFan]

ya. if hes folding KQ i think shoving is better than checking. is he calling KQ though ??? thats the question

I disagree with this, even if he is folding KQ there seem to be a lot of J's he'd play exactly this way, AJ/QJ/JT, one he may play this way JJ, and very few hands otherwise (KQ/KT, I suppose MAYBE AK, and I really wouldnt think someone would play AA/QQ/QT/AQ/AT this way, I think they would shove the turn). There are more combos of the first 3 than the last 2 as well. I'm not sure this is good enough to want to bluff even if we have a large certainty he will fold less than Jx.

[Ravageur]

Late to the thread, but count me in the c/fold 1, bet big hand 2 camp. In hand 2 I don't really think he's bluffing flush draws all that much on such a dry board, people seem to just be giving up with them a lot in the past year, but maybe that's caus i'm such a station so they no longer bluff me.

For hand 1, we need to weight the times he has AJ/KJ/QJ to the times he folds KQ/Q10/A10 (i think he folds the first two maybe but not the 3rd). I can't imagine ever getting called by worse so we can discount value shoving.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Shoving k4 and getting called would have insanely awesome metagame too. hmmm

[gabe]

another reason not to check is if he turns a hand into a bluff then we make a huuuge mistake

"i can't imagine ever getting called by worse so we can discount value shoving."

whats the worst hand we can shove and get called by worse? knowing that threshold can give us a good enough range of hands where we can count combos and do some math

[pocketfours]

It's a funny spot because I would rather shove TTT/444 for value than AAA. With AAA I think c/c is probably best, hoping he turns weaker hands into bluffs.

I feel like AK is the worst hand i would shove for value, but even that might be a c/f?

[Mr. Diamond]

1 - c/f

2 - c/shove

[IowaSkinsFan]

It's a funny spot because I would rather shove TTT/444 for value than AAA. With AAA I think c/c is probably best, hoping he turns weaker hands into bluffs.

Imo gabe and you are over thinking this hand. To feel like when we check that we are going to have mades hands turned into bluffs at all, but so much that we are going to want to check call with AA, is simply misreading what 99.9% of opponent will do here.

If we shove, how much do we actually have a J? Very, very little. Does this mean opp is going to call with less than a Jack? Its certainly a factor in favor of us giving some positive % to the possibility. It also means there are almost know range value considerations here, meaning this bluff has to work in a vacuum for it to be +EV, compared to other bluffs with wide value ranges where this doesn't necessarily have to be the case.

I'm all down for doing thin bluffs when there are tons of metagame and range considerations, but not when its vacuum like this and the math on whether the vacuum bluff is good even in a perfect scenario for our bluff seems close.

[gabe]

as a reminder, i never said i thought shoving was the best play.

a few things:
-its OK that we don't actually have a jack. we have AQ+ in our range and he doesnt.
-from the description of the player i would guess hes the type that could turn a3 or t9ss into a bluff on the river.
-we aren't going to win that often when we check (and we might even lose the pot if we have the best hand because of the last point)

if hes calling with KQ is he calling with a9? seems like he should call both or fold both, right?

[gabe]

I don't think so.

i would bet he definitely does call Axs pre. it's HU, it's only 8bb and u said hes slightly looser than avg

[pocketfours]

Here's a rough estimation of combos and best action against that hand:

1x TJss shove
1x 45ss shove (discounted)
3x A2s shove
3x A3s shove
3x A5s shove
3x A6s shove
3x A7s shove
3x A8s shove
3x A9s shove
2x QTs shove

2x A4s close
6x KQ close

3x QJs c/f
12x AJ c/f
3x TJs c/f

2x KJs c/f (discounted)
9x AQ c/f (discounted)
3x 44 c/f (discounted)
3x TT c/f (discounted)
9x AT c/f (discounted)

EV of shoving against the c/f hands is -$400. EV of shoving against the rest is some positive number which is fairly hard to quantify.

EV of shoving against any weaker hand he turns into a bluff when we check is $492.

EV of shoving against a weaker hand is $892 if villain calls (somewhat unlikely).

Simply too much uncertainty involving this hand to finalize the math. Does he flat Axs pre? Does he ever call with worse? Does he fold A4s/KQ to a shove? Does he shove the turn with two pair? Does he turn top pair into a bluff?

As an example we can assume that I am villain and do the math. I would flat Axs pre, I would also turn ALL one pair hands into bluffs when checked to and I would fold both A4s and KQ to a river shove. I would also not slowplay the turn.

So against me c/f is only going to win if I'm holding exactly QTcc or QTdd.

EV of shoving: 31x$492 - 28x$400 / 59 = $4052 / 59 = $68
EV of c/f = 57x$0 + 2x$492 / 59 = $984 / 59 = $16

Shoving wins against me, but did I misplay the hand?

I still don't think it's an easy decision and it's an interesting hand for sure.

[meeloche]

very interesting analysis p4's thanks for doing that.

[gabe]

yea glad you did that. what do you guys think now

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I completely disagree that the player described is bluffing when he checks, ever

[nutsinho]

p4s why on earth wouldnt you almost ALWAYS slowplay the turn

[pocketfours]

p4s why on earth wouldnt you almost ALWAYS slowplay the turn

To be honest I said that because I thought it sounded believable and it made the math a lot easier. It also nicely skewed the results in favor of shoving, which I was trying to prove isn't NECESSARILY braindead like you were saying :P

But your opinion was obviously correct, as it almost always seems to be :/

[IowaSkinsFan]

Isolating the factor that we would want to shove instead of c/f to prevent us from being bluffed from a wide range of made hands or missed fds being turned into bluffs: I'd never, ever give someone credit who wasnt a very very high caliber of player for doing this enough for me to care. It takes a very high level of logic, hand reading, and balls to throw out a bluff here. Personally, I like checking when I'm not going to get bluffed.

[gabe]

even if you ignore that they still could be folding enough hands to make it better

[pocketfours]

Yeah, let's not give up yet! We can still do the math on how many combos a not-slowplaying villain needs to call river with to make shoving indifferent and see which hands he needs to fold:

EV(c/f) = EV(shove)
2*$492 / 85 = ((85-x)*$492 - x*$400) / 85
2*$492 = 85*$492-x*$492 - x*$400
x*$492 + x*$400 = 85*$492 - 2*$492
x*$492 + x*$400 = $42804
x = $42804 / $892 = 48 combos.

If he calls with less than 48 combos then shoving will be best. There's 18 combos of the nuts and 26 combos of slowplayed hands for a total of 44. So it really seems that even if I do slowplay always, shoving is still going to be better against me if I fold A4 and KQ like I said. Add some chance of me not calling with AT and some chance of me not slowplaying the turn and we are more comfortably in shove territory.

So we aren't saying that c/f isn't better against this villain, but that shoving is a perfectly viable play. How ya like them apples?

[gabe]

so what ended up happening in these hands

[meeloche]

I checked the k4 and he checked behind KQ. So I guess i kinda wished I shoved to see if he'd be calling with that. Not really sure if he would tbh.

[griffey24]

Nice analysis P4's, I'll have to think about this some more.