QQ UTG in 3 bet pot on weird river.

[Carroters]

Villain is 38/26 over 40 hands and has 3-bet once so far in the SB. I know nothing else about him.

Flop seems standard and raising or folding both look bad.

Betting the turn also looks meh since I don't know if he 3 bets JJ and TT pre and he'll fold everything else that isn't an A.

I bet the river for value and then he shovels. Now I don't ever expect this to be a bluff, there's just nothing he gives up with on the turn then decides to maniac bluff the river with vs my strong range. So his range is like JJ (maybe) KK and Kx.

Can I assume he's 3 betting enough stuff like KJ, KT here to fold. It's not certain he even raises JJ.

Board: Jh Kc Ts Qs Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { KK, JJ, KJs+, KJo+ }


No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($130.10)
MP ($158.55)
CO ($104.50)
Button ($100)
SB ($115.80)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $4, MP raises $14, 4 folds, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($29.50) J, K, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($53.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($53.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $38, MP raises $132.55 (All-In), Hero?

[bikes]

Not folding against someone who i dont know that much about when he has seemly fishy stats and can be doing something retarded with an A or valueshoving worse. I also think youre prolly giving him too much credit to think he knows your range is strong.

[Santo2True]

i'm folding cause there's just to many hands that beat us. as sick as that sounds this board is gross and i hate it. i dunno why i'm such a nit... =/

[sven00100]

So what makes sense here based on his line? AQ maybe? AK, KQ, KJ, JJ, TT, KK... Honestly JJ and TT are relieved to see this river card if they're not putting you on a tight range, possibly AA... we have what? 66.10 behind, with a total pot (if you call) of 261.60? 66.10/261.60 = 25.27% EV needed to call.. versus this range:

Board: Jh Kc Ts Qs Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 24 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 15 0.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, AQs+, KTs+, AQo+, KTo+ }

Okay, so lets remove the less likely holdings..
AA and AQ - both probably bet the turn when checked to for one.. let's also take out AK

Board: Jh Kc Ts Qs Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.571% 28.57% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 71.429% 71.43% 00.00% 15 0.00 { KK, JJ-TT, KTs+, KTo+ }

Still a call.. Call IMO

[Santo2True]

to me he never has an A. he never check turn with an A and only checks turn when he thinks WE have an Ace. To me the river woke him up and he was no longer affraid of the straight, which tells me he now has a boat. JJ, TT, KJ, KQ, KT<--maybe bottom of his range..
The line looks like Kx to me as the flop bet seems like a K bet, turn is like a scare card for him and then K says ok my boat is good

But I think either way a call or fold are so close, i just don't like the price on the river. but again, i'm too tight

[Santo2True]

ps.. at the table, playing the hand.. i probably call...



no wait, i would deff call and hope he doesn't have what i think he does and then i post the hand here

[griffey24]

Any stats on his 3betting?

Is he really 3betting hands like KJ/KT vs an utg open? I think we can discount this, unless you have reads that he 3bets this kind of merged range vs ep raisers IP. I also discount these hands somewhat after his mega small sizing on the flop.

I can see someone playing AA like this, assuming that they have all the aces in the deck so its not likely you'll call turn but might bluff river. Might even be trying to take you off what he thinks is a chop, given your river sizing doesn't look THAT boatish.

I can't imagine folding this ever.

[d0zer]

^wat griffey said.

also why are you not putting TT in yer stove range, only JJ? Like the thought of any 100NL random not value shoving TT here does not compute.

Also if he's not a reg, there's a good enough chance he's retarded and slowplayed an A on turn and decided to shove it either for drooler value or to block a chop or w/e.

There's just not enough that beats you to fold this to almost anyone.

[sven00100]

^wat griffey said.

also why are you not putting TT in yer stove range, only JJ? Like the thought of any 100NL random not value shoving TT here does not compute.

Also if he's not a reg, there's a good enough chance he's retarded and slowplayed an A on turn and decided to shove it either for drooler value or to block a chop or w/e.

There's just not enough that beats you to fold this to almost anyone.

I meant to address this in my post.. 38/26 with position might be 3-betting KJs, KQ, KTs - without knowing I made this assumption... I basically made my range in my calculations wide enough that it made sense POST-FLOP regardless if pre made perfect sense...though depending on his 3b percentage this could well make sense. But even with a wider (stronger) range that beats us than is likely we still have pos EV with call vs. a fold.. As we remove KJo KTo, KTs, etc. the odds just get better.. I don't see laying this down ever with the information provided.

[Carroters]

From his stats and his lack of open limping etc, I sort of thought he was more likely s reg or LAG that was running good or jus being very active over my small sample. Dozer - for that reason I think JJ is way more likely to be 3 bet preflop and TT flatted. My range is pretty much a worst case scenario and I doubt actualy expect him to have this many combos of Kx.

I also don't ever think we see Ax here often enough to even consider it. It'd just be so retarded to shove it and I think even most fish will just call and realise their. hand isn't all that special on this river.

[d0zer]

Dozer - for that reason I think JJ is way more likely to be 3 bet preflop and TT flatted. My range is pretty much a worst case scenario and I doubt actualy expect him to have this many combos of Kx.

I also don't ever think we see Ax here often enough to even consider it. It'd just be so retarded to shove it and I think even most fish will just call and realise their. hand isn't all that special on this river.

I rly don't think that most people are going to be way more likely to 3b JJ than TT. I think most villains are either going to be flatting both because it's the standard thing to do against an UTG open or they're mindless laggtards that just 3b everything cuz they were told that calling preflop sucks or some shit.

And yeah an ace doesn't do this with a massive frequency, but I tend to assume that relative unknowns that appear relatively aggressive have a higher retard-spazzout frequency than your average passive feesh or tag reg.

[Dragon Slayer]

Never folding, but that doesn't mean that we are ahead

[Toadstool]

I'd only call cos I think an unknown would generally play worse FH like this for value.