3-betting and fold equity in FR NLHE

[Muzzard]

My first effort at a decent FR strat post, spoons coaching has done me good.

So lets say in LP/MP we have a villain who opens the betting with a range:
22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (for those of you who like graphical representations I included pokerstove below, hands included in the range are yellow)



What range of hands does the typical tag continue with here?
Probably something along the lines of JJ+,AKs,AKo



Lets look at the total combinations in his opening range:
Each pair has 6 combination: 13x6
Each suited hand has 4 combinations: 10x4
Each offsuit hand has 12 combinations: 10x12

=238 combinations

Now lets look at the total combinations of his continuing range to 3bet:
Pairs: 4x6
Offsuit: 1x12
Suited 1x4

=40 combinations

So (238-40/238)*100= 83.2%
We have A LOT of fold equity as he is folding 83.2% of his range to our 3bets

Lets look at the maths behind the actual 3bet and how often he needs to fold to make it a break even play preflop. He raises 4bbs, we reraise to 12bbs total it folds round to him, so we have 1.5bb in dead money

12/(4+12+1.5) as a percentage = 68.5%

We risk 12 to win 5.5, to make this a breakeven play we only need villain to be folding 68.5% and given the range above we know that he is folding 83.2% if his oopening range is anywhere near correct for MP/LP raise.

Ok, so what range should we be 3betting with?
Obviously we can 3bet with our value range, which as default should be QQ+, AKo, AKs - but obviously we can 3bet a lot wider range as he folds too much and we can exploit this. Good hands to 3bet with are ones which contain blockers, such as any A, K, Q, making it less likely he has a big pocket pair as it leaves les combinations in the deck. If we do get called preflop, we also want to chose hands that have added equity/hidden value postflop, such as connectors and suited hands.

Something llike this might be a good place to start:
QQ+,AKs,A9s-A2s,KTs-K6s,QTs-Q8s,J7s+,AKo,A9o-A2o



You can add/remove hands as you see fit

OK, so lets break down our range into a value range A and a bluffing range B

Our A range includes
3pairs, 1suited hand and 1 offsuit hand = 34combinations

Our B range includes
8offsuit hands and 20suited hands = 176 combinations

A+B= 210
%bluff range= (176/210)*100= 83%

Now lets say villain is good and adjusts to 4bet bluffing us, lets do the math too see how often we need fold to make it profitable for him. He opens 4bb, we 3bet 12bb he 4bets 32bb

So he's betting 28, (that's 32 minus original raise of 4) to win our 17.5.
28/(28+17.5) = 61.5%

If he makes this adjustment he's going to be owning us, as we are bluffing 83% of the time when we 3bet. All we'll need to do is then reduce our 3bet bluffing range below 61.5% and we are unexploitable against 4bet bluffs

[Keilah]

What about if he adjusts by 4betting, we take 15% of our bluff range and start shoving it? The suited aces do decently against QQ+, AK.

Good post. I did the exact same maths a couple months ago, maybe I should have posted it too =)

[Muzzard]

What about if he adjusts by 4betting, we take 15% of our bluff range and start shoving it? The suited aces do decently against QQ+, AK.

Good post. I did the exact same maths a couple months ago, maybe I should have posted it too =)

If we reduce our 4bet bluffing range to less than the 61.5% we don't really need to 5bet bluff. We are unexploitable anyway to his 4bet bluffs based upon the math and he's going to be running into QQ+/AK 38.5% of the time which we woudl be able to 5bet shove profitably anyway when it reaches this stage.

[daven]

anyone who hasn't already studied this should. and probably won't.
nh.

[Keilah]

What about if he adjusts by 4betting, we take 15% of our bluff range and start shoving it? The suited aces do decently against QQ+, AK.

Good post. I did the exact same maths a couple months ago, maybe I should have posted it too =)

If we reduce our 4bet bluffing range to less than the 61.5% we don't really need to 5bet bluff. We are unexploitable anyway to his 4bet bluffs based upon the math and he's going to be running into QQ+/AK 38.5% of the time which we woudl be able to 5bet shove profitably anyway when it reaches this stage.

Yeah, but my way's more FUN.

[JinxT4]

He raises 4bbs, we reraise to 12bbs total it folds round to him

If you 3b from 4bbs to 12bbs, doesn't he have odds to setmine?

Solid post btw.

[Muzzard]

He raises 4bbs, we reraise to 12bbs total it folds round to him

If you 3b from 4bbs to 12bbs, doesn't he have odds to setmine?

Solid post btw.

No not really.

He needs to call 8 to potentially win 92, which is 11.5:1 i think
Think of how many times we actually have a stacking off hand postflop when we are 3betting him like a monkey - Sure if we were only 3betting him w/QQ+/AK then yeah maybe the call would be fine. But we are 3b bluffing like 60-80% . Also he's goign to be oop postflop and setmining oop sucks.

[wakeup]

this works theoretically, but what about the other 3-4 players behind us

do u guys still 3b light when theres a donk in the blinds? i imagine cbets work pretty good tho vs them

[Keilah]

This isn't 3betting light IMO.

You need to be bluffing with your 3bets fairly often or else everyone will put you on QQ+, AK and pwn you accordingly.

[spoonitnow]

Good post, Muzz.

[badgers]

Good stuff here

Only thing I would add is that there is a lot we can do when our image becomes bad and they 4bet bluff too much. Yes, your way is unexploitable but we can do fun stuff like Keilah suggested such as 5bet bluff or 5bet with AQ etc, this may be better if they are adjusting to your aggression by 4bet/folding a v large % of the time.

Really good post though, move up already!

[HarleyGuy13]

Great post IMO. Would be great to throw it over the BC for other Noobs. This really helped me a lot and I'm about as Noooob as you can get.

[OhBollocks]

I got a lot from this thread when I read it first. Nh sir

Ive seen you link it a fair bit so heres some of the love your looking for

<3

[daven]

Great post IMO. Would be great to throw it over the BC for other Noobs. This really helped me a lot and I'm about as Noooob as you can get.

search function still works. people who aren't prepared to search for 3-betting theory posts are unlikely to get much out of reading them

[Miffed22001]

solid work

Dont believe your fold to 3bet ranges are quite right - certainly im getting called by 77-99 in mp lp and im a pretty tight but highly positional 3bettor even for a 100nl game.

Nonetheless - lots take from this

[fjuanl]

thanks for posting this

Ranges are different for 6m and HU obv, but I still gleaned something from it

by that I mean I started 3b like a monkey in NL50
lol nits never knew what hit 'em

[allabout]

This is a pretty timely bump and a nice original post. Seems like 3betting is the new cool thing at 100 FR, time to start exploiting.

[BooG690]

Nice post Muzzard. I've been working on 3betting and this is definitely a quality post. Good work.

Oh yeah...and BUMP!

This is a pretty timely bump and a nice original post. Seems like 3betting is the new cool thing at 100 FR, time to start exploiting.

pretty much
4bing is the new 3bing now

[ZwiFT]

What about if he adjusts by 4betting, we take 15% of our bluff range and start shoving it? The suited aces do decently against QQ+, AK.

Good post. I did the exact same maths a couple months ago, maybe I should have posted it too =)

If we reduce our 4bet bluffing range to less than the 61.5% we don't really need to 5bet bluff. We are unexploitable anyway to his 4bet bluffs based upon the math and he's going to be running into QQ+/AK 38.5% of the time which we woudl be able to 5bet shove profitably anyway when it reaches this stage.

When we reach this stage the standard vs our villains should be to decrease our 3bet bluffing % and increase our 5bet shoving range. Remember that folding to a 4bet is 0 EV, while if we increase our 5betrange (both bluff and valuerange) is +EV.

[Luco]

Nice bump. Didn't really get this the first time around, tried 3ball bluffing because muzz told me to lol and got sick burned for it.

Looking at it again, it makes a lot more sense this time.

btw if you 3b Axo it's a sick bad spot because people will fuck with you and 4b you if you're an active 3baller

but shoving Axo has a way higher price to bluff than Axs
with Axo you have 25% equity vs. QQ+,AK and with Axs you have 29% equity

so say the price to 5b bluff (how much you lose when called) could be 40BB when you 5b bluff with Axo, and only 32BB when you get called with Axs

so if the 4b is 25BB, you just need 56% folds with Axs and 62% folds with Axo! I suspect that it is a very easy quota to meet with Axs but actually much harder to show a profit with Axo

but when someone is messing with you shoving 44 is like pure awesome because you have 35% equity against a tight range which is why it's a good hand to 3b OOP vs. aggressive blind stealers that are looking to play back at your with 4bs

also, 97s is actually a better hand to shove as a bluff than A4o so include more of those suited hands when you 3b and less offsuit hands!

[Luco]

I feel like fucking hugging my monitor right now

[Robb]

I feel like fucking hugging my monitor right now

This made me LoL.

I've played about 5k hands of 50nl and 100nl FR lately, and these guys (even the TAGG-regs) really spew hard in 3bet pots against someone who knows what they're doing.

The OP is just awesome. I'm linking this on my massive "FTR Classic Content" post (2nd post in my operation thread, for a shameless plug).

[HeAVyB101]

How often should one be doing this though? maybe once every 3 orbits or so?

[Outlaw]

HOLY !@#!#, how did I miss this thread? This is awesome stuff.

I feel one of my weak points is calculating 3bet ranges and 3betting in general. Anyone mind posting some links/hands/videos to help me better grasp the above post?

I'm not a numbers guy so I need to see some situations where this is implemented.

Thanks!

[revolvingiris]

Bump, I come back to this post all the time. Thanks for writing it!

[WeaselT]

thnx for the bump, first time seeing this

[Im_new]

first time seeing this too.... time to start 3betting at 50nl!

[rpm]

when muzz says "we need to adjust our bluff range to less than 61% of our 3bet range to become unexploitable", is that vs this specific villain and his ranges? or against anyone? i've been trying to get a better understanding of 3betting ranges and EV lately. because i'm not veyr confident yet i've just been determining the range of hands i'm happy to felt to a 4bet, and 3betting them along with the same number of combos from A2s-->. so basically a 1:1 ratio of nuts/bluffs. but i'm keen to be able to become more villain specific in my 3betting though.

[jessyj]

Hey Muzz thanks for writing this a while ago. It really helped me with my 3 bet game back then and has helped me stay on top of my 3 betting game.

[philly and the phanatics]

this is a great post muzz and is of infinite value....that being said why are we never 3bing aq,aj,kq,kj,at ???? is that because they have enough value to just flat ?

[Illfavor]

this is a great post muzz and is of infinite value....that being said why are we never 3bing aq,aj,kq,kj,at ???? is that because they have enough value to just flat ?

You can 3bet them, but it'll be a bluff most of the time. You can widen your value range vs. those who call 3bets wide, but generally you're just equity shorting yourself. I'll 3b a nit who folds a ton w/ATo bc the hand is dominated in most cases so that may be more +ev than folding/calling.

Oh and when you're 3b bluffing, know that it's a bluff and don't think TP wAT in a 3bet is worth much vs. a nit's continuing range and such.

[spoonitnow]

know that it's a bluff and don't think TP wAT in a 3bet is worth much vs. a nit's continuing range and such.

lol did any one else read this as TOP PAIR WAT

kinda funny because if you read it like that it maintains the meaning

oh and bump

[dranger7070]

hahaha yea, I read it as WAT