flopped straight, bad turn and river (50NL PS)

[donkbee]

Villain is 85/15 over ~25 hands. The only significant thing I've seen him do so far is limp AK, min raise turned top pair and call an oop river bet.

The board got pretty bad. What should my plan be here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($14.00)
Button ($48.80)
SB ($54.05)
Hero (BB) ($88.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) J, 9, K (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50

River: ($22.75) 9 (2 player)
Hero ?

[pocketfours]

b/f

[donkbee]

what bet size do you recommend?

thx for your help!

[Alexos]

id b/f 13-15 ish

[Carroters]

Yah the reason it should be smallish is, well, think about the range of worse hands you're trying to get called by, 9x Kx etc. How is their relative hand strength on this board? Not very strong. We need to choose a size that doesn't fold out too many worse hands and get only called by all splits/better hence leaving the EV of the bet fucked. Think 13-15 is good.

[Mr. Diamond]

bet always vs this player - something like 14 or so

- and I would bet bigger on the flop and turn

[Fnord]

Must bet here. In a live game I would seriously think about shipping this and would consider setting it up with a bigger turn bet. He seems distrustful.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

$8

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Maybe call a small raise but not a shove