What's the equation/concept behind deciding to bet?

[Pioneer]

You are on the turn IP against a very passive opponent.

Hero raises pre-flop OTB:


Villain calls in BB, he calls about 20% of the time and rarely 3Bets (99, AQ+)

Flop:

Hero C-BETS, $60 into a $100 pot, Villain calls. (He folds 40-50%, raises about 15%)

Turn is:


Ignoring for now whether a bet on the flop was the best option...
What should we do on the turn if we know.

If we check behind turn Villain will check similiar hands on the river and only bet if he has us beaten.
If we bet Villian will only check-raise if he has us beaten.
He may call with some straight/flush draws, weak TP's, weaker 2nd pairs, Pair and GS etc.

Do you bet or check? How do you decide?

[griffey24]

Your example is pretty unreasonable.

If you say that you know he either has AA or JJ, and you know he folds JJ to a bet. Then I can also assume you know that if you check the flop, he will only bet into you with AA and check JJ. So then we can also say, check back flop and fold to all turn bets (since he only has AA here). Over-simplifying things doesn't always work so well.

You're not getting many replies, cause your question is hard to answer in a realistic scenario with all the possible hand ranges.

[Pioneer]

Thanks for the response Griffey.
I'll try re-write into something more reasonable in a moment.

[pocketfours]

I think this is a pretty easy bet for value/protection/showdown/balance. Lot tougher spot oop imo.