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Total air river bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default Total air river bluff?

    UTG is really tight.I dont use a hud and dont believe in them so I dont have numbers.But hes super tight.Id say he has ak,aq, and jj up for the most part.hes playing pretty robotic so I doubt hes out of line with raising a looser hand for image/meta.I call preflop cuz my hand is so versatile for implied odds and stealing against this player postflop since my image and gameflow is good.Plus we have decent stacks....I call flop with implied odds with the gutshot str8 and flush draw. And because I felt I had fold equity with the board texture against him depending on how he continues to react on turn.When he checked on the turn I just thought there was a great* chance hed fold to a believable bet, and a good chance hed fold to a double barrel depending again on how he reacts.Plus im not totally drawing dead especially with the 7 if he calls. When he called turn I was pretty surprised, he just seems to tight to call with a 6 outer (aq-ak) in hopes of hitting on one street.Thoughts on river bluff? Also I tried to convert hand and it wouldnt post it? Said not allowed to use img code?

    PokerStars Game #58953842456: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2011/03/10 1:20:19 ET
    Table 'Dagmar XII' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: sunny_gofish ($1.30 in chips)
    Seat 2: Hero ($3.75 in chips)
    Seat 4: dHarper91 ($2.33 in chips)
    Seat 5: Hairy_Llama ($6.08 in chips)
    Seat 6: SERSHELL ($3.98 in chips)
    dHarper91: posts small blind $0.02
    Hairy_Llama: posts big blind $0.05
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Hero [Td 8d]
    SERSHELL: raises $0.10 to $0.15
    sunny_gofish: folds
    Hero: calls $0.15
    dHarper91: folds
    Hairy_Llama: folds
    *** FLOP *** [6d 5c 9h]
    SERSHELL: bets $0.25
    Hero: calls $0.25
    *** TURN *** [6d 5c 9h] [3h]
    SERSHELL: checks
    Hero: bets $0.40
    SERSHELL: calls $0.40
    *** RIVER *** [6d 5c 9h 3h] [4s]
    SERSHELL: checks
    Hero: ???
    Last edited by try_2_improve; 03-10-2011 at 03:57 PM.
  2. #2
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP ($1.30)
    Hero (Button) ($3.75)
    SB ($2.33)
    BB ($6.08)
    UTG ($3.98)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 8
    UTG bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.37) 6, 5, 9 (2 players)
    UTG bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

    Turn: ($0.87) 3 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

    River: ($1.67) 4 (2 players)
    UTG checks

    Total pot: $1.67
    Stop playing suited gappers with a short stack, vs a short stack, vs an UTG open.
    Last edited by StarGrinder; 03-10-2011 at 04:59 PM.
  3. #3
    Ty for converting hands. But why on earth would I want to stop playing this hand in this particular situation>>? Atleast give a reasonable explanation besides stop playing them. That just seems super nitty vs a already super nitty opp.Also how do you figure stax r short.on the flop theres what 7 big blinds and 70 big blinds left behind in our stacks.Plenty of room to outplay someone.Question is...is this a good spot on river
    Last edited by try_2_improve; 03-10-2011 at 05:17 PM.
  4. #4
    kmind's Avatar
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    When someone has a really tight range you should either play a tighter range or play hands with high implied odds. I know you attempted to do the latter, but implied odds call for biggish stacks and you guys aren't even 100bb deep. Because of this, I would fold preflop without a second though. I DO, however, like your thinking. The thing though is that you can't really steal with this hand vs. a tight range and you need to win a lot of money when you actually hit for it to be profitable.

    As for the hand, I'm not sure. I think by betting smallish no the turn then betting at least 2/3 pot is good. It'd be good to know how scared he is of certain boards.
  5. #5
    bikes's Avatar
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    ?wut
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by try_2_improve View Post
    Plenty of room to outplay someone.
    Considering this is 5NL, you're going to get yourself into a ton of spewy FPS situations if you continue thinking this way. Don't try to out play people, just value bet the shit out of them.

    You'd be lucky to break even at best playing suited 2-gappers with no blockers vs UTG's tight ass range, who most likely can't fold over pairs.

    Also, use the auto-top up feature on Stars so you can get max value/odds vs other full stacks at the table.
    Last edited by StarGrinder; 03-10-2011 at 09:32 PM.
  7. #7
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    Well now that we're @ this point shoving is pretty obvious.
    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...-a-153854.html

    Join IRC. Now.

    <Cobra> Nobody folds an A BvB, that's absurd
  8. #8
    Wow,kinda surprised how out of line you guys think i am for playing this hand...Anyway I bet $1.20 and took it down.I dont think shoving is bad either streetbet....but I wasnt outa line at all and didnt want opp thinking to much into my bet if I shoved and have him end up calling.Theres alot of meta dynamics goin on if you do that I think,and it wouldnt of made sense to him and looked fishy especialy with board texture....On another note I thought $1.20 was minumum amount/enough to get opp to fold,which he did,its just I was kinda up in the air whether it was the right thing to do. Hence me asking
  9. #9
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Right. You were not out of line at all and all the players who freely volunteered good advice above are full of shit.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  10. #10
    "but I wasnt outa line at all and didnt want opp thinking to much into my bet if I shoved and have him end up calling"....This was a refrence to me shoving.What I meant was I hadn't been out of line making big psychological overbets.So I didnt like shoving over a standard bet...due to the fact as i said I didnt want him thinking to much into my overpot bet and talking himself into a call....................i didnt mean I wasnt out of line playing my hand to begin with.....I appreciate any and all "free volentary advice" I get......I see you misunderstood david and dont blame you the way I jumped from one subject to the other so quik....sorrry im drinking :-/
    Last edited by try_2_improve; 03-12-2011 at 01:43 AM.
  11. #11
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    hmmm... david was ironic my guess.

    kmind and stargrinder may not be world poker champs ( yet ) but they sure are better players then you. the advice they gave you is good, stop playing that kind of hands being short stack ( under 100bb pre flop) HU vs an UTG opener.

    the reason? read their posts again. this kind of hand, with this kind of play, may have won you this pot, but poker is not a "one hand game", its a long run game and in the long run you will be losing a lot with this kind of play.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  12. #12
    daviddem's Avatar
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    OK I misunderstood, but the way you wrote it was really ambiguous.

    Truth is that you do not need to play hands like these (esp. not with shallow stacks) at 5NL to be vastly profitable, and because of the way the game is at 5NL, even with 100bb stacks, it most likely wont' make you significantly more profitable if at all.

    Personally, the only times I play SC's is on steals from the CO or button (and even then, not always). I don't call raises with them because there is generally not enough fold equity post flop to make the play (significantly) profitable imo. One exception would be if stacks are super deep, and then I only continue if I hit the flop hard.

    Seriously, if you used a HUD and database, you could look back and realize that the overwhelming majority of your winnings at 5NL come from big pairs, big aces and hitting sets. So be a nit, set mine, stack people who can't fold top pair or an overpair (and learn to fold yours when appropriate), cbet appropriately, and don't bluff further than that unless you have very specific reads. Value bet as much as you can on the flop and turn to charge draws that won't pay a river bet when they miss. And don't pay off draws when they hit. You'll clear 5NL in no time and with minimal variance. Remember that variance is a killer: if you are a 10bb / 100 hands winning player, it will take you an average of 1000 hands to recover a lost 100bb stack... Yes you will sometimes fold the best hand, but that is not worse than stacking off with the worse hand now, is it? Variance is bad enough without making high variance plays unnecessarily.

    Later, at higher stakes, when people won't pay off your sets anymore and won't chase draws or auto stack off with top pair, you can start adding these plays to your repertoire. Actually you'll probably have to, and you will have to accept higher variance to stay profitable.
    Last edited by daviddem; 03-12-2011 at 11:40 AM.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  13. #13
    Think about UTG's range. He's probably opening 77+, AQs+, AQo+. Ok, now narrow that down when he check/calls the turn. He still has 77+ and at least 1 combo of AKs and AQs (hearts). He could have more combos of AK/AQ just chasing an overcard too if he's really bad post. Anyway, the river completes the A2 idiot end and any 7x hand for the straight, including 78 which was the nuts on the flop. (But remember 77 is in his range).

    Now considering the vast majority of low limit players can't fold overpairs, what is he folding here? He's probably not ever folding 99+. He might call with 77 or 88 depending on your river bet sizing and how much he has left. So congratulations you folded out 2 likely combos of AhKh and AhQh. Not exactly the kind of odds I want on my side. Being a little sarcastic here with the river check/fold range, but then again I'm not. Play this hand 20 times with the same board cards vs the same UTG range and tell me if you make money.
    Last edited by StarGrinder; 03-12-2011 at 11:11 AM.
  14. #14
    bikes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
    Think about UTG's range. He's probably opening 77+, AQs+, AQo+. Ok, now narrow that down when he check/calls the turn. He still has 77+ and at least 1 combo of AKs and AQs (hearts). He could have more combos of AK/AQ just chasing an overcard too if he's really bad post. Anyway, the river completes the A2 idiot end and any 7x hand for the straight, including 78 which was the nuts on the flop. (But remember 77 is in his range).

    Now considering the vast majority of low limit players can't fold overpairs, what is he folding here? He's probably not ever folding 99+. He might call with 77 or 88 depending on your river bet sizing and how much he has left. So congratulations you folded out 2 likely combos of AhKh and AhQh. Not exactly the kind of odds I want on my side. Being a little sarcastic here with the river check/fold range, but then again I'm not. Play this hand 20 times with the same board cards vs the same UTG range and tell me if you make money.
    I probably do and if you keep calling me down on this board with that range against anyone remotely competent tell me if you make money.

    even fish can fold overpairs on the most horrific of boards. stop with the condescending tone in posts and i might stop making them in mine. that goes for everyone in the bc its redic how out of hand its getting.

    ?wut
  15. #15
    So the pot is calling the kettle black now? How's that for irony. I guess we'll just agree to disagree then but I'm standing by what I said, minus the condescending tone which was more tongue-in-cheek than anything. It's poker, not a dick waving contest, so stop getting butt hurt over a little tough-love analysis. It's all good in the hood.
    Last edited by StarGrinder; 03-12-2011 at 11:56 AM.
  16. #16
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Now to discuss the bluff (and I don't mean to be condescending, this is a genuine question to OP and the better players who posted above), and assuming that we are up against a thinking player who can fold overpairs, what are we representing when we bet big or shove on the river, that makes sense all along? I don't see many 2's in our perceived river range. 77 kinda makes sense if we are chasing that vs a UTG open + cbet but I can't see other sevens (maybe 57s if you stretch it). Seems to me that with 56s, 78s or a set we would raise the flop or bet the turn bigger. If we have a flopped straight or a set, looks like we failed to set up the stacks to get all the money in.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
    So the pot is calling the kettle black now? How's that for irony. I guess we'll just agree to disagree then but I'm standing by what I said, minus the condescending tone which was more tongue-in-cheek than anything. It's poker, not a dick waving contest, so stop getting butt hurt over a little tough-love analysis. It's all good in the hood.
    If it's not a dick waving contest then quit waving your dick around ldo.
  18. #18
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    If it's not a dick waving contest then quit waving your dick around ldo.
    Funny you're the one saying that with an avatar like yours...
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  19. #19
    kmind's Avatar
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    Come on guys, too many dicks being waved. E-hug it out, PM each other or let it go. Please just stay on topic. We're all here to learn.
  20. #20
    daviddem's Avatar
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    FWIW, on my side, I was just kidding, not being scornful or sarcastic or anything. Just making fun of Carrot's avatar.

    I maintain my question above, what are we representing when we bluff the river?
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  21. #21
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
    FWIW, on my side, I was just kidding, not being scornful or sarcastic or anything. Just making fun of Carrot's avatar.

    I maintain my question above, what are we representing when we bluff the river?
    You're good. I have avatars turned off so I'm not sure what he has up there, but I was just talking to everyone in general.

    Anyways, we represent a lot of stuff better than an overpair. I reaaaally doubt villain even puts us on a range...

    He probably just says "fuck this board" and folds.

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