5NL FR - KK 3-bet pot facing flop all-in donk bet

[daviddem]

Opp is a donk who limps and calls raises with any 2 suited or connected. I seen him show down shit like J6s or 45o. He is 50/0/1 over 20 hands.

I must have a complete maniac image because I've had an incredible run of cards in my first hands at the table. I was running 40/35 or so.

After my show of strength preflop, I am unsure whether he still calls with his entire range but I would certainly weigh it more towards pocket pairs or high cards than the suited/connected trash.

Then comes the flop and the all-in donk bet. Again unsure whether he hit a set, has a draw or an overpair, or even air. So far I seen him be passive with his draws and go all-in with his strong hands though, but here with my image and the bloated pot, I can see that kind of player deciding to go all in on the flop no matter what. What really makes me tick is that if he is thinking at all, he should know I'll bet again if checked to, so why would he donk a set or straight and take the chance that I don't pay him off.

Since these are my first hands at 5NL and I have been doing good so far, I just folded (decided to follow the advice in the other thread "if unsure, fold". Now against such a donkey, I don't think I would normally fold this (read: if I was well into the green at 5NL).

What do you think?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP2) ($8.84)
CO ($5.43)
Button ($3.99)
SB ($3.74)
BB ($4.86)
UTG ($4.42)
MP1 ($3.82)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
UTG bets $0.17, MP1 calls $0.17, Hero raises $0.75, 5 folds, MP1 calls $0.58

Flop: ($1.74) 7, 5, 6 (2 players)
MP1 bets $3.07 (All-In)

Total pot: $1.74

[ManicLombax]

I'm thinking call. If he's as donkish as you say, 88+ is definitely in his shoving range. As you said I'd discount his calling with 98 but it's possible. He'd probably get it in pf with AA. I think you're ahead of most of his range. If he turns over a set I think you probably played it right anyhow.

[!Luck]

Snap it, but let's see you put a real range on this guy.

[daviddem]

OK, imagine he'd call the preflop reraise with 22+,AQ+

Pot odds after his donk bet are 39%.

The real problem is putting him on a range for his donk bet:
- if he does it with his entire range my equity = 68%
- if he does it with only his overpairs (no OESD) {99+} my equity = 70%
- if he does it with only his sets or AA or KK {AA,KK,55,66,77} my equity = 13%
- if he does it with his open ended straight draws {88,44} my equity = 62%

So it pretty much comes down to how often he does that with a set. Again, a sensible opponent would know that the chances that I bet again if checked to are overwhelming, and that there is a chance that I will fold to an all-in donk bet, so he would not do that with a set: it would be smarter to check/raise all in once I am committed. I guess it would be a decent play with an open-ended straight draw because of the combination of equity and fold equity. With air or very little equity, it seems very risky to try such a bluff given the image I had at the table.

Let's say he does it with all sets, KK+ and OESD {KK+,44,55,66,77,88}. Then my equity = 34%. If I make the sets slightly less likely by removing some combos, I can stretch it to 39%...

So the question comes down to whether he is a sensible opponent who would not do this with sets.

Edit: I agree it's probably a call, but I am still worried in general when I see normally super-passive players become aggro. This one really made me feel like he wanted to be the hero who stacked the guy who had been running over the table for the last two orbits...

[!Luck]

its too easy to put a narrative to the villain's thought process, but that rarely helps you.

Evidence #1: Weird stack size
Evidence #2: Weird play in general


Also, to break even all you need is for him to shove his OPSD. That's a pretty tight range.


Hand 0: 40.115% 38.38% 01.73% 47880 2160.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 59.885% 58.15% 01.73% 72540 2160.00 { 88-44 }

[tyrn]

Snap call, he's hardly ever doing this with sets or 2 pair or straights. I would expect c/r, especially if he perceives you as a maniac like you said. you're ahead 90% of the time here.

My guess is 78, A8, A7, A4

[oskar]

You live in Dubay? r u a sheikh or sumthin?

about the hand: what everyone else said. You're so far ahead. There might be the rare freak occurrence where he shows up with a better hand, but his range still contains overpairs and some totally random hands. Calling would be close if you had TT

[Carroters]

This is perhaps the easiest call I've ever seen. Think about how often fish actually play sets/nuts like this.

[daviddem]

You live in Dubay? r u a sheikh or sumthin?

about the hand: what everyone else said. You're so far ahead. There might be the rare freak occurrence where he shows up with a better hand, but his range still contains overpairs and some totally random hands. Calling would be close if you had TT

Dude if I were a Sheikh I wouldn't play 5NL... I am from Belgium, I work rotations on the drilling rigs in the Middle-East (4 weeks work, 4 weeks off). I recently moved from Dubai. I am in the Philippines now, where I can find pork chops, cheap beer, good diving and lovely girls. Not to mention the best card room in Manila a block away from my house. Need to update my profile I guess.

I agree for the hand, it's definitely a call.

[daviddem]

To summarize this hand, I just found this recent post by m2m:

[ ] donk leads in 3b pots are strong

[AFchung]

call.

a lot of weaker overpairs are gna be like OHSNAP undercard flop, better jam it before the board gets scary.