100NL TT turn minraise

[Gobbatino]

Villain is a fishy 47/2 over a small sample. He's aggro post flop and on has won a few hands in succession by betting a lot when facing weakness.

Thoughts on turn sizing? Considering his aggression and fishy stats we definitely can't fold it. What's the plan for the river if we call? Check call hoping he'll bet worse? Donk?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($118.35)
Button ($142)
SB ($102)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($101.50)
UTG+1 ($106.50)
MP1 ($113.70)
MP2 ($121)
MP3 ($74.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button bets $5.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($18) 5, 9, 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button checks

Turn: ($18) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 raises to $24, 1 fold, Hero calls $12

[Imthenewfish]

stats on btn? we're pretty much always ahead of him here and hes not really floating very often here 3 way imo. why do we only lead for 12 on the turn when the fish is calling a closer to psb like just as often? as played i dont really see any option besides call because raise and fold seems bad. I mean we might value town him if he's minraise 65 type hands on the turn, but i think hes much more likely to flat those hands in these spots.

[bikes]

smells like a set

[daven]

fold turn and save a minimum of $12

[BankItDrew]

fold 100%

his value range is way wider than his bluffing range

[Gobbatino]

Wow, I'm surprised tbh.

If it was a complete unknown or a standard passive I would fold as well, but as I said, I've seen this one being generally aggro, stealing a few pots post flop by betting a lot. Isn't folding to a min raise against this particular villain kinda weak?

[Micro2Macro]

1. 76 gets there, 55,33,44,99 are all sets and he can have 2pair combos like 54 or 95s.

2. theres a chance he gets tricky with an overpair here like QQ if he's the type to play goofy/splashy

3. You have 2 outs to improve and you may be drawing dead to a straight.

4. you are not calling $12 to see if he is bluffing. you are calling $12 to see a river and then face ANOTHER BET. Your pot odds are not as good as they appear. His range is pretty polarized to hands that beat you and some weird air because he is never value betting worse, but with air its much more likely the player in question would just raise the flop because for him to have air on the turn to raise you he'd have to have floated with some random junk.

Therefore your turn call is horrendous spew.

[Gobbatino]

Hmm, this is enlightening. I think I'd normally be calling here any day against any fishy player with aggro turn stats. I'll have to dig around my db to see how I'm doing in these spots.

I thought this was a standard call and posted the hand more for a river plan than the turn call.

FYI, river was blank, we checked, he showed 66. Obv not saying that that makes my turn call good, but the results might give you some context as to why I posted the hand.

[oskar]

Fold turn. Lead flop. You cannot expect the pfr to cb bluff here like ever. And if he bets, then you're still in an awkward spot. I would just lead this all the time.

[Gobbatino]

Fold turn. Lead flop. You cannot expect the pfr to cb bluff here like ever. And if he bets, then you're still in an awkward spot. I would just lead this all the time.

Thanks for bringing this up. I would've never thought of donking the flop, but it makes sense (I'm totally aware that my donking range is completely unbalanced and almost nonexistant, so this is a big area of improvement). If we donk and the fish comes along and the PFRer folds, what's our plan on the turn?

[BankItDrew]

If we donk and the fish comes along and the PFRer folds, what's our plan on the turn?

Value town the fuck out of the feesh with our overpair!

[oskar]

It's only a donk bet when others do it, when you do it you LEAD!

Just think about what's the difference really if it got limped to you, you raise from the blinds and get three callers. btn's range looks slightly different, but that's about it.

[johnnyBuz]

Why didn't you lead the flop with a 2/3 - 3/4 sized bet?