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Poker Odds and Probabilities

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  1. #1

    Question Poker Odds and Probabilities

    Can anyone please recommend a website or a book that covers calculating Poker Odds and Probabilities in detail. I know how to calculate pot odds | implied odds and whether or not I have the odds to call the raise etc. However, i find myself lost when I read other peoples comments that my 6c4c are x% fav/dog against XY hand.

    I was reading Gus's book - every hand revealed and Gus is a very mathematically correct player apart from being a maniac - time n again he mentions that my hand was 30% fav against my opponents pre flop. HOw do you memorize, more over how do u find out what your opponent is holding? let alone find the percentage of ur hand being successful against your opponent.
  2. #2
    PokerStove: Poker Software and Analysis

    download pokerstove, its free play around with it. there are videos on how to use it on youtube.
  3. #3

    Default Thanks

    Thanks a ton.. got it to run on my mac as well.
  4. #4
    The rule of two and four helps give a rough guidance as well (mid-play)

    if you have nine outs on the flop then the odds of you winning on the river are roughly 36%...the odds of you hitting on the turn are roughly 18% etc
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  5. #5
    daviddem's Avatar
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    A nice refinement of the rule of 2 and 4 when you have many outs is to subtract the number of outs beyond 8 from the rule of 4. So if you have 15 outs on the flop, you would have 15*4 - 7 = 53% chance to hit by the river.

    The real number is 54.1%.

    Do not apply this correction for the rule of 2.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPoker View Post
    The rule of two and four helps give a rough guidance as well (mid-play)

    if you have nine outs on the flop then the odds of you winning on the river are roughly 36%...the odds of you hitting on the turn are roughly 18% etc
    Has nothing to do with what op asked!
    "You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
    The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

    Quote Originally Posted by XxStacksxX View Post
    Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13 View Post
    Has nothing to do with what op asked!
    Yes it does. The rule of two and four can give you an estimate of your equity in certain spots i.e.

    Quote Originally Posted by OP
    let alone find the percentage of ur hand being successful against your opponent.
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPoker View Post
    Yes it does. The rule of two and four can give you an estimate of your equity in certain spots i.e.
    Ok dumbass the rule of two and four gives you the % of chance that your perceived outs will come. HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROBABILITY OR EQUITY against anther hand!
    "You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
    The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

    Quote Originally Posted by XxStacksxX View Post
    Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it
  9. #9
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Yes, Harley, it is still a decent way to estimate equity. If your outs always give you the best hand, then the % of the time you hit them is the % of the time you win the hand, or win% in pokerstove, which is usually very close from your equity barring tied pots.

    If your outs do not always give you the best hand or are not all "clean" (such as flush outs on the flop facing a set for example), then the way to go is to discount some of your outs to get the rule back closer to actual equity.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13 View Post
    Ok dumbass the rule of two and four gives you the % of chance that your perceived outs will come. HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROBABILITY OR EQUITY against anther hand!
    What did I do to you for you to speak to me in such a way? I actually liked you.

    Either way, go read Professional No Limit Holdem or something.

    BECAUSE:

    Yes, Harley, it is still a decent way to estimate equity. If your outs always give you the best hand, then the % of the time you hit them is the % of the time you win the hand, or win% in pokerstove, which is usually very close from your equity barring tied pots.

    If your outs do not always give you the best hand or are not all "clean" (such as flush outs on the flop facing a set for example), then the way to go is to discount some of your outs to get the rule back closer to actual equity.
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPoker View Post
    What did I do to you for you to speak to me in such a way? I actually liked you.

    Either way, go read Professional No Limit Holdem or something.

    BECAUSE:
    Buddy I'm just giving you a hard time wasn't an attack. Gotta have thicker skin. My apology if I offended you!

    My point is the op understands the individual points he's wanting to know how to put it all together. Guess I am the dumbass for saying "it has nothing to do with...." Yes it is a portion of the equation!
    "You start the game with a full pot o’ luck and an empty pot o’ experience...
    The object is to fill the pot of experience before you empty the pot of luck."

    Quote Originally Posted by XxStacksxX View Post
    Do you have testicles? If so, learn to bet like it
  12. #12
    In all honesty, OP's post was pretty badly written. Let's look at his actual questions:

    Quote Originally Posted by noteluv View Post
    Can anyone please recommend a website or a book that covers calculating Poker Odds and Probabilities in detail.
    Book: Professional No Limit Hold Em. /question
    Website: Google is your friend, though I'm perplexed becayse what you say you already know is really all you need to know as a raw beginner i.e. implied/pot odds.

    Knowledge of combos would also help too. In which case go here: How-To: Calculating Hand Combinations, About Blockers, etc. - Poker Forums

    Just read the whole damn BC Digest at the top of the BC.

    How do you memorize, more over how do u find out what your opponent is holding?
    This question is about hand reading ldo, and the best answer on this forum is probably here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html

    But also see here: What´s a range, Dad? - Poker Forums
    Last edited by EasyPoker; 12-23-2010 at 12:16 PM.
    [20:19] <Zill4> god
    [20:19] <Zill4> u guys
    [20:19] <Zill4> so fking hopeless
    [20:19] <Zill4> and dumb
  13. #13
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Also for basic poker math, probabilities, equities, pot odds, EV equations and all that good stuff, definitely read no limit theory and practice by Sklansky. Bit of a tough read, but very very valuable.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
    Ignoranus (n): A person who is stupid AND an assh*le
  14. #14
    stopped reading after the 8th post because of excessive trollings and RAGE itt
    edit- for OP: some links that may help
    YouTube - spoonitnow.com - Quick Guide to PokerStove Shortcuts - pokerstove help
    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html - important after you guesstimate your equity
    im not sure how relative this is, but this may help also http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html
    gl
    Last edited by Imthenewfish; 12-23-2010 at 03:27 PM.

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