TP and 2nd NFD face 3 way AI after c/r

[Donachello]

Full Tilt - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $44.30
SB: $50.00
BB: $67.60
Hero (UTG): $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has K J

Hero raises to $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, fold, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25, 3 players) 7 K 8
BB checks, Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4.00, BB raises to $18.00, Hero calls $14.00, BTN raises to $42.30 and is all-in, BB raises to $65.60 and is all-in, Hero

This was like the 10th hand or so at the table so I don't have any reads on the BB so let's just assume he is a standard reg. The BTN is a fish from what I can tell due to him limping multiple hands preflop.

I chose to flat the BB's c/r because even if it is a range of entirely sets I think I can get the BTN to call with some draws and possibly worse Kx if I flat instead of jamming. This is the main spot I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts, though I think keeping the fish in the pot is usually going to work out well as a lot of his calling range is dominated.

Now that the fish shoves and the c/r over calls it's kind of like wtfff. Being up against the NFD from the BTN would obviously suck a ton. However, if I give both of them a few more draws or even a hand like AK I can profitably get it in here with my hand so this may just be kind of standard given that at least one of the players is a fish and I have massive odds to call.

[JL]

BB will show up with combo draws, NFD, 2pr and sets here.

BTN is a fish so it's impossible to give him an accurate range for poker stove. He could have some random FDs and Kx. I've seen some fish show up with KJ type hands here in similar spots.

I'm gonna say call without poker stoving it. We need only ~20% equity to call here.

[pocketfours]

sucks to be drawing dead imo

[pocketfours]

pokerstove ftw

[JL]

I don't understand your two posts P4s. Did you poker stove it and it shows we are drawing dead?

We need 21% equity to call...

Board: Kd 8s 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.765% 28.55% 00.21% 74252 555.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 33.830% 32.96% 00.87% 85721 2259.00 { 88-77, AsQs, AsTs, As9s, Ts9s, 9s6s, 87s, 6s5s }
Hand 2: 37.405% 36.32% 01.08% 94463 2814.00 { 88-77, K8s-K7s, 87s, K8o-K7o, 87o }

This is a tight range, and it is still a call. The fish has every 2 pair in his range. Throw in some slowplayed AK/AA/KK or some random flushdraws from the fish and our equity increases.
The BB can also have some K8/K7s which increases our equity even more.

[pocketfours]

I don't understand your two posts P4s. Did you poker stove it and it shows we are drawing dead?

No it was tl;dr and looked like a fairly simple stove operation. I would fold if there wasn't a fish in the pot.

[grindinginnj]

Wow you would fold there P4s he can only have a set here?

[Ravageur]

yeah gambool time imo

[Toadstool]

worst case scenario your equity is about 3%

[pocketfours]

^^^^ less than 1% actually (theoretical)

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Am I a total nit for thinking you can fold to the first c/r?

[pocketfours]

^^ I like it.

[Lukie]

Am I a total nit for thinking you can fold to the first c/r?

yes.

BB would have to be a set-camping mega nit to make it a fold.

after the 2nd raise we're getting like 4:1 with a combo draw, easy call.

maybe try really hard to spike a 9 and 10 or something

[Ravageur]

wow, American SSNL must be so tough if many of you are considering a fold here. I mean aren't there any spewtards left on American sites? You describe button as a fish so he can have all sorts of stupidly played crap that we crush/flip with so it's not like villains ranges are NFD and sets here. I'm kinda amazed at replies so far (which tells me I'm not thinking this one through enough I guess)

[pocketfours]

after the 2nd raise we're getting like 4:1 with a combo draw, easy call.

I wouldn't really call this a combo draw in a three way pot, but maybe that's just my recent plo experimentation messing with my head.

[Lukie]

I wouldn't really call this a combo draw in a three way pot, but maybe that's just my recent plo experimentation messing with my head.

true, but we are also getting much better pot odds than we typically would in a heads up pot.

here is an unreasonably tight range that would make the 2nd call breakevenish.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
52,374 games 0.005 secs 10,474,800 games/sec
Board: 7s 8s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.632% 20.63% 00.00% 10806 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 35.651% 35.65% 00.00% 18672 0.00 { 88-77, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s }
Hand 2: 43.716% 43.72% 00.00% 22896 0.00 { 88-77, Ts9s, 87s }


fish gets the 2 sets and 4 nut flush combos (far and away too tight)
bb also gets the sets plus the 87s 2 pairs and ts9s, 10 total combos

[Lukie]

here's another overly tight range that still comes out to a very thin call:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
27,090 games 0.005 secs 5,418,000 games/sec
Board: 7s 8s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.997% 21.00% 00.00% 5688 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 30.177% 30.18% 00.00% 8175 0.00 { 88-77, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs }
Hand 2: 48.826% 48.83% 00.00% 13227 0.00 { 88-77 }

of course if we truly assigned bb's range to 77-88 then we would fold to the first raise.

[Lukie]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
10,836 games 0.005 secs 2,167,200 games/sec
Board: 7s 8s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 02.990% 02.99% 00.00% 324 0.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 25.194% 25.19% 00.00% 2730 0.00 { AsQs, AsJs, AsTs }
Hand 2: 71.816% 71.82% 00.00% 7782 0.00 { 88-77 }


now we're effffed

[Ravageur]

those ranges are just silly......

[Toadstool]

those ranges are just silly......

If both of the villains were Dan Harrington, would you still think those ranges were silly?

[Ravageur]

no...but from OP : The BTN is a fish from what I can tell due to him limping multiple hands preflop.

Pocketfours needs to take off his PLO-tinted glasses. Button has just about all worse flush draws in his range + all kinds of bare top pairs + the goods a small amount of the time. Unless people disagree with that i don't see how you can really advise a fold once we've put so much in.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

wow, American SSNL must be so tough if many of you are considering a fold here.

If the c/rer only shows up with sets an 87 here how does that make American ssnl tough...

American ssnl games are just not as aggro...

[Genitruc]

yeah good point. I think I was just referring to the fact that i would be so happy getting it in here in my games, whereas it seems like there's just less spewing in these games. Suppose that doesn't make it any tougher, just a lot different postflop.

Edit : Rav posting on Genitruc's account

[Lukie]

those ranges are just silly......

I know this...

here is an unreasonably tight range that would make the 2nd call breakevenish.

here's another overly tight range that still comes out to a very thin call:

[Ravageur]

yeah sorry lukie, i saw the ranges and p4s post, rereading the thread i probably should have just stfu

[sauce123]

uhm call lol