OESD w/ overs in multiway flop w/ a short stacker

[rowhousepd]

From UTG I flop an OESD w/ a backdoor FD facing one loose shortie (40/10/4), and another vanilla player w/ few hands. (Btw, I don't normally raise 3xbb and usually w/ a little better than KQs, but occasionally I do.) It's a nice little draw, but I'm not sure how to play these hands: UTG+2 is inevitably going to bet the rest of his stack, and if I call it will be a for an amt larger than I'd ideally like ... and then we still have the other MP2 villain to worry about.

Assuming in that wide range he could either have and A or any king, maybe Tx or possibly that last J. Those would all warrant a shoves. Since MP2 is more sane, he could easily have connected w/ the flop or hit a pair, or had a non-premium PP. Either way, if he continues he will likely be with something that could have me beat.

Right now, with something like that scenario, I'm at ~40%, UTG+2 is ~35, and MP2 is almost 30%. I guess my question is whether to get involved at all in this hand, and just chk/call and wait to see how they respond first? Or do I come out with a nice bet, fold to any action. I'm just not sure what will get my speculative hand sucked into battle it may not hold up at the end of. Any suggestions?

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP2: $2.00
CO: $1.34
BTN: $2.03
SB: $1.78
BB: $2.00
Hero (UTG): $2.09
UTG+1: $2.00
UTG+2: $0.42
MP1: $0.93

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with Q K
Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.06, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.06, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.21) T J J (3 players)
Hero???

[daviddem]

I'd bet this one $0.13 or so. If one of them wants to raise,there is a decent chance that it will be a min raise giving you almost direct odds to call, or a shove from the shortie against who you can get it in.

If it's a pot sized raise from MP2 though, you have to fold because you can never count your K and Q as outs.

[rong]

I c/c the flop, I don't like betting my draws on paired boards, espec at 2nl when TJ/AJ/KJ is everyones calling range.

[Razvan729]

i cant find a range for them that makes you 40% equity... and my play at 2nl in this case, would be c/c flop, if i hit its still c/c cause any A/9 wich makes your straight also gives one of them full house... maybe this sounds stupid, but i even consider an c/f here on flop since i am totally unsure of my outs.

[daviddem]

i cant find a range for them that makes you 40% equity... and my play at 2nl in this case, would be c/c flop, if i hit its still c/c cause any A/9 wich makes your straight also gives one of them full house... maybe this sounds stupid, but i even consider an c/f here on flop since i am totally unsure of my outs.

OK so maybe we have 40% equity against their continuing range. But do we not have any fold equity when we bet?

[Razvan729]

they only fold air and 22-88, i am pretty sure 99 floats this flop if not even shove over us ( 2nl pro's).
we get called here by any Jx,Tx, any straight draws. too many combos that call... i hate to bet this flop OOP.

[daviddem]

What do you mean "they only fold air and 22-88"? How much % of their range is that? Is that not a significant portion of their range that they fold there, including lots of hands currently better than yours? Would that not be enough fold equity to make a semi-bluff profitable? Time for counting combos and doing the math! Just ignore the short stacker in your caclulations because you can get it in against him anyway.

[supa]

c/c. Almost nobody at this stake is betting this flop with a J. People slowplay these hands way too much.

[rowhousepd]

If the shorty's VPIP is 40, and assuming he shoves premium hands preflop, is it safe to say he's continuation range would be something like: { JJ-99,AJs-ATs,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o } ... or is this too wide? Maybe I'm way off w/ his range and my equity calculations are off too.

[Hoopy]

Bet $0.11/call vs short stack, b/f vs other guy. If just the other guy calls I'd barrel the turn often to take him off hands like 99-22 which make up most of his flop c/c range.