AT in 3 bet pot vs aggro fish

[Carroters]

Villains is running 56/41 and opens really wide from pretty much everywhere. The hand before this I 3 bet him and c bet half pot on Axx to which he folded. He basically doesn't fold to 3-bet so this is for value.

On the flop I feel like he's likely to fold no better hands at all and bluff raise a decent amount just given frustration, recent history etc. I elect to check and call down on safe board run outs.

This is a turn where I think I can get some better hands to fold, but then meh maybe he's bad enough just to call with any pair. Getting to sd is maybe better than betting. As played I don't see any choice but to b/f.

Thoughts on my line please.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($52.80)
SB ($70.10)
BB ($20.75)
UTG ($50)
Hero (MP) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, A
UTG bets $1.50, Hero raises $4.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) 4, 9, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9.75) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG raises $14.50, Hero folds

Total pot: $22.75

[Toadstool]

Considering he opens 56% and doesn't really fold to 3bets He probably gets to the turn with ~40% of hands, without a read to say otherwise I doubt his value C/R range includes anything less than AQ, which is like 5% of hands or something, So if he's capable of bluffing at all then it could be good to call down.

I think the bet is good on the turn as you probably have close to 50% equity against his calling range, and avoid potentially getting bluffed off the best hand on the river by the hands in his range that will C/C the turn and check the river (K 10 etc)

saying that, I'd fold, as river bets need to be taken into consideration.

[Carroters]

There's also another problem with calling down here, mainly that he's so bad and has no idea what he's doing and so may well be c/r like TT or 9x sometimes just out of sheer lunacy, this thwarts things further if we want to continue. Defo don't think it has to be as tight as AQ+ for value vs an idiot.

[Toadstool]

It certainly can't be ruled out, but I at least give him credit for "What does my opponent have?" in which case he'd consider stuff like that bluffcatchers (not that he knows what it means, but just he knows you could have a Q) and give less weight to things like 9x etc

[pocketfours]

check turn

[Alexos]

check turn

+1

[rpm]

i don't really expect him to fold a pair (at least not to a turn barrel alone), he may C/R bluff us some amount of the time, we have SD value with our ace high. so i check it back.

[Fnord]

he may C/R bluff us some amount of the time.

Only pre-flop aggression numbers are given. Raising a bunch of hands and splashing around on small streets doesn't make it a given that he'll play bigger streets like that (without a hand.)

When you see a guy like this, pay really close attention to how he's playing post-flop. It should be really easy to figure him out because he's in so many pots!

[ZwiFT]

would fire flop half pot, then fire the turn abit bigger then half almost reguardless of cards

[Fnord]

Turn is a value bet!

I don't think bet/fold is that terrible of a line here, just didn't work out.

Check is probably best.