QQ in 3 bet pot. Is it just me or is this sizing terrifying?

[Carroters]

Villain is 29/16 dumb reg who hates to fold to 3-bets (30% FT3B) I think his range for c/r this flop is pretty damn bluff heavy with some draws mixed in and possibly contains shit like TT/JJ sometimes. Basically, I decide the best way to maximise vs this is to call and allow him to bluff turns, especially when I blocks lots of his draws with the Qh and don't mind h turns all that much.

When this turn peeled off I planned to call a jam for sure. This sizing though strikes me as so ridiculously unbalanced and almost like he just has a flush all the time. Like why the hell would he ever bet a size other than a shove with a bluff/semi bluff here? Folding seems crazy at first and might well be, but it crossed my mind when he sizes this horribly and appears to be removing all the bluffs or semi bluffs from his range. Thoughts on this?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($50)
CO ($52.20)
Hero (Button) ($57)
SB ($14.20)
BB ($60.10)
UTG ($53.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
2 folds, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises $4.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) 2, 3, 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5.50, CO raises $14.50, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($38.75) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $11, Hero?

[Jour-Ne']

I'm guessing, that due to your exasperation, that you haven't seen villain take a line like this before. Is he capable of check raise semi-bluffing the flop? As he hates folding to three bets pre it adds more suited combos to his range IMO, maybe QJs+ KTs+ A10s+ all being hands he could raise with on CO and call a 3bet (suited connectors?) additionally 66+

Is villain stupid enough to check raise a set OTF and so blatantly show fear of the third heart.

In each situation I don't think villain is going to fold, either because they have the flush (and can't realise that you had a big hand pre, therefore not jamming) or aren't tight/ thinking enough to fold to a flush themselves.

Fold (plead crit my logic)

[rpm]

vs more "standard" 50nl regs (which i associate with 75-85% FT3b stats) i probably flat here and jam over every absolutel ANY turn lead because they never have a set and we block almost every flush draw (assuming they normally 4b/felt AK, which seems reasonable in my experience). and also because 50nl regs seem to love repping absolutely nothing and still playing back at you. however this guy's flop C/R deserves more credit imo because he probably flats all pairs and a ton more suited shit than your average reg to a 3bet. so he connects better with this flop. he can have a ton of draws and some sets. this obviously makes this turn card one of the worst ones in the deck. also, if he does check/raise the flops with lots more than just sets and decent draws, i doubt he ever takes this sizing on the turn with his pure bluff range because he has set up stacks to be able to jam. and if he's bluffing it makes no sense to bet so small here given we called a flop C/R and the board only got wetter when the turn fell.

in the play of the hand i would probably just formulate some rigid plan like "he's probably C/R bluffing me a lot so i'm going to flat and jam over his turn lead or snap him off if he jams". however with the benefit of unlimited time to make a decision, i honestly feel like folding here too. though that does leave me with that awful feeling you get when you feel like you may be being hugely exploited. in conclusion: don't know but i'm inclined toward folding.

edit: so i just realised i didnt really say anything that you didnt say in 1/10 the word count in your OP. oh well.

[Jour-Ne']

If you could kindly explain rpm..?

By saying that we block almost every flush draw with Qh do you mean that if villain has a flush there is an outside chance we improve to the best hand? This in itself is not a + EV situation to jam turn.. but

In combination with the fact they never have a set (why is this with a draw heavy board?) are you saying we might be good?

I realise what you were saying was hypothetical for a standard reg and I'm not questioning what your saying, more trying to learn how other players think.

[aka_red]

he's blocking with a worse pair.

[acg123]

I think fold is best, you have position on him and will find better spots in the future to get your money back. I think hE NEVER bluffs with this turn bet.bi mean it could be a blocking bet with Ahx with x being a 4 or a pair that's on the board, but is he really calling a 3b with A4o? Not very often if ever. I think he has the nuts very often in this spot and at worst he has a set. Maybe I'm thinking all wrong, if so someone slap me! Lol

[rpm]

better spots in the future to get your money back.

Maybe I'm thinking all wrong, if so someone slap me! Lol

SLAP

[baudib]

I go with Red's explanation. I don't think he has a flush here very often; he thinks you're airballing, c-r with a pp and doesn't know what to do on the turn.

[rpm]

even if he is turning some middle pocket pair range into a bluff, aren't there probably as many sets/flush draws as 99-JJ? or are we arguing for these being heavily discounted based on his line/sizing etc?