Flat, Fold or 3b ed. 2

[surviva316]

UTG is a 23/19 over 100+ hands. He's mildly positionally aware (plays like 17/17-ish from early positions, steals a lot from the button and plays the blinds uber tight). He folds to 3b's ~75% and has folded 1/1 as an MP opener. I haven't played him much postflop, but I think he's pretty decent for these stakes and makes his money by playing bet or fold.

Both flatters are fish. The first one is a 54/7 over 25 hands. I don't know how he responds to 3b's but he has a massive Call PFR number.

The second one I have no hands on but posted first hand in with 25bbs and is overcalling his first hand playing, so he's likely bade.

I would have awesome relative position if I flat, but for the fact that the two fish have minuscule stacks.

Refer to the title. If you favor a squeeze be sure to specify sizing because I think this is a very interesting spot for sizing.

Merge No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (6 handed) - Merge Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($5.14)
MP ($0.99)
CO ($1.20)
Button ($4.43)
SB ($10.35)
surviva (BB) ($4.17)

Preflop: surviva is BB with J, A
UTG bets $0.12, MP calls $0.12, CO calls $0.08, 2 folds, surviva ???

[Huey_Freeman]

I'm against 3betting, because if the CO/MP jams, then you've burnt money. I don't like calling either, cos this hand doesn't do great multiway...and you're OOP. Explain your relative position comment tho plz.

This is a fold for me.

[daven]

squeeze 52c

[surviva316]

Explain your relative position comment tho plz.

Relative position is where I am in relation to the PFR. The assumption is that all action centers around the preflop aggressor, so that if I hit a hand, I can check to the PFR. He'll do one of two things:

1) He'll bet - In this case by the time it's my turn to act, I will already have known how many people have decided to continue and will be able to see if anyone has raised or not so I can make a much more informed decision. I'll also close out the action on that street so that there is no risk of anyone squeezing me.

2) He'll check - In this case, the two fish will have the action passed to them by the preflop aggressor which makes the fish way more likely to bet themselves.

[NightGizmo]

I'd 3bet to about .50. It's a bluff against the UTG player, but since he opens wide enough, folds often enough, and we have blockers, it's a good bluff. It's for value against the other two players. If UTG 4bets then we fold -- if he folds and either of the two shortstackers 4bets, we call. Life sucks if the UTG player calls.

[gingerwizard]

fold.

Fold to 3bet is very positional dependent particularly for solid positional players like this who raise wide in LP and are good enough just to fold to 3bet. They don't raise crap UTG and I don't think they fold much of their raising range to a 3bet. Certainly not 75% which includes all those LP raise-fold times.

The fish are really too short to try and ISO, you have terrible position (abs and rel) if you raise and your hand doesn't really have enough improvement potential for getting fruity.

Fold > call (rel position is at least nice), > 3bet IMO

[surviva316]

I'm pleased to see people so split down the middle on these threads lol.

I'll include a poll in the next one

[NightGizmo]

I agree that it's not a great bluff to make if the UTG player was the only one involved in the hand, but doesn't the extra money from the fish make it more profitable? If he's raising 17% from EP, that's still a pretty wide starting range and I think we'll get more folds than we need to make it profitable.

[gingerwizard]

Still OOP to possibly two short fish with a marginal hand in a 3 bet pot. (and that's the times UTG folds).

[Huey_Freeman]

I'm pleased to see people so split down the middle on these threads lol.

That's probably more down to deficiencies in poker knowledge from everyone (including myself) really.

This particular hand seems a fold most of the time. Can someone show me it's +EV to do this using numbers?

[daven]

This particular hand seems a fold most of the time. Can someone show me it's +EV to do this using numbers?

everyone folds, 60%

[Huey_Freeman]

everyone folds, 60%

Sick maths bro

[daven]

Sick maths bro

'twas a guess - i'm 20 tabling and distracted. Close enough?

[Imthenewfish]

fold but squeeze if fish are deeper

[kickass]

fold but squeeze if fish are deeper

This seems right IMO. I don't think calling is ever right in this spot.
Fold>squeeze>set your dollaz on fire

[Roid_Rage]

Idk.

I really like the idea of squeezing to ~55c. Say UTG folds and one of the fish calls. We have a very bloated pot w/ less than PSB remaining. Would pretty much just shipit holla on any flop but like KQ3ss or something.

If UTG calls we kinda just -____- and proceed to b/f good flops, and c/f probably a lot.

GW's advice isn't unreasonable tho. Good hand for discussion.

[surviva316]

Interested why anyone wants to squeeze any more than $0.44.

UTG can't just assume that he's gonna get a good price based on the chance of players behind him calling (in fact, the fear of them resqueezing him out seems like more of a concern than anything else), and obviously neither of the shorties are priced in due to their stack sizes.

[Roid_Rage]

Because thats what I've been programmed to do.

[NightGizmo]

I like raising slightly larger here to make the flop super easy to play. The fish aren't going to change their preflop calling range much based on our sizing, so we are getting more +EV when they call us with their weak range. Assuming UTG folds and at least one of the fish call, we have a SPR of at most .5, which means we just cbet all-in on almost every board. Even if we miss, the small SPR means that our bluff only has to work a small percentage of the time to be profitable.

[surviva316]

I like raising slightly larger here to make the flop super easy to play. The fish aren't going to change their preflop calling range much based on our sizing, so we are getting more +EV when they call us with their weak range. Assuming UTG folds and at least one of the fish call, we have a SPR of at most .5, which means we just cbet all-in on almost every board. Even if we miss, the small SPR means that our bluff only has to work a small percentage of the time to be profitable.

i mean, regardless of our sizing, we're playing go-and-go with the fish. .44 would make the pot at least 1.14 with at most effective stacks of 0.96.

The reason I'd think going lower would be better is because we're 3b/folding to UTG, so we wanna give ourselves a better price on the squeeze.

[NightGizmo]

i mean, regardless of our sizing, we're playing go-and-go with the fish. .44 would make the pot at least 1.14 with at most effective stacks of 0.96.

The reason I'd think going lower would be better is because we're 3b/folding to UTG, so we wanna give ourselves a better price on the squeeze.

True, but the main reason we're 3betting is to get value from the fish, not to bluff the UTG out. The EV we get from the fish when they call is way larger than the EV from bluff raising the UTG (that part may actually be negative, depending on how often he calls or 4bets). So I'd rather get the fish' money in the pot preflop. Makes our preflop 3bet more profitable (against the fish, anyway) and makes our flop cbet bluffs more profitable.

[gingerwizard]

Why are we so obsessed with isolating short "fish" upon whom we have very little data.

One can argue that fish one with his 57% hands played in 25 is a fish pre. But it is only 25 and that will include some ill judged "blind defence" and some pf limping. Here he is calling a raise so his range, though weak, is not as weak as normal. We also don't know that he is a spazz post flop with any pair yet.

"fish" number two is in his first hand and all we have are reads are that he posted and is playing a shorter stack. Posting in the CO is not uber terrible, and after 1 caller of an utg raise, there are a lot of hands it is worth calling with getting 3.25-1 and having decent position post flop. I'd like either more information than 1 street before deciding he's a fish, a bigger stack so that it's worth the gamble, or a better hand.

[rpm]

if i squeeze i go to around 0.45. our goal is to get to play vs the fish if we do squeeze. and also to potentially fold out some of UTG's better hands/flips. going on the "only bet enough to get the job done" philosophy, i think 0.45 will be enough to get UTG to play sensibly, and doesn't burn any unnecessary money the times he 4bets us. it also sets up an SPR of 1 at greatest vs either of the fish. which is cool. i think this is actually my preference. 3bet to 0.45. fold to any further aggression from UTG because the range he does that with has us crushed, and obviously call if off if either fish jams because they have KQ/small pairs often enough.

i think calling and folding are pretty similar in EV. sounds nitty but i don't hate a fold here (if, for arguments sake, 3b wasn't a possibility). AJo doesn't play too well OOP vs 3 opponents

[Micro2Macro]

just fucking blast it you've got 2 fish calling an open and you're oop make it like 50 something fuck even 60 is sweet then utg will play super face up no matter what and u know damn well one of these fish is calling you every time. now isnt the time to try and give yourself the best price on stealing this pot pre cuz it isn't happening that often.