Bottom set in raised family pot

[Pelion]

No huge history with Villain - he seems like a pretty standard 10NL TAG. The half pot cbet seems like a TP type hand that wants to know if someone outdrew it.

His cbet on the flop is probably something like KQ+, KK+, with QQ/JJ slightly discounted and JQs heavily discounted (since lots of TAGs don't seem to PFR this, and I expect him to cbet bigger with 2pairs/sets).

Flop:
I don't think I can just flat the cbet with one caller already showing interest and 2 left to act when there are so many cards that will kill my hand/action 5 way.I don't think the flop raise/call changes his range much. He probably calls at least one with TPTK+, which is a lot of his cbetting range 5 way, and probably doesn't feel he needs to ship anything on this flop.

Turn:
What's the best line to get the rest of the money in (assuming that's what we want to do?). I feel like AsQs is his only possible draw, so I don't mind giving a free card, and I feel like if the money goes in on the turn,he is going to have a very strong range since it was 5 to the flop (probably not even AA/KK). Is it better to check and keep his range relatively wide to get value from more one pair hands on the river, or just b/c and accept that we will sometimes hit JJ/QQ?

The fact that I'm nervous about getting it in now, makes me think I shouldn't have raised the flop, but we can't be flatting the cbet 5 way surely?


NL Texas Hold'em, $0.05 / $0.10 (5-handed) - Played on Poker Stars
. Converted by GrinderSchool's Hand History Converter

Seat 1: UTG ($10.86 ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 15, AF: 3.0, Hands: 35
Seat 2: CO ($13.14 ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, Hands: 147
Seat 3: HERO (Btn) ($26.93 ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 13.3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 36
Seat 4: SB ($2.25 ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 5, 3B: 9, AF: 0.0, Hands: 22
Seat 6: BB ($7.90 ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 3

SB posts small blind $0.05
BB posts big blind $0.10

PreFlop: Dealt to HERO [7 7]
UTG raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, HERO calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

*** FLOP *** J Q 7 (Pot=$1.50)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70, HERO raises to $2.10, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.40, CO folds

*** TURN *** 3 (Pot=$6.40)
UTG checks, HERO Makes a plan ($8 ish behind)

[daven]

pick a size where ideally hands as weak as AQ/KQ will feel a need to continue. I like between $1.80 and $2.30 here, without a massive read i don't think you can bet-fold this spot, and i don't think he's check-calling the weak part of his range often enough if you go much bigger.
I hate checking it back cos i like money.

[rong]

Shoving has merit, it may look like you are trying to protect a weak hand. But in general about 3.25-3.50, easy to shove river, any bigger seems threatening and any smaller looks trappy.

[rong]

Shoving has merit, it may look like you are trying to protect a weak hand. But in general about 3.25-3.50, easy to shove river, any bigger seems threatening and any smaller looks trappy.

[bikes]

no more than 2.5

[Pelion]

Daven, if you bet that sizing you will have a PSB left on the river. Are you shoving when he checks to you?

[TeUnit]

i think you bet small, unless you think the villian will think something is up

also think you want to set up the river sizing, so he cant get away and all the money goes in

dont like the check raise option, looks way to strong to me

[Pelion]

jesus fucking christ - more bots reply than people

[chemist]

jesus fucking christ - more bots reply than people

What do the bots like about "Bottom set in raised family pot"?
The bot mind boggles.

I'd just be thinking half the pot $3 and same amount on the river if they call and check again.

[daven]

Daven, if you bet that sizing you will have a PSB left on the river. Are you shoving when he checks to you?

if you bet $2 and he calls then pot is $10.40, villain has approx $6.40 behind
river $4 or river shove both fine.

[daven]

river $3.80 is nice, depends on the river card though

[WeldPhaser]

river $3.80 is nice, depends on the river card though

it def gets harder and harder to make money off sets, even @ 10nl the "Tags" will just fold when we raise so often. When we get action it makes you wonder, but I think he 3b's QQ/JJ almost always OTF, I like the $3/OTT, & $3/OTR. It may leave a little behind , but you may just get him to call off w/ worse made hand.

Oh, the reason I quoted daven, Im curious, what would we do if we bet $3 OTT, villain calls, and a T hits and he Donk shoves on us? Can we get away with $5 behind? I would say yeah, but I'm dumb..

[kickass]

Betting small on the turn is cool but I still wanna ship the river.

[Savy]

Betting small on the turn is aidzzzzzzz as we've been though in chat.

[daven]

Betting small on the turn is aidzzzzzzz as we've been though in chat.

care to explain the preferred option and why?

[daven]

Oh, the reason I quoted daven, Im curious, what would we do if we bet $3 OTT, villain calls, and a T hits and he Donk shoves on us? Can we get away with $5 behind? I would say yeah, but I'm dumb..

if he check calls turn and a ten hits and he shoves then we call. He pretty much never has AK with that line

[griffey24]

Betting 2.5-3 seems fine