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25NL - Can I turn 2 pair into a bluff on 4 straight river?

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  1. #1

    Default 25NL - Can I turn 2 pair into a bluff on 4 straight river?

    Villain is 22/18 TAG who doesn't like folding to 3bets or cbets. His 3bet fold is 43% and cbet fold is 20% after 200 hands. (In hindsight, this may indicate that he is pretty unbluffable generally.)

    This 6max table has just become heads up and I have no indication that he has changed his game much. I have been stealing blinds for a few hands since HU.

    I feel like his flop raising range is fairly weak since a lot of draws are possible and he can't really have AA/QQ/AQ. He probably even 3bets A7s some % of the time preflop and doesn't call Q7. I also feel like he rarely has Jx on the river, and will usually have some kind of 2 pair worse than AQ. The problem is, most of those beat me.

    All I beat if I check back are the naked flush draws and QTss. I want to turn my hand into a bluff, but I'm not sure how well I rep a J either. I could certainly have AJ, and Jxss. Maybe even TJ, although turn sizing may persuade him otherwise. Also, he may decide that I would check back the river with AK which would make him more likely to call with the 2 pairs that beat me.

    • Is this a potential bluff spot against a) more typical foldy TAG, and b) this guy?
    • If you are firing, what size?
    • Comments on turn sizing? - Reasoning at the time was that I felt he was often weak, wouldn't raise often, and would turn most of his hands face up by calling as well as allowing me a free showdown. Looking back, I'm not sure if we shouldn't make it more like $4.50-$5.00.


    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (SB/BU): $27.45 (109.8 bb)
    BB: $32.08 (128.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB/BU with 7 K
    Hero raises to $0.62, BB calls $0.37

    Flop: ($1.24) 7 Q A (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2

    Turn: ($6.74) K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50

    River: ($13.74) T (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $???,
    Last edited by Pelion; 09-04-2013 at 06:44 PM.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  2. #2
    Check
  3. #3
    Ye I really don't see the harm in checking here.
  4. #4
    I think he has Qxss, or some FD or air here so I'm fine checking back river.

    Turn I would fire pretty hard, $4.50-5, as I'm pretty confident we're good on turn and he's pretty polarized and not folding Qxss.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    if you bet here then it's for value. Pretty damn thin though. Check it back even though you lose to KTss and it looks like a sexy spot.
    bigger on turn.

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