Stone cold bluff flop raise in 3bet pot

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is pretty loose and aggressive, 30/23 with 8% 3bet, very high flop AF.

Anyone like this or do you all think I'm a spewtard?

If you do think I'm a spewtard, look at his flop sizing - I mean, who does that with an overpair?

EDIT: I also think we rep pretty wide, like a quarter of our range can raise the flop.


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $10.30 (41.2 bb)
SB: $29.18 (116.7 bb)
BB: $23.75 (95 bb)
UTG: $80.50 (322 bb)
MP: $30.18 (120.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $45.44 (181.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN folds, SB raises to $2.25, BB folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.75) 2 4 6 (2 players)
SB bets $1.95, Hero raises to $6

[Pelion]

I don't think we rep all that wide. What is our range here and what can we raise?

Regardless, I think this is a pretty good spot for a raise. I don't even think this is called a stone cold bluff in 2013. We have plenty of ways to backdoor something, and by raising we should fold out better Ax and probably stuff like A4s. We also probably gain the A as an out when called. I would estimate close to 20% equity when called.

With AQ I would be more inclined to just flat the flop.

[Carroters]

Have a think about your sizing and whether it's optimal.

[Carroters]

I'm also not super happy about preflop but I defo flat less 3-bets than a lot of guys. It's probably fine, 8% is not a huge 3b% by any means though so I'd definitely be selective as to how wide my flatting range got here especially if I had no reads on villain's barreling frequencies in 3-bet pots. I'd prefer suited broadways that make top pair more often and have some straight possibilities to AxS. First thing to look out for and note stright away is whether he's 3 betting polarised, linear, or a random mix as I'm sure some 25NL guys do.

[griffey24]

I really like your hand choice for a bluff raise. Any 3, 5, 7, 8, or spade seems decent for additional equity (22 outs - 44% of turns), plus an ace is pretty decent (6%), so half the time we're in decent shape when called.

I agree with carroters on sizing. I think your sizing is FAR too big. You're very polarized here, to overpairs/sets and air. No need to raise so big, I'd make it $4.35-4.60ish.

[Pelion]

I agree with carroters on sizing. I think your sizing is FAR too big. You're very polarized here, to overpairs/sets and air. No need to raise so big, I'd make it $4.35-4.60ish.

I don't fully understand this part. Shouldn't we be more willing to bet/raise larger sizing when we are polarized to nuts/air and villain is likely to have lots of non-nut hands with showdown value? The larger we bet, the more we win with our monsters and the more bluff combos we can put in our range.

I can see raising smaller to keep his range weak with some AK type hands that we can barrel off on the turn (and to keep sizing less awkward for a turn barrel), but I'm not sure that's what you're talking about.

Either way, there isn't going to be much left for the river.

[griffey24]

Yah sorry I wasn't really trying to relate the polarized to sizing. More a comment that in this spot we're very polarized. I can't think of any hand in our range that we would be raising that we would want to make it that size chosen by OP.

My entire raising range would be raising to $4.35 - $4.60ish, maybe 5ish but not 6.

[daven]

If you do think I'm a spewtard, look at his flop sizing - I mean, who does that with an overpair?

his flop sizing is consistent with an overpair or any air
you've found a spot that is fine to bluff-raise, but your raise seems too big

[rpm]

if the call pre is +EV (i would have no idea) then i think raising flop is fine. backdoor nut-flush draws are likely going to be the best semi-bluff candidate hands in our range on a flop like this (especially the lower ones with less high-card showdown value) except perhaps 8s7s. i think we should go smaller though, and i'd assume we'd do the same (sizing) with sets on such a dry board.

[The Bean Counter]

Bluff is probably okay given the flop misses the majority of his 3-betting range. That said, I don't see anybody raising this board for value at 25nl on Stars and I would probably jam over you as a bluff if I was villain as you look FOS.

I prefer floating flop and raising turn or betting turn when checked to. Presumably you don't raise sets and slow-played big pairs on this flop so I'd want my line to be consistent with that, especially if I turn additional equity.

[abelardx]

I like it. Wouldn't do it too often but you have to keep the bastards honest. If he calls, I'd shut down without turning more equity.

[BorisTheSpider]

OK so a couple of thing:

1. It's not as "stone cold" as I described, and people seem to like our backdoor outs. I guess even if they don't actually give us much equity on the flop, they give us a good chance that we turn some additional equity to continue applying pressure with. I must start thinking about this more, since at present I don't ever really consider backdoor outs.

2. Sizing comments confuse me. The flop pot is $4.75, he bets $1.95 so if I go somewhere in the middle of the range Griffey suggested and make it $4.50, then it's $2.55 back to him in an $11.20 pot, nearly 4.5:1, it marginally prices him out from drawing to bare overs but I don't think that will stop a lot of people, so it means we'll have to barrel more when we've just been called raising the flop, which seems spewy.

So I don't understand - everyone seems to be saying my sizing is bad, so I believe it is, but I'm not sure why.

[BorisTheSpider]

I don't think we rep all that wide. What is our range here and what can we raise?

If our range is [A2s-AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo, 22-QQ] we can raise QQ-TT, 66, 44 and 22. So I overestimated - it's more like 20% of our range than a quarter, but there's still quite a bit we can raise.