[10NL] KK...Value bet river?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 40/23/0 (3bet) over 91 hands. FTCB 60%.

Couple of notes on villain: Serial min-raiser, opened w/ weak hands from any position, villain doesn't seem pos. aware.

Had history w/ villain; he had called my raise earlier in a similar spot w/ 54s, he min/r me on the flop when he had flopped a flush, he followed that up by betting fairly small on the turn (~20% PSB IIRC) and we ended up GII.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $5.15 (VPIP: 29.31, PFR: 27.59, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 60)
BB: $12.29 (VPIP: 20.25, PFR: 12.66, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 82)
Hero (UTG): $10.02
CO: $7.89 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 23.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 91)
BTN: $24.84 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 111)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K K

Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.85, 2 players) T 2 4
Hero bets $0.60, CO raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($3.25, 2 players) T
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($3.25, 2 players) 6
Hero ???

I feel like b/f is standard here but thought I would post.

[OngBonga]

Hmm no 3bets pre from villain? I guess he can have JJ or QQ. Obv he has lots of Tx in his range, boats and probably missed flush draws too. I think I just c/c this unless he makes it huge on the river, I don't feel there's much worse we're getting calls from but he can certainly turn missed draws into a bluff.

[BorisTheSpider]

I agree with Ong, gotta c/c here - let him stab at it with his busted flushes. QQ/JJ will sometimes vbet too. I'm calling up to about 2/3 pot, above that usually folding unless I had a read.

[Tom1559]

Tough position. Looking at the way the hand has gone I would be tempted to bet on the River probably half pot and then see what he did in response. There is not much beats you here except a 10 or if he has trips with any of the smaller cards on the flop. I would rule out AA or he would have re-raised your original bet. If he re-raises or pushes I would probably let it go unless of course you have any reads on him bluffing previous hands. Be interested to see how it worked out.

[d0zer]

3b flop, fish ain't folding a T or FD.

[OngBonga]

3b flop, fish ain't folding a T or FD.

Yeah agree with this. We stacking it happily? I can't see me taking a 3b/f line on flop vs this guy.

*edit... obv we're stacking if we 3b, stupid question.

[abelardx]

I like c/c'ing the river to value call vs busted draws but b/f'ing to get calls from pps and weaker one pair hands and maybe big Ax is fine too. If you bet I'd make it like half pot.

[griffey24]

I'm 3b the flop vs a seemingly bad/loose/passivey player and expecting to stack his top pair / charge his draw.

As played, what's his AF?

[Savy]

b/f river because x/c is just missing out on all the value from stuff he'll check down unless you have any reads that he is going to take a stab with all the stuff that he missed with as in general people don't value bet thin enough in a spot like this.

[OngBonga]

Savy, what do you think villain calls a river bet with that he doesn't vbet himself when checked to? I'd expect him to fire river with JJ-QQ.

[Cobra_1878]

I'm 3b the flop vs a seemingly bad/loose/passivey player and expecting to stack his top pair / charge his draw.

As played, what's his AF?

AF is 3.

[d0zer]

I'd expect him to fire river with JJ-QQ.

Meh not all the time, fish get scurred of those paired boards. Some will fire out smallbets with those hands, I just wouldn't rely on it here imo.

[OngBonga]

You're probably right dozer, but it feels like if we bet river this is pretty much all we can expect value from. Actually I dunno, he's fucking 40/23, we can probably expect calls from 33 up if we keep it small, and I totally expect him to check back 99 down. So maybe like $1.50 gets crying calls from loads of crap that beats AK but loses to KK.

[griffey24]

I don't mind a check here mostly because some ppl believe that their line "omg looks like a boat" and might bet the river now.

If the turn was a brick 6 or something, I would probably lead the river. Even in this spot I don't hate a river b/f, but it's close.

[kickass]

I seriously doubt im good enough to bet/fold in this spot which leads me toward checking and calling but I imagine most of the time we do end up calling we are beat and when he chks back he might well have called a bet.

[Savy]

Savy, what do you think villain calls a river bet with that he doesn't vbet himself when checked to? I'd expect him to fire river with JJ-QQ.

He doesn't.

We either need to bet/fold or check/fold. It's as simple as that, if we assume that x/c is good then b/f is better because he will always call wider than he will bet and he ain't folding out enough that checking makes it better.

[OngBonga]

I think I'm coming round to b/f to be fair. I wasn't really taking into account how loose this guy is. I just think we need to avoid getting greedy, and have the discipline to fold when raised.

[BorisTheSpider]

I'm 3b the flop vs a seemingly bad/loose/passivey player and expecting to stack his top pair / charge his draw.

As played, what's his AF?

This doesn't compute. If he's passive, then as soon as he does anything non-passive, I generally want to assign him a nutted range for doing so. I don't see how we can profitably 3bet the flop - if he's passive, he won't raise a draw, and he likely wont raise top pair, he'll station us down because that's what passive players do. OP has also seen him minraise a flopped flush - he probably only does it with a nutted range.

In fact, I really don't want to c/c river like I said earlier, now I've more carefully read the OP, because villain certainly does sound passive. I think I prefer to b/f river. I think villain can have 22/44, can also have 55-99 and have raised the flop "for information".

[BorisTheSpider]

he will always call wider than he will bet and he ain't folding out enough that checking makes it better.

Yeah, I'm coming round to agreeing with this, with the proviso that I do think he might sometimes minraise the flop with a flushdraw, then take a small stab at the river unimproved.

[griffey24]

This doesn't compute. If he's passive, then as soon as he does anything non-passive, I generally want to assign him a nutted range for doing so. I don't see how we can profitably 3bet the flop - if he's passive, he won't raise a draw, and he likely wont raise top pair, he'll station us down because that's what passive players do. OP has also seen him minraise a flopped flush - he probably only does it with a nutted range.

In fact, I really don't want to c/c river like I said earlier, now I've more carefully read the OP, because villain certainly does sound passive. I think I prefer to b/f river. I think villain can have 22/44, can also have 55-99 and have raised the flop "for information".

In my experience, flop min-raises from bad players is very often top pair hands.

Not sure if it represents something diff at these stakes.

[BorisTheSpider]

In my experience, flop min-raises from bad players is very often top pair hands.

Not sure if it represents something diff at these stakes.

Well I'd be _more_ worried about a turn minraise, but I dunno if he does it on the flop with a flushdraw. If he only does it with top pair and sets, then if we give him a generic top 40% range for calling preflop then I guess he does have a lot of Tx, and we have like 70% equity against his sets and tens as a whole.

I also think the turn check after flop raise can easily be something nutted, and although the turn makes Tx less likely, he now has us crushed by his tens.

Even if he minraises 55-99 on the flop "for information" and flats JJ/QQ pre then minraises the flop for value and shuts down when the turn pairs the ten, we still aren't far ahead of his entire range of [QQ-44, 22, ATs, ATo, KTs, KTo, QTs, QTo, JTs, JTo, T9s].

If he's a station, we can vbet the river profitably against [QQ-JJ, 99-77, 55] which is 45% of his range, and if he folds everything other than the overpairs we really can't vbet the river at all.

I guess it depends how much of a station we take him for, after the turn check I do still want to b/f river, but I don't think it's that clear cut after properly analysing his range. One reason I want to bet is so I don't have to be the station when he stabs with a busted flush, but I probably shouldn't be thinking that since I don't think he raises it so often on the flop.